North Korea launches ballistic missile across northern Japan, falls into sea

[CatholicDefender]

I honestly worry a lot about North Korea. Almost makes me think it was right to take out Saddam, since he also had Nuclear ambitions, but did not yet have the means to fulfill them.

Part of me wonders why Kim doesn't just invade South Korea immediately. If he did it would take the US and Japan weeks to provide aid and sufficient soldiers, and weeks would be far too late. Kim has one of the largest armies in the world and I don't think the South on it's own could really hold him off for long.

Not that this is a reason for war at all, but if I lived in the North I might really welcome an American (or any) invasion as long as it led to the end of the Kim dynasty.

Imagine American soldiers in North Korea, throwing out cigarettes and chocolate bars to the needy children and other people. To say it is just an enormous version of Auswitz really isn't much of an exaggeration.

I do believe though that China might stop him if he ever tried to do it.

How does Russia view North Korea?

[Fireball]

Huh? I don't get it. Is that something nitrogen gas would happen in a nuclear war?

Nope. If you are concerned about suffering a lingering death from radiation poisoning, and want to end your life quickly and painlessly, the nitrogen exit method is the real deal. If you manage to get fried in a nuclear fireball (that's my big brother, lol), you will never know what hit you.

[Anomalocaris]

The only thing the Chinese can do to stop him would be to invade and occupy his country.

Don't you think tighter trade sanctions -- say, not buying any DPRK coal, or not selling it any oil -- would if not stop the regime's shittery at least reduce its brinksmanship?

Keep in mind Kim's nukes are not just his insurance policy against an American led regime change.  It is also a insurance against a Chinese led regime change. America's track record of invading and deposing despots who do not sing our tune must be truly frightening to him. But at the same time he must also be worried that china is holding him up as a shield against American encroachment with one hand, and with the other hand scheming to replace him with a more pliant puppet. He is not going to go easy on his nuclear program just because it is the Chinese, and not the Americans, who are really squeezing him.

But for China's perspective, China will also never tighten the sanction to the point where North Korean economy will collapse. There are two main reasons

1. This is related to his nukes being an insurance against china as much as against the US.  For Kim the death of his regime means his own death because his family killed far too many people over almost 70 years, and far too many victims and family of victims would be looking for revenge if he loses the protection of his security services.  He knows this, and china knows he knows this, and there is no telling what a nuclear armed Kim regime will do in its death throes.  If Chinese sanction is the final straw that broke the back of his regime, he may well lob a few nukes into china as his final revenge before he is caught and killed.

2. China doesn't want American forces on its borders.  It doesn't want to engage in a dangerous race with American and South Korean forces to secure North Korea, with all the attendant possibiliites of two sides ending up shooting at each other. So it wants North Korea to survive.

So long as Kim regime has enough trade from china to survive, plus some amount to spare because china probably doesn't want to,cut it too close lest they misjudge and strangle North Korean economy by accident, he has room to follow his real priority, which is to make it very clear he can hurt the US and will not be cowered from doing so if the US threaten his regime.  The subtext is also he can hurt the Chinese and will not be cowered from doing so.  

America is his avowed enemy, china is his much resented benefactor.  Saber rattling against the US fits his narrative, and threatening china does not.   but the subtext is clear.  If North Korea can hit Guam. It can hit every major Chinese city.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Kim has one of the largest armies in the world and I don't think the South on it's own could really hold him off for long.

You might want to read up on this matter. Make sure you study some details.

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A really good reading on it, Chuck. Thanks for taking the time.

[Edwardo Piet]

Yes apart from the fact that:


He has a point here.

So my next question would be "Would the worst possible botching be worse than what I'd suffer in a nuclear war?"

Yes.  In a nuclear war you might be painlessly incinerated in a millisecond.   People who tried to blow their own brains out have missed and ended up with a deep, ghastly open trench across where their eye balls and sinuses use to be for life.

Couldn't a similar thing happen if I'm BARELY in cover in a nuclear war? So the blast is so strong it gets through the bunker but the bunker protects me enough that rather than getting incinerated in a millisecond I get severely injured to fuck, paralyzed and die a slow agonizing death?

Hmm. So it looks like the best option is to stay out into the open so I can feel the full force of blast and die instantly

In all seriousness, I'm not convinced by the whole "quick death is better" thing. A more painful death in a millisecond is far worse than a slow death, IMO.

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Huh? I don't get it. Is that something nitrogen gas would happen in a nuclear war?

Nope. If you are concerned about suffering a lingering death from radiation poisoning, and want to end your life quickly and painlessly, the nitrogen exit method is the real deal. If you manage to get fried in a nuclear fireball (that's my big brother, lol), you will never know what hit you.

See above. I think instant deaths are often more painful.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Yes.  In a nuclear war you might be painlessly incinerated in a millisecond.   People who tried to blow their own brains out have missed and ended up with a deep, ghastly open trench across where their eye balls and sinuses use to be for life.

Couldn't a similar thing happen if I'm BARELY in cover in a nuclear war? So the blast is so strong it gets through the bunker but the bunker protects me enough that rather than getting incinerated in a millisecond I get severely injured to fuck, paralyzed and die a slow agonizing death?

Hmm. So it looks like the best option is to stay out into the open so I can feel the full force of blast and die instantly

In all seriousness, I'm not convinced by the whole "quick death is better" thing. A more painful death in a millisecond is far worse than a slow death, IMO.

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Nope. If you are concerned about suffering a lingering death from radiation poisoning, and want to end your life quickly and painlessly, the nitrogen exit method is the real deal. If you manage to get fried in a nuclear fireball (that's my big brother, lol), you will never know what hit you.

See above. I think instant deaths are often more painful.

I'll take "quick" for a True Daily Double myself, Alex. Try watching someone die of liver failure or cancer ... it ain't pretty and there's still no do-overs.