Quote:Levels of switching are different for men and women. But at the global level, net movement due to the religious switching of men and women follows similar patterns. The chart below shows the projected total amount of movement into and out of major religious groups between 2010 and 2050 for countries with data on switching.

The largest net movement is expected to be out of Christianity (66 million people), including the net departure of twice as many men (44 million) as women (22 million). Similarly, net gains among the unaffiliated (61 million) are projected to be more than twice as large for men (43 million) as for women (19 million). Muslims and followers of folk religions and other religions are expected to experience modest gains due to religious switching. Jews and Buddhists are expected to experience modest net losses through religious switching.



http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/main-...on-growth/

(July 13, 2016 at 12:37 pm)SteveII Wrote:

(July 13, 2016 at 3:35 am)Jörmungandr Wrote: Your figures are a charade.

If you are replying to me, I don't remember using numbers. However, my point was that if we use adult conversions as a measure, we see that evangelical protestant Christianity seems to be the most compelling of the "loads of different theistic religions" that Rob observed.  If this conversion rate comparison was true for the past 2000 years (which it could be argued that, on average, it was) that indicates that Christianity is more compelling than other religions. 

Does compelling = true? No, not necessarily. But I think it is reasonable to conclude that adult conversions should be taken as a "vote" on the truth claims of any religion. 

If you look at the leaving rate for Evangelicals, it's not exactly good compared to other groups.

As for Evangelicals having the largest number of adherents in America, all this reveals is the current trend in America. Says nothing about the future or about the world overall.

Furthermore, even among Evangelicals, there are various denominations and disagreements on doctrines of Christianity. So there's alot of things being muddied here when putting all these subgroups into one bigger group and doing the stats on that one group.

And note also the entering rate for the unaffiliated group compared to the leaving rate. This particular group has "more compelling stats" than any of the other groups, including Christian groups.

(July 13, 2016 at 4:08 pm)Jörmungandr Wrote:

(July 13, 2016 at 12:37 pm)SteveII Wrote: If you are replying to me, I don't remember using numbers. However, my point was that if we use adult conversions as a measure, we see that evangelical protestant Christianity seems to be the most compelling of the "loads of different theistic religions" that Rob observed.  If this conversion rate comparison was true for the past 2000 years (which it could be argued that, on average, it was) that indicates that Christianity is more compelling than other religions. 

Does compelling = true? No, not necessarily. But I think it is reasonable to conclude that adult conversions should be taken as a "vote" on the truth claims of any religion. 

Or it could simply be a reflection of the fact that there are more Christians, period.  You're cherry picking Steve.  Since Christians aren't increasing in relative numbers you pick one statistic where they arguably have been making gains.  I note you've yet to back up that claim with any relevant data.  A table of U.S. conversions which shows that most are voting 'no' to affiliation with a religion isn't relevant. If adult conversion rates are high relatively speaking, that can only mean retention numbers are poor relatively speaking, because you aren't making any gains worldwide.  And the following graph shows that:  high numbers in Africa and Asia, low numbers in Europe.



Christian representation has been keeping par with global birth rates for over a century.  That's not a vote of confidence.  It's treading water.

You are missing my point. Rob's OP was about comparing religions. That is all I am doing. I think I demonstrated that Christianity is more compelling than other religions. Regarding your chart on religious switching, the only number that matters to my point is the incoming number compared to the incoming number of other religions. Leaving really isn't a factor since they define that as including being born into a religion.

(July 13, 2016 at 3:14 pm)robvalue Wrote: The atheists are prospering just as much as the Christians, so not really

So are all the Muslims and everyone else in the West.

meh...just riding the coattails. 

(July 13, 2016 at 4:45 pm)SteveII Wrote:

(July 13, 2016 at 4:08 pm)Jörmungandr Wrote: Or it could simply be a reflection of the fact that there are more Christians, period.  You're cherry picking Steve.  Since Christians aren't increasing in relative numbers you pick one statistic where they arguably have been making gains.  I note you've yet to back up that claim with any relevant data.  A table of U.S. conversions which shows that most are voting 'no' to affiliation with a religion isn't relevant. If adult conversion rates are high relatively speaking, that can only mean retention numbers are poor relatively speaking, because you aren't making any gains worldwide.  And the following graph shows that:  high numbers in Africa and Asia, low numbers in Europe.



Christian representation has been keeping par with global birth rates for over a century.  That's not a vote of confidence.  It's treading water.

You are missing my point. Rob's OP was about comparing religions. That is all I am doing. I think I demonstrated that Christianity is more compelling than other religions. Regarding your chart on religious switching, the only number that matters to my point is the incoming number compared to the incoming number of other religions. Leaving really isn't a factor since they define that as including being born into a religion.

It doesn't matter???

Why, because it's not a favorable stat for your particular group?

(July 13, 2016 at 5:13 pm)Irrational Wrote:

(July 13, 2016 at 4:45 pm)SteveII Wrote: You are missing my point. Rob's OP was about comparing religions. That is all I am doing. I think I demonstrated that Christianity is more compelling than other religions. Regarding your chart on religious switching, the only number that matters to my point is the incoming number compared to the incoming number of other religions. Leaving really isn't a factor since they define that as including being born into a religion.

It doesn't matter???

Why, because it's not a favorable stat for your particular group?

Because 85% of religious people will be born in a Christian home. So of course they will have the most leaving their birth religion. I am looking at who is coming in as a thinking adult.

(July 13, 2016 at 5:20 pm)SteveII Wrote:

(July 13, 2016 at 5:13 pm)Irrational Wrote: It doesn't matter???

Why, because it's not a favorable stat for your particular group?

Because 85% of religious people will be born in a Christian home. So of course they will have the most leaving their birth religion. I am looking at who is coming in as a thinking adult.

Why "of course"? I don't get the reasoning here at all. Since when did childhood religion percentage have an impact on adult leaving rate?

And why assume all adults coming in are doing so because they thought logically/rationally about it?

Right.  They could be easily impressionable fucktards like the rest of believers.

(July 13, 2016 at 4:45 pm)SteveII Wrote:

(July 13, 2016 at 4:08 pm)Jörmungandr Wrote: Or it could simply be a reflection of the fact that there are more Christians, period.  You're cherry picking Steve.  Since Christians aren't increasing in relative numbers you pick one statistic where they arguably have been making gains.  I note you've yet to back up that claim with any relevant data.  A table of U.S. conversions which shows that most are voting 'no' to affiliation with a religion isn't relevant. If adult conversion rates are high relatively speaking, that can only mean retention numbers are poor relatively speaking, because you aren't making any gains worldwide.  And the following graph shows that:  high numbers in Africa and Asia, low numbers in Europe.

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Christian representation has been keeping par with global birth rates for over a century.  That's not a vote of confidence.  It's treading water.

You are missing my point. Rob's OP was about comparing religions. That is all I am doing. I think I demonstrated that Christianity is more compelling than other religions. Regarding your chart on religious switching, the only number that matters to my point is the incoming number compared to the incoming number of other religions. Leaving really isn't a factor since they define that as including being born into a religion.

If Christianity has been keeping par with other religions, that doesn't demonstrate that it's more compelling than these other religions. Quite the opposite, it shows it's no more compelling than these other religions. So far you've claimed that adult conversion rates are higher for Christianity than other religions. Besides not having presented any data in support of your claim, this could be so for a lot of reasons besides it being 'compelling'. You've demonstrated no such thing. How could you, you haven't presented any support for your claim. And yes outgoing numbers matter if you're basing your whole argument on a claim that your religion is appealing to new people. How appealing it is to old converts then becomes relevant because appeal is the basis of your argument.

Rob's argument was that a true religion should realistically be expected to provide its adherents more than just belief. If you're claiming that your belief is appealing as belief, that's not an attack on Rob's argument.

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