Trump is going to be reelected....

[GUBU]

...if he remains healthy, is not assassinated, etc.

My reasoning is simple:

1)  The Federal Reserve is going to be forced to raise interest rates here soon, as inflation is spiraling out of control.

2)  Peak Oil has likely arrived, or, is about to; the US will deplete its emergency reserves sooner or later.

3)  Kamala Harris, while completely competent, is widely despised due to racism, sexism, anti intellectualism, etc.  The only real question is if President Biden will resign after the midterms to give her a fighting chance or not.

When #1 and #2 happen, the US economy will tank, resulting in a major recession, if not depression.  People will blame the Democrats; Trump will ride the economic misfortunes of the poor working class, along with the religious conservatives, to victory.

He wasn't elected in the first place. He was imposed.