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(March 3, 2019 at 10:25 am)Jörmungandr Wrote: While I agree with your general thrust, Brian, I think, if I'm not mistaken, research has shown that it is variance which is to blame for more accidents and fatalities, not the speeding itself. While you may feel justified in not matching the speed of the traffic around you if that traffic is going faster than the speed limit, your doing so is more likely to result in an accident or even a death. I think in the grand scheme of things, that outweighs your concerns for the legality and possible ticket you might receive. That being said, the appropriate thing is for faster traffic to stay to the left, and slower traffic stay to the right. That way everybody is happy. If you are speeding in the slow lane, or going slow in the fast lane, then you are the problem.
This reminds me of the debate about when to merge into traffic from an entry ramp. The common intuition is to merge as early as possible, but I believe the conventional wisdom is that you should delay merging until you are required to do so. I don't know if this rests upon any research, or instead is just convention, but again, it appears to be a case where intuition seems to suggest that deviating from the norm is the best course, when in fact it may not be.
There's no research that I know of that shows "variance is to blame for more accidents and fatalities, not the speeding itself."
Three of the top four hits for "variance and traffic accidents" on Google:
Quote:"But when the speed limit is 65 on a roadway with design speed of 80, some people will drive at 62 and some will drive at 75 or 80," he continued. "When all cars are traveling at fairly similar speeds, there is less variance and fewer accidents."
The study was based on the number of fatalities and vehicle miles traveled on individual roadways extracted from New York State Department of Transportation reports.
Absolute mortality decreased by 28.3 percent on the New York State Thruway, the primary focus of the study, when the speed limit was raised from 55 miles per hour to 65 miles per hour., the study found. Adjusted for vehicle miles traveled, there was a 42.5 percent decrease in mortality.
Quote:An observational study conducted by AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety over the course of 4 years. The study chose 36 locations to conduct their study. These locations included rural interstates, urban interstates, and freeways/expressways. The researchers chose sites that are similar to each other, to limit confounding variables, and that had adequate accident data, adequate exposure data, and that were easy to collect new data. Since the study was conducted over the course of four years, it is reasonable to assume that the sample size is large enough. This study observed a direct correlation between speed variance and accident rate.
Quote:"They drive too fast" is the cry of many citizens when discussing how people drive on Interstate 81. At times this refrain is directed to the trucking industry and at other times to drivers in general.Consequently, some people have suggested the speed limit should be lowered to 55miles per hour on I-81.
However, research shows that faster travel is not necessarily associated with an increased risk of being involved in a crash.
When vehicles travel at the same speed in the same direction – even high speeds, as on interstates – they are not passing one another and cannot collide as long as they maintain the same speed.
Conversely, when vehicles are traveling at different rates of speed, the frequency of crashes increases, especially crashes involving more than one vehicle. The key factor is speed variance. The greater the speed variance, or the distribution of speeds, the greater the number of interactions among vehicles. Thus, passing maneuvers and opportunities for collision increase. Speed variance, not necessarily high speed, is associated with an increase in the frequency of crashes.
Interstate highways in Virginia such as I-81 generally are designed to accommodate traffic traveling 70 mph. This is called the design speed. Typically, people drive at or near the design speed because it is comfortable for them. When speed limits are set substantially below the design speed, research and experience show that most drivers will exceed the posted speed limit. In fact, before the rural interstate speed limit was raised to 65 mph in1988, the majority of vehicles were traveling faster than the posted 55 mph.
Research also shows that when the speed limit is below the design speed, there is an increase in speed variance, which is associated with a higher risk of crashes. Vehicles at either end of this speed distribution – the slowest drivers and the fastest drivers – are more likely to be involved in crashes.
March 3, 2019 at 8:34 pm (This post was last modified: March 3, 2019 at 8:51 pm by Gawdzilla Sama.)
Yeah, it's okay to speed. Just don't complain when you trash a car load of kids.
And, of course, head-on accidents are real killers. ("Spoilered" for gore.)
Three of the top four hits for "variance and traffic accidents" on Google:
Quote:"But when the speed limit is 65 on a roadway with design speed of 80, some people will drive at 62 and some will drive at 75 or 80," he continued. "When all cars are traveling at fairly similar speeds, there is less variance and fewer accidents."
The study was based on the number of fatalities and vehicle miles traveled on individual roadways extracted from New York State Department of Transportation reports.
Absolute mortality decreased by 28.3 percent on the New York State Thruway, the primary focus of the study, when the speed limit was raised from 55 miles per hour to 65 miles per hour., the study found. Adjusted for vehicle miles traveled, there was a 42.5 percent decrease in mortality.
Quote:An observational study conducted by AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety over the course of 4 years. The study chose 36 locations to conduct their study. These locations included rural interstates, urban interstates, and freeways/expressways. The researchers chose sites that are similar to each other, to limit confounding variables, and that had adequate accident data, adequate exposure data, and that were easy to collect new data. Since the study was conducted over the course of four years, it is reasonable to assume that the sample size is large enough. This study observed a direct correlation between speed variance and accident rate.
Quote:"They drive too fast" is the cry of many citizens when discussing how people drive on Interstate 81. At times this refrain is directed to the trucking industry and at other times to drivers in general.Consequently, some people have suggested the speed limit should be lowered to 55miles per hour on I-81.
However, research shows that faster travel is not necessarily associated with an increased risk of being involved in a crash.
When vehicles travel at the same speed in the same direction – even high speeds, as on interstates – they are not passing one another and cannot collide as long as they maintain the same speed.
Conversely, when vehicles are traveling at different rates of speed, the frequency of crashes increases, especially crashes involving more than one vehicle. The key factor is speed variance. The greater the speed variance, or the distribution of speeds, the greater the number of interactions among vehicles. Thus, passing maneuvers and opportunities for collision increase. Speed variance, not necessarily high speed, is associated with an increase in the frequency of crashes.
Interstate highways in Virginia such as I-81 generally are designed to accommodate traffic traveling 70 mph. This is called the design speed. Typically, people drive at or near the design speed because it is comfortable for them. When speed limits are set substantially below the design speed, research and experience show that most drivers will exceed the posted speed limit. In fact, before the rural interstate speed limit was raised to 65 mph in1988, the majority of vehicles were traveling faster than the posted 55 mph.
Research also shows that when the speed limit is below the design speed, there is an increase in speed variance, which is associated with a higher risk of crashes. Vehicles at either end of this speed distribution – the slowest drivers and the fastest drivers – are more likely to be involved in crashes.
So, in other words, if everyone followed posted speed limits, there would be less accidents...
If you're frightened of dying, and you're holding on, you'll see devils tearing your life away. But if you've made your peace, then the devils are really angels, freeing you from the Earth.
"Driver inattention" is making gains. In 2000 the IHHS found that you were seven times more likely to be in an accident if you had a cell phone in the car. "In the car" because NOBODY admitted to being on the phone when the accident happened. It has only gotten worse.
March 3, 2019 at 10:31 pm (This post was last modified: March 3, 2019 at 10:32 pm by fredd bear.)
My Camry came with Bluetooth. I had it removed; I do not answer the phone while I'm driving. I am easily distracted, and I can't allow that while driving, it's too dangerous. I pull over as soon as I can and check the call.
It is an offence here to to use a Mobile phone while driving. This does not apply to hands free as far as I know.
Police here have 'mini blitzes', with special attention every couple of weeks. There are permanent large signs saying: "Police are targeting-----seat belt compliance, inattentive driving, purblind stupidity". (I made the last one up)
These days I bung on one of the music-for-old- farts stations, quietly, in the background., or perhaps some Chopin.
Was a time I would listen to parliament in Canberra on the way home. A distressing practice at first, as one realises what a bunch banal, self interested dickheads we elect every single time.(any party)
Anyway, I stopped listening after hearing one day (interjection)--"The honourable member plays with himself" Fair dinkum, I nearly ran into a tree.
Today federal parliament is on TV live. I honestly can't face it.
Three of the top four hits for "variance and traffic accidents" on Google:
So, in other words, if everyone followed posted speed limits, there would be less accidents...
No, in other words, what you "knew" was shown to be inaccurate with just a few seconds of research. How you came to the conclusion you have now reached is a subject that I'm not at all interested in exploring.
March 3, 2019 at 11:38 pm (This post was last modified: March 3, 2019 at 11:47 pm by EgoDeath.)
(March 3, 2019 at 11:26 pm)Jörmungandr Wrote:
(March 3, 2019 at 9:08 pm)PRJA93 Wrote: So, in other words, if everyone followed posted speed limits, there would be less accidents...
No, in other words, what you "knew" was shown to be inaccurate with just a few seconds of research. How you came to the conclusion you have now reached is a subject that I'm not at all interested in exploring.
I said there was no research that I knew of. I wasn't aware of it, is that a crime? Now that I've read up more on it, my opinion is, if anything, strengthened. If people chose to follow the rules of the road, i.e. the speed limit, the road would be a safer place. The very "research" you did proves my point. That people should simply follow the speed limit.
Given that "flow of traffic" is not a good enough excuse to get out of a speeding ticket, and given that speed limits are posted for a reason and enforced by law, it's logical and safe to do the speed limit. The people who are weaving in and out of traffic, i.e. VARIANCE, are the ones causing the issue. If everyone followed the posted speed limits within a +/-5MPH range, the road would be safer. Period.
If you're frightened of dying, and you're holding on, you'll see devils tearing your life away. But if you've made your peace, then the devils are really angels, freeing you from the Earth.
March 4, 2019 at 2:46 am (This post was last modified: March 4, 2019 at 2:47 am by fredd bear.)
"If everyone followed the posted speed limits within a +/-5MPH range, the road would be safer. Period."
From long observation, that seems to be pretty much the case here. I've always assumed that's an allowable variation.If for no other reason than (I believe, can't prove) that the accuracy of speedometers varies, especially with age.
My observation is that there are two broad types of driver who seem to cause a lot of accidents, if not the majority
OK three types if you include drivers under 25 years of age. In this country, that group is disproportionately represented in accidents, most especially fatal accidents. That doesn't prove younger drivers are poor drivers . That may be true, but I think it's just as likely because there are simply more of them on the road and they do more driving than older people.I guess, but a lot of 'em seem really stoopid to me.
The two types
The weaver; zig zagging through traffic at speed.
The old fart; drivers over 70, like me. Our reaction times are slower, our fine judgement may not be as good as it was. But mostly ,we tend to be over cautious, driving younger drivers nuts.. I suspect my group causes accidents, perhaps because younger drivers become impatient , and take risks
Statistically, we have fewer accidents than any other group.(this is reflected by car insurance premiums) I'd be interested to see the stats as baby boomers continue to age, because in my country, we are the largest demographic.
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