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RE: What will you be doing on election night?
November 5, 2016 at 12:11 pm
(November 5, 2016 at 11:11 am)Alex K Wrote: (November 5, 2016 at 11:03 am)Brian37 Wrote: I will be watching the returns. I don't think it will be a late night at all. I think it will be called for Hillary between 10 and midnight.
That'll still be between 3 am and 5 am for us poor 'peans...
No, it will be an early call. There will be no Florida hanging chads or 2000. Regardless of Trump's gains in the past few days, Hillary is still closer to the finish line and basically Trump has to sweep all the toss up states and that is not going to happen. I'd only question the polls in FLA some favor him and others favor her, but surveys have shown there a revolt by republican women so don't be surprised if fla gets called for Hillary.
He can take Fla and Ohio and NC and still lose in any case. He will not win all the toss up states. Hillary only needs her base, leaning and a couple of toss ups and she will get them. It will be called before midnight.
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RE: What will you be doing on election night?
November 5, 2016 at 12:30 pm
(November 5, 2016 at 12:11 pm)Brian37 Wrote: (November 5, 2016 at 11:11 am)Alex K Wrote: That'll still be between 3 am and 5 am for us poor 'peans...
No, it will be an early call. There will be no Florida hanging chads or 2000. Regardless of Trump's gains in the past few days, Hillary is still closer to the finish line and basically Trump has to sweep all the toss up states and that is not going to happen. I'd only question the polls in FLA some favor him and others favor her, but surveys have shown there a revolt by republican women so don't be surprised if fla gets called for Hillary.
He can take Fla and Ohio and NC and still lose in any case. He will not win all the toss up states. Hillary only needs her base, leaning and a couple of toss ups and she will get them. It will be called before midnight. She does not need any toss ups to win. As you say, she can lose fl, Oh, and NC, and still win. She does not need NV, though that would be nice. NH is her only apparent weak spot, and it's still fairly strong. She just needs to hang on to Min, Wi, Pen, and Michigan (and NH), and all of those except NH have polled ALWAYS in her favor, Trump has nearly no chance there. If she loses NH, then it COULD be an electoral tie 268/268, but if she picked up any other tossup like NV, NC, Fl or even the second district of main, it would put her over.
It's a little closer than I would like, and I'm still feeling nervous about the whole thing and can hardly wait for it to be over, but for now her firewall states are mostly strong.
Betting sites Have trump between 3 to 1 and 5 to 1 odds. 538 still gives Clinton a 65% chance to win, and they are THE most conservative estimate out there. Most places give Clinton between a 75% and 90% chance at this point.
I guess we'll see in 4 days....
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RE: What will you be doing on election night?
November 5, 2016 at 12:34 pm
I'm just happy the election is going to be over soon.
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RE: What will you be doing on election night?
November 5, 2016 at 12:45 pm
(November 5, 2016 at 12:34 pm)Bella Morte Wrote: I'm just happy the election is going to be over soon.
Bella, you have to really try to understand WHY Trump would be bad for the country. He sets a very dangerous tone in politics. He isn't basing his attacks on economic substance, but has been only doing such because more people pay more attention this close. He has built his support based on the same tactics of fear and hyper nationalism and scapegoating on par with WW2 Germany. In his case godwin's law DOES apply. I am not saying that lightly or simply as a slur, that literally is what he is doing as a political tactic.
Reagan did not run his campaign like Trump, Bush Sr did not run like that, and as inept and destructive to our economy Jr was, not even he ran a campaign like Trump has. It
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RE: What will you be doing on election night?
November 5, 2016 at 12:46 pm
(November 5, 2016 at 12:45 pm)Brian37 Wrote: (November 5, 2016 at 12:34 pm)Bella Morte Wrote: I'm just happy the election is going to be over soon.
Bella, you have to really try to understand WHY Trump would be bad for the country. He sets a very dangerous tone in politics. He isn't basing his attacks on economic substance, but has been only doing such because more people pay more attention this close. He has built his support based on the same tactics of fear and hyper nationalism and scapegoating on par with WW2 Germany. In his case godwin's law DOES apply. I am not saying that lightly or simply as a slur, that literally is what he is doing as a political tactic.
Reagan did not run his campaign like Trump, Bush Sr did not run like that, and as inept and destructive to our economy Jr was, not even he ran a campaign like Trump has. It
I stopped supporting Trump a while back.
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RE: What will you be doing on election night?
November 5, 2016 at 12:54 pm
(November 5, 2016 at 12:34 pm)Bella Morte Wrote: I'm just happy the election is going to be over soon.
Bella, you have to really try to understand WHY Trump would be bad for the country. He sets a very dangerous tone in politics. He isn't basing his attacks on economic substance, but has been only doing such because more people pay more attention this close. He has built his support based on the same tactics of fear and hyper nationalism and scapegoating on par with WW2 Germany. In his case godwin's law DOES apply. I am not saying that lightly or simply as a slur, that literally is what he is doing as a political tactic.
Reagan did not run his campaign like Trump, Bush Sr did not run like that, and as inept and destructive to our economy Jr was, not even he ran a campaign like Trump has. It is a very real threat to peddle that kind of rhetoric in politics. No, it is not ok to joke about using the second amendment against rivals, it is not ok to promote the arrest of political rivals, that is what courts and law enforcement do. When you have followers shout "execute her" please explain to me if you'd find that acceptable if Hillary's followers were shouting the same thing.
His words have power, and it does not matter if one wants to claim those are the far base not the middle, it is a tone that pulls that party to the far right and it has. So if you don't condone a follower shouting that, then you yourself should not be voting for a candidate that lights that fire then makes excuses as to why it is ok. In politics his level of hate and demagoguery is TOXIC to the idea of peaceful transfer of power.
He has run his campaign like an episode of Jerry Springer but the problem is this is not his personal shock jock TV show and real humans can and will be hurt by his words. This is no joke, this is not about economics, this cuts to the core of the difference between maintaining and destroying our system.
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RE: What will you be doing on election night?
November 5, 2016 at 12:55 pm
Again, I stopped supporting him a while back.
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RE: What will you be doing on election night?
November 5, 2016 at 1:04 pm
(November 5, 2016 at 12:55 pm)Bella Morte Wrote: Again, I stopped supporting him a while back.
Great, glad you wised up. But not voting or voting third party helps him. My mom wont admit it, but I am betting with all my arguments over this season, and with everything Trump has said about women, and the fact we both voted for Bernie in the primaries, my mom, a lifetime republican for the most part, I am betting voted for Hillary. My mom has this thing with me, and always has, on just about every issue, doesn't like admitting she is wrong. She has always admitted it by switching the subject or joking about it. So when she now says she voted for Micky Mouse, I know she didn't vote for Trump. I know she doesn't like Hillary, but I have pointed out that Bernie supports her.
Hillary like her or not is our only choice as a nation. I am not talking about your right to vote for anyone you want. I am talking about the real impact and dangerous impact a Trump win would have.
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RE: What will you be doing on election night?
November 5, 2016 at 1:09 pm
(This post was last modified: November 5, 2016 at 1:12 pm by account_inactive.)
(November 5, 2016 at 1:04 pm)Brian37 Wrote: (November 5, 2016 at 12:55 pm)Bella Morte Wrote: Again, I stopped supporting him a while back.
Great, glad you wised up. But not voting or voting third party helps him. My mom wont admit it, but I am betting with all my arguments over this season, and with everything Trump has said about women, and the fact we both voted for Bernie in the primaries, my mom, a lifetime republican for the most part, I am betting voted for Hillary. My mom has this thing with me, and always has, on just about every issue, doesn't like admitting she is wrong. She has always admitted it by switching the subject or joking about it. So when she now says she voted for Micky Mouse, I know she didn't vote for Trump. I know she doesn't like Hillary, but I have pointed out that Bernie supports her.
Hillary like her or not is our only choice as a nation. I am not talking about your right to vote for anyone you want. I am talking about the real impact and dangerous impact a Trump win would have.
I'm not American, nor do I live in the US, so I can't vote in any US elections at all. My support for him wouldn't have made a world of difference in the first place. I don't have any issue with admitting when I am wrong as I have done so many times on this forum.
If, and that's a big if, I ever find myself moving to the US in the distant future and gaining citizenship, you can bet your ass I would be voting third party. The two main parties need to be told to go fuck themselves.
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RE: What will you be doing on election night?
November 5, 2016 at 1:26 pm
(November 3, 2016 at 8:13 pm)Casca Wrote: I warned my wife that I watch these elections like it's a big sporting event. Each time they call a state, is kind of exciting for my nerdy self.
Will you be watching election coverage all night? Or do you have other things you'd rather do?
I wake up at 4 am for work on Wednesdays, so I hope the election is called earlier than 2012's.
Working until midnight, but I'm allowed my laptop. I would rather be comfortable at home watching the coverage, but at least I'll be able to catch it.
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