Russia and Ukraine

[pocaracas]

Why does Russia feel threatened??

I expect if you look at Libya or Iraq or Syria or Afghanistan, and what the US has done there recently, the possibility of America attempting regime change in your country would seem undesirable.

Who thinks that the present regime is a good one? (that is, besides those in power in Russia)

Generally the US wants other countries to have rulers which take orders from the US, so that the IMF and other American-controlled institutions can control their economies. They privatize the nation's resources and make sure the profits never go to the people of the country. 

LOL! Just look at what an Oligarch is and how the term originated in Russia.
Russia's resources were state owned in the USSR times, then they were privatized - and what happens when you privatize a literal monopoly? Nothing good.
Sure, the very wealthy few that this generated would not be happy with a state-enforced breaking of all the monopolies they control.
Does this state need to be "controlled" by the US in order to provide better conditions to the Russian people? I don't think so, but ok, I can see how those powerful oligarchs would not want the present regime to change... however, attacking Ukraine (and the potential defeat) would have been a hugge gamble, if that was their fear.

Losing control of your own country and having it become a puppet of people who don't really care about anything other than resource extraction wouldn't be most people's first choice. 

Think of Allende 1973, for example.

Think of Belarus 2022, for example.
Think of what Russia seems to want to do in Ukraine, for example.

"We can't let you do to us what we want to do to others, so we do to others before you do to us"... is that a sensible foreign policy?

Russia has a large amount of valuable energy. If they are able to freely sell it when and where they wish they have more power than the US wants them to have. It reduces America's control of western Europe and encourages new alliances with BRICS countries in which the US has far less sway. 

Germany (and the EU) were trying to get Russia to be their own owners and negotiate with the World... hence betting quite a lot on Nordstream (remember that 50% of German energy came from Russia via that pipeline)...
And yet, it seems to me that Russia decided to show themselves to be unable to stay in their lane and carry out their foreign businesses peacefully.
If the US comes to control anything in Russia, it will be entirely the present Russian regime's fault.

Russia today has
- Depleted military
- Fleeing youth - brain drain
- A populace (at least in the big cities) that is tired of the state propaganda

All signs of diminished capabilities to withstand anything the rest of the world throws at them. Be it the US or China...
Russia should have consolidated its position as a world supplier of raw energy. Instead, it's having to sell it on the cheap.

Congratulations on playing the stupid part, Mr Putin!
And that is something that I find difficult to believe someone in power over 100 million people would do.

It doesn't seem surprising to me that most Russians would like to preserve their national sovereignty in fact as well as in name. Putin is popular at home, but even people who aren't crazy about him are probably even less excited about becoming a de facto colony of the US. 

Are you implying that the Europe is a de facto colony of the US?
Judging by the world health, happiness and satefy indexes, I'd say that the NATO countries are just fine as they are, when compared to the BRICs.

Or there was Whitlam in 1975 who found out that winning an election isn't protection against the CIA kicking you out of a job. Or Hatoyama in 2010, who discovered that attempting to enact the will of the people in Okinawa can get you out on your ear right away if Hillary Clinton tells you to stop.

Unless the Russia High Command believed that their military really could take over Ukraine... which is now clearly not so. 

I understand that the armchair generals have a very clear view of the future. I am skeptical. Much of what I read seems based on propaganda-fueled fantasy and wishful thinking. History teaches that underestimating Russia seldom works out well. 

There is of course the possibility that the US would nuke them in order to prevent a takeover of Ukraine. If this happened Russia would lose, but so would everyone else. 

I certainly hope that nukes are off the table.... if they are not, we are looking at world war. Is it worth it? Is the fear of a regime change worth world nuclear war? If it gets to that, there will certainly be a regime change.

History does not apply to the nuclear age. In that regard, Russia is just as capable as any other. No one wins.

That is why I think there must be another reason for this invasion.

What is this reason?

I don't know.

Considering what will likely happen when the invasion is lost, Fear of NATO being close by and Fear of a regime change are stupid reasons. that will lead faster to that which is feared.