Why do Trump supporters think he's going to win

[Thumpalumpacus]

I don't think he was saying Trump was stupid, though. I think the gist was closer to pointing out that Trump's impetuousness often gets the best of him.

Oftentimes, clearly, the politic thing to do would be to moderate his message. Just as often, Trump speaks his views without considering the consequences.

[abaris]

I don't think he was saying Trump was stupid, though. I think the gist was closer to pointing out that Trump's impetuousness often gets the best of him.

But I don't think he's talking out of his ass at any time. He gives the impression, but he's a businessman. And, going by my own professional experience, businessmen never say anything without being coached by a PR team.

I might be wrong, but that's business as usual.

[Thumpalumpacus]

The thing is, going back decades, Trump has had the habit of surrounding himself with lickspittles who tell him what he wants to hear ... meaning they may well be advising him to do exactly as he has done. His campaign team isn't terribly experienced at this level, unlike Clinton's.

She's playing rope-a-dope, and it will pay off in November.

[abaris]

The thing is, going back decades, Trump has had the habit of surrounding himself with lickspittles who tell him what he wants to hear ... meaning they may well be advising him to do exactly as he has done. His campaign team isn't terribly experienced at this level, unlike Clinton's.

She's playing rope-a-dope, and it will pay off in November.

As I said, I may be wrong, but he's pulling every right wing trick in the book. Maybe it's his true self or maybe it's someone coaching him to attract as many protestors as possible. Trump was always good at selling himself. In fact, it seems that is the only thing he ever was good at.

[Minimalist]

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/06/carl-ber...t-nominee/

Carl Bernstein: Donald Trump is a ‘pathological liar’ and America’s first ‘neofascist’ nominee

The underlying story here is who is Donald Trump? And I will say, and have said, that we are seeing the nominee of a major political party for the first time in our history, who is a neofascist, a particular kind of neofascist — a strong man who doesn’t believe in democratic institutions.”

[Wyrd of Gawd]

Anyone who thinks Trump will win is not paying attention. Check out these numbers. Something will have to change very dramatically for him to even have a chance.

The poll is measuring the wrong thing.  The only voters that count in the Presidential election are the Dem voters in the Blue States.  If they outvote the Repub voters in the Blue States then Hillary will win.  Trump will carry all of the Red States that Romney won in 2012 but he needs to pull off some of the large Blue States in the East and Great Lakes area.

[ReptilianPeon]

I wonder how much the "shy Trump voter" phenomenon is affecting the polls? In the UK there is the well documented "shy Tory" which polyesters have to account for. It's conceivable that there are some people who are too ashamed to admit they the support Trump.

Read more:
http://www.skepticsannotatedbible.com/qu..._name.html

[robvalue]

If Trump gets in and we leave the EU, I'm moving to Mars.

[Thumpalumpacus]

The thing is, going back decades, Trump has had the habit of surrounding himself with lickspittles who tell him what he wants to hear ... meaning they may well be advising him to do exactly as he has done. His campaign team isn't terribly experienced at this level, unlike Clinton's.

She's playing rope-a-dope, and it will pay off in November.

As I said, I may be wrong, but he's pulling every right wing trick in the book. Maybe it's his true self or maybe it's someone coaching him to attract as many protestors as possible. Trump was always good at selling himself. In fact, it seems that is the only thing he ever was good at.

No doubt he's tugging at strings, and it's quite possible he's expressing sentiments that he doesn't himself share. All that means, to me, is that he's misestimating the (in)tolerance of the American public. Don't get me wrong, there are far too many bigots here as matters stand, but as legislation and court-rulings over the last ten or so years show (assuming they're a metric for public sentiment, which I think they are), Americans are more tolerant than Trump gives them credit for.

He is making the mistake of playing to his base after he has sewn up the nomination. At this point, he should broadening his appeal, not constricting it. Fine, I say. I'm not alone in thinking that Trump's candidacy is actually good for America, insofar as it shows how far we have yet to go, no matter the advances we've made the last two decades. It is riling Democrats, and I think will result in a large Democrat turnout, which not only bodes ill for Trump's candidacy, but for Republican aspirations in Congress.

He is good at selling himself; his stature as the presumptive Republcan nominee is powerful evidence for that. But that was a matter of selling red meat to hungry folk. He has a different, and far greater, challenge ahead.

Hilary has a very experienced staff which excels at opposition research. They have all his ugly words catalogued, video on file, and no doubt have a few commercials already in the can, with more to be made -- but right now she is hoping to nurse a small margin into a larger one without using them. They repesent a massive retailiation capability in the event the numbers get closer towards election day -- should that occur, she will then machine-gun several different ads, chosen for their appeal to the demographic being contested; or she's husbanding them for a spoiling attack in the event her legal difficulties deepen.

[ReptilianPeon]

If Trump gets in and we leave the EU, I'm moving to Mars.

I'm not sure I trust Hilary with the nuke codes either. Trump is driven by money. He's a rather simplistic person. Hilary driven by a lust for political power/influence which I think is more dangerous. The leaked DNC documents (from the Gucciifer2 hack) show that she is willing to do whatever it takes to get elected. She also takes money from anyone and everyone so she is awful in that respect too. She itching to repeat the mistakes of Iraq and Libya in Syria.