Why Trump will win in 2024.

[arewethereyet]

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.”
― Niels Bohr

I need to cross stitch that on a pillow. 

[arewethereyet]

Meh. I think America’s taste for fascism is as alive as ever, but their taste for Trump’s particular brand of drama-laden horseshit has waned. Or at least that’s what the midterms indicate. Even his windbag, die-hard supporters are growing tired of him constantly tantrum over an election that’s been over for two years.

The GOP will need to find a better criminal.  One who doesn't say the quiet stuff out loud so much.

[Nay_Sayer]

.....No.

[Anomalocaris]

Meh. I think America’s taste for fascism is as alive as ever, but their taste for Trump’s particular brand of drama-laden horseshit has waned. Or at least that’s what the midterms indicate. Even his windbag, die-hard supporters are growing tired of him constantly tantrum over an election that’s been over for two years.

The GOP will need to find a better criminal.  One who doesn't say the quiet stuff out loud so much.

Pretty sad that:

1.  In an entire political party of criminals they can’t even find one better than trump.

2.  Yet even such a party as this can still holds half of american electorate enthralled.

[LinuxGal]

Meh. I think America’s taste for fascism is as alive as ever, but their taste for Trump’s particular brand of drama-laden horseshit has waned. Or at least that’s what the midterms indicate. Even his windbag, die-hard supporters are growing tired of him constantly tantrum over an election that’s been over for two years.

Presidential elections cost a billion dollars.  Trump doesn't have it, and can't raise it. And Walker losing in GA proves his star is in the descendant.

[TaraJo]

I don't see Trump winning.  He's got too many negative traits and he's exemplified those traits tremendously during his administration.  

Also, in 2022, the Gen Z really made themselves known and there's going to be even more Gen Z voters in 2022 with even fewer baby boomers voting.  Gen Z is mostly pro-choice, pro-LGBT, pro-diversity and pro-multi-ethnic. These are all things Trump is against.  

Not to mention, there will be even more republicans who won't vote for him.  Not after January 6 and not after the last couple of years of them losing more elections than they should have.  The GOP has a tiger by its tail: they want to ditch Trump but they know he's going to make everything difficult for them if they do it.  The best the republicans can hope for is that Trump has a sudden heart attack and dies before the 2024 election cycle gets going.  

Also, it's difficult to unseat a sitting president.  It only seems to happen when they're monumentally bad.  Even Trump likely would have been re-elected if he hadn't completely ignored covid.  

I think the GOP can get Trump out of the way, but they're going to lose an election cycle or two while they do it because if he can't rule the party, he'll burn it down.  Yes, he's that spiteful.

Of course, there's always the possibility that Harper v Moore ruling will turn America into a one party state.  Let's hope the supreme court is smarter than that (I know, it's a stretch right now).

[Thumpalumpacus]

I don't think Trump will win. His support has a firm ceiling, and has for six+ years. Now that curious independents are aliented, he'll lose again.

Of course, that assumes he can mount a real campaign between depositions and trials ... or that he doesn't hork up a half-eaten Big Mac and choke on the grease.

Trump has given too many hostages to fortune, given to many weapons to his his opponents both Democrat and Republican, and those chickens will come home to roost ... again.

[Angrboda]

Not to mention with all the DOJ is finding, I wouldn't be surprised if Hoffa's body shows up at one of the Trump properties.

[TaraJo]

Not to mention with all the DOJ is finding, I wouldn't be surprised if Hoffa's body shows up at one of the Trump properties.

Not just that, but the DOJ ruling kills the best "qualification" Trump had.

See, Republicans spent decades preaching that government is bad, private industry is good.  And Trump was seen as someone who became a billionaire with private industry and very little to no government involvement.  The DOJ ruling changes that; his private industry is guilty of fraud and he isn't as good a businessman as he made himself out to be.  It would be like getting hired for your dream job just for your employer to find out that your entire college transcript was forged.

But, yeah, I still think Trump could win the nomination because all the republicans seem to stand for right now is pissing off democrats and Trump is good at that.  But he wins the nomination and he scares away moderate voters and they're the ones who actually decide elections.  If he loses the nomination, he'll probably cause so much trouble that he'll kill the republicans.  

But they're really going to have to drop their "politicians-are-bad" message or they're going to get someone else like Trump again.

[Jehanne]

I think the GOP can get Trump out of the way, but they're going to lose an election cycle or two while they do it because if he can't rule the party, he'll burn it down.  Yes, he's that spiteful.

Republicans in the Bible belt all the way up through Iowa and into Wisconsin hate Biden more than they dislike Trump. Voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Texas will vote for Trump because they hate the climate policies of the Democrats. Florida and South Carolina are a lost cause for the Democrats, as they hate transgenders (also true of the Bible thumpers). Indiana & Ohio are rock-solid Republican.

If they are to win, the Democrats will need to win Virginia (likely) and Georgia (improbable) in addition to the West and Upper East Coast states, along with Minnesota & Illinois, and the southwest states.

As for President Biden, the cracker is already slipping off the cheese, and he is likely in terminal cognitive decline.