2016 Prediction

[DeistPaladin]

I may have already posted this but in case I haven't, I wanted to share my prediction well before 2016.

There's a pattern I've noticed in the Republican Party: When there's not a sitting GOP president running for re-election, the runner up in the last primary is the nominee in this one. That's been the pattern in every primary held within my lifetime.

1976: Reagan in the runner up, losing to Ford. He's the nominee in 1980.
1980: HW Bush is the runner up, losing to Reagan. He's the nominee in 1988.
1984: Reagan is the sitting president running for re-election.
1988: Dole is the runner up, losing to HW Bush. He's the nominee in 1996.
1992: HW Bush is the sitting president running for re-election.
1996: Buchanan is the runner up, losing to Dole.

OK, we seemed to have a break in this pattern at this point but it doesn't entirely count because Buchanan was the nominee in 2000 ...for the Reform Party. This was Buchanan's choice, as he renounced the GOP and switched parties. Would he have been the GOP nominee if he'd chosen to stay in the fold?

2000: McCain is the runner up, losing to W Bush. He's the nominee in 2008.
2004: W Bush is the sitting president running for re-election.
2008: Romney is the runner up, losing to McCain. He's the nominee in 2012.
2012: Rick Santorum is the runner up, losing to Romney...

Will the pattern hold?

[Minimalist]

Santorum IS crazy enough for the republibertarianeo-conazi douchebags.

The Dems worry me. The only thing that Hillary is better than is any republicunt who might run against her. She, herself, is nothing special.

[Jackalope]

Better, but not good, IMHO.

DP's prediction is right in line with mine: the Republicans are going to double down on batshit crazy again.

[DeistPaladin]

The Dems worry me. The only thing that Hillary is better than is any republicunt who might run against her. She, herself, is nothing special.

You've heard she's running to the right of Obama, yes?

You know, I wonder how many times the Democrats need to get their electoral asses handed to them running the "just like the GOP but not quite as crazy" strategy before they realize it doesn't work?

[Minimalist]

Worked last time. And the time before that.

Bottom line - where would the progressives go? We have two parties.

A center right party - the democrats.

And a batshit crazy bunch of fuckheads - the republicunts.

Not a lot of choice.

[Polaris]

Republicans may win by a narrow margin because the Democrats have been sabotaging themselves since Obama took office (well starting in 2006, which is why the Tea Party had such an unexpected success).

Progressives can vote Green. It's fear by votes that keeps other parties from gaining representation, fear that the Democrats and Republicans prey upon to keep the status quo.

[stonedape]

I'm about as liberal as they come, but I'm ready to swallow my pride and vote for Ron Paul. We really need a libertarian to straighten out our foreign policy and the federal reserve. If things keep going the way they've been going the dollar is either going to collapse or start going to start ww3 to preserve it's relevance.

[Anomalocaris]

I suspect on foreign policy Hilary will be an interventionist ideologue nearly as disastrous as GWB. Only 3 things will save her foreign policy from being as disastrous as those of GWB:

1. hopefully, the lack of a another 9/11 to give her a completely free hand as it did GWB's handlers.

2. The military has long been politicized and will not support a democrat CinC to the same degree as a republican one

3. Republicans will run against her rather than for any policy, this will force her to seek shelter from democratic base.

[Minimalist]

Progressives can vote Green.

Yeah...thanks. That fuckheaded strategy stuck us with Bush the Dumber.

[stonedape]

Progressives can vote Green.

Yeah...thanks. That fuckheaded strategy stuck us with Bush the Dumber.

Depends on what state you live in. If you live in a swing state, you might want to play it safe. If you live in a decidedly blue or red state, then don't waste your vote on the establishment. How else will they adapt?