What date do you estimate atheism will overtake theism in the world population

[Edwardo Piet]

People will always be fucking stupid. So despite part of me thinks that it may happen hundreds of years in the future.... part of me thinks "Never. There will always be some fuckers selling their organized religious crap to dumb fucks."

[SteveII]

The spread of religiosity is not evidence for rational belief of the idea; there could be many reasons for that uptake that speak in no way to the veracity of the belief.

We had a numbers game in the past when the world was flat and everything circled the Earth.

Easy answers are not equivalent to accurate solutions.

Okay, but it is evidence that this line of thinking (that atheism is prevailing against religion) is silly and unsupported.

[JackRussell]

The spread of religiosity is not evidence for rational belief of the idea; there could be many reasons for that uptake that speak in no way to the veracity of the belief.

We had a numbers game in the past when the world was flat and everything circled the Earth.

Easy answers are not equivalent to accurate solutions.

Okay, but it is evidence that this line of thinking (that atheism is prevailing against religion) is silly and unsupported.

I have no numbers on that. I know soft atheism is getting stronger in England. Silly ideas persist by the handful also. I am sure I hold a handful of silly ideas also. I hope to weed them out when the evidence is presented.

I ain't too bright, just a Cockney boy making good with the South Saxons.

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Sorry, honest answer.

In parts of the world I am sure religiosity may be growing.

More interested in why and what they believe and how it's changed.

Revolution and evolution, not rationalism, education, skepticism, equality and openness.

[The Valkyrie]

It will occur after my global genocide.

[Edwardo Piet]

The spread of religiosity is not evidence for rational belief of the idea; there could be many reasons for that uptake that speak in no way to the veracity of the belief.

We had a numbers game in the past when the world was flat and everything circled the Earth.

Easy answers are not equivalent to accurate solutions.

Okay, but it is evidence that this line of thinking (that atheism is prevailing against religion) is silly and unsupported.

Atheism is spreading faster than anything else last I heard.

[mordant]

The spread of religiosity is not evidence for rational belief of the idea; there could be many reasons for that uptake that speak in no way to the veracity of the belief.

We had a numbers game in the past when the world was flat and everything circled the Earth.

Easy answers are not equivalent to accurate solutions.

Okay, but it is evidence that this line of thinking (that atheism is prevailing against religion) is silly and unsupported.

I think it's quite premature to declare victory, but ultimate victory is not out of the question.

How long it takes, how it comes about, and how many fits and starts are involved, are all huge unknowns. And there are scenarios where religion wins big-time -- at least for awhile.

It's just hard to accept that dealing in reality is not ultimately a survival advantage. Dealing in reality has got us technology, longer life spans, greater comfort and self determination and the well-being that goes with it, already. Sure, some will cut off their nose to spite their face, but in theory at least they should tend to live shorter, meaner lives.

Then again, all evolution cares about is survival, not enjoyment.

Time will tell.

[rado84]

What date do you estimate atheism will overtake theism in the world population

Probably never. The majority of us will become atheists but there will always be a small group that will remain dumb (no offense, Catholic_Lady) and ignorant. Knowing how aggressive the most of them are to anyone who doesn't believe the same bullshit as they do (you know - "killing for god is not a murder"), this would lead to another war (assuming the WW3 has come and gone) where theists would try to wipe out all atheists and the latter will defend themselves by all means necessary. Which naturally would lead to the eventual extermination of theists.
That's the most likely scenario and yes, it's dark. But it's not hard to predict. Just remember all the atheists killed by christianity in all those several hundred years known as the Dark Ages. If you think this won't happen again, think again.

[Coveny]

I think it's quite premature to declare victory, but ultimate victory is not out of the question.

How long it takes, how it comes about, and how many fits and starts are involved, are all huge unknowns. And there are scenarios where religion wins big-time -- at least for awhile.

It's just hard to accept that dealing in reality is not ultimately a survival advantage. Dealing in reality has got us technology, longer life spans, greater comfort and self determination and the well-being that goes with it, already. Sure, some will cut off their nose to spite their face, but in theory at least they should tend to live shorter, meaner lives.

Then again, all evolution cares about is survival, not enjoyment.

Time will tell.

So in the scenarios where atheism wins what would you say the average time that atheism becomes the majority is?

[Fireball]

I think that the human propensity for assigning agency to random phenomena is going to be with us for eternity. It has served us well, so far. That said, if people inculcate their young with fantasy instead of reality, the problem of religion will persist. What I call "the problem of religion" is that part of the fantastic expectations of people who may be grasping for help/hope where none is available. Fantastic here means "in a fantasy", not "really great". It extends all the way from people being injured to people dying of old age; i.e., "Please, some external agency, save my loved one from death", and "Please, some external agency, make the time that my loved one is dead pleasant!". A Humanist movement that is recognized as a helping organization would go a long towards mitigating that attitude. The problem is that religious programming demonizes not just non-believers, but people who believe other than that stripe of their faith, and Humanist organizations have to fight that prejudice alongside trying to help, which takes energy from their actions.

---

I think it's quite premature to declare victory, but ultimate victory is not out of the question.

How long it takes, how it comes about, and how many fits and starts are involved, are all huge unknowns. And there are scenarios where religion wins big-time -- at least for awhile.

It's just hard to accept that dealing in reality is not ultimately a survival advantage. Dealing in reality has got us technology, longer life spans, greater comfort and self determination and the well-being that goes with it, already. Sure, some will cut off their nose to spite their face, but in theory at least they should tend to live shorter, meaner lives.

Then again, all evolution cares about is survival, not enjoyment.

Time will tell.

So in the scenarios where atheism wins what would you say the average time that atheism becomes the majority is?

I wouldn't call it "atheism wins", so much as I would like to think that humans would shed their superstitious ways and not educate their young in that mold. Like maybe in a million years. Religions pop up like toadstools.

[mordant]

I think it's quite premature to declare victory, but ultimate victory is not out of the question.

How long it takes, how it comes about, and how many fits and starts are involved, are all huge unknowns. And there are scenarios where religion wins big-time -- at least for awhile.

It's just hard to accept that dealing in reality is not ultimately a survival advantage. Dealing in reality has got us technology, longer life spans, greater comfort and self determination and the well-being that goes with it, already. Sure, some will cut off their nose to spite their face, but in theory at least they should tend to live shorter, meaner lives.

Then again, all evolution cares about is survival, not enjoyment.

Time will tell.

So in the scenarios where atheism wins what would you say the average time that atheism becomes the majority is?

Well as I said earlier it depends on how you define "wins". If you simply mean what people are in between their ears even if they don't admit it to themselves much less others, an atheist majority is probably < 100 years away, and has already arrived in some areas.

If you mean 50.1% of openly self-labeled atheists, then more like 500 years.

If you mean theism becomes such a fringe irrelevancy that the concept of "atheist" no longer even has meaning and religion has no significant cultural influence anymore, then more like 1000 years.

With respect to the first group, I usually have my 70 year old brother in mind. If you ask him in the right way, when no one else is around to hear it, he'll admit that he doesn't believe in god. But he still self-identifies as a Christian, in part in deference to his Catholic wife, and to a lifetime association of our extended family with fundamentalism. There are little plaques on the walls of his condo with Bible verses on them. He never openly talks about, much less against, god. He goes along to get along. Yet he has not been in a church in decades, has no prayer life, and I'm sure goes for days without thinking about matters theological -- despite that he once attended theological seminary and aspired to be a youth minister. For all practical intents and purposes he is an atheist, he simply can't admit it to himself much less to others. Yet he'll admit privately to me, the person he trusts most on such matters for discretion, that he doesn't believe. How many people are there like that? And how much of a "victory" is that?

Maybe this is the way you get from the first group above, to the last group. Not with anti-religious atheist activists protesting religion in force, but one heart at a time, privately giving up on the fever dreams of theism. In that sense, maybe both religion and atheism being irrelevant is much closer than I think.

There are just a lot of variables, such as that things can get very bad indeed (think: white nationalism / authoritarianism, climate change) and then people can either regress to theism or reject it as failed -- probably both, but in unknown ratio to one another.