RE: Russia and Ukraine
May 4, 2023 at 12:04 pm
(This post was last modified: May 4, 2023 at 12:05 pm by The Grand Nudger.)
(May 4, 2023 at 9:11 am)Leonardo17 Wrote: Another factor is that the F-16’s are virtually defenseless toward Russian SAM batteries. One retired pilot says that “They don’t even have a fighting chance”I think that's part of western military's risk averse philosophy. That and the airframe itself have combined to produce a 76-1-5 ratio of air to air kills, air to air losses*, and ground to air loses. The f15 has an even better ratio. Still. I think it's uncontroversial to say that no fighter has any chance, by those risk averse standards, over saturated and operational air defense. The mig29s they fly certainly don't...and yet....
Quote:Yet some are relativizing this point of view by saying that the training of Ukrainian Pilots who know how to operate Soviet-Era fighter jets would only take 2 to 6 months and that the F-16 would provide to the Ukrainians some of the capacities they need:Keyword some, and that goes to the heart of it. Ukrainian pilots would..I'm certain, fly f16s if they had them. If it's our credible worry that this would be an unacceptable risk environment for those pilots, it seems that this would be a compelling reason to provide them with them with those other capacities, rather then deny them the capacities of a budget workhorse like an f16. We have reasons for not giving ukraine f16s, "too much missile" isn't one of them, imo.
Quote:Also the problem with the fleet of the USAF is that it is rapidly aging and is losing its advantage toward the PLA Airforce which has a rapidly growing fleet of J-20’s with underground bunkers in mainland China that will protect these planes from US + Allies missile barrages.Barring any other thing that night happen to china in the next decade... Yeah, it's hard to see how they wouldn't be. I don't know why we'd be firing missile barrages into mainland china, but I guess that is the worst possible timeline experiment. As I understand it, the j20 was designed to be a credible threat to us carrier groups, so..at present anyway, it'd be facing off with super hornets, not f16s. Same basic issue either way, though. Importantly, it does mean that a program to replace the f16 would have little to no effect on the makeup of carrier based aircraft. Not even the same branches.
So one approach could be to deliver these to Ukraine / Taiwan + other countries in need while switching to F-35’s + the next-next generation fighter that is set to make its appearance in the 2030’s.
If I am reading this correctly China is set to become a formidable military adversary in the next decade.
*the air to air losses are disputed, potentially higher.
I am the Infantry. I am my country’s strength in war, her deterrent in peace. I am the heart of the fight… wherever, whenever. I carry America’s faith and honor against her enemies. I am the Queen of Battle. I am what my country expects me to be, the best trained Soldier in the world. In the race for victory, I am swift, determined, and courageous, armed with a fierce will to win. Never will I fail my country’s trust. Always I fight on…through the foe, to the objective, to triumph overall. If necessary, I will fight to my death. By my steadfast courage, I have won more than 200 years of freedom. I yield not to weakness, to hunger, to cowardice, to fatigue, to superior odds, For I am mentally tough, physically strong, and morally straight. I forsake not, my country, my mission, my comrades, my sacred duty. I am relentless. I am always there, now and forever. I AM THE INFANTRY! FOLLOW ME!