(May 11, 2017 at 5:09 am)pocaracas Wrote: Spoiler alert!

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Finally, Sierra is out!!
You did enough damage with the sheriff thing.

I notice, whenever someone gets cocky and bossy, they tend to be voted out.... Andrea's next, then...

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Don't know what to make of that preview... it seems that some crazy stuff is coming.

Sarah looks like she's in a comfy spot.
Oddly enough, no one seems concerned about Michaela's anti-social behavior...
Cirie still gliding through while being friends with everyone... if she doesn't get voted out soon, she'll win this. It's a shame that she's not likely to ever win a challenge.
Andrea doesn't seem to be in a comfortable position, right now... I suppose she's going to sheep out for the next episode. I'd like her to stay on... at least for the eye candy.
Aubrey is also gliding through unnoticed... I could envisage a final three of Aubrey, Cirie and Michaela.

The guys... poor fellas.... always betting on the wrong horse. Tai and Brad can win a few challenges... but Brad will possibly be going home as soon as he looses one. Tai should start playing his idols... it's getting close.
The other guy, Troysand or however his name is spelled... he's gliding through... but always on the wrong side of the votes...

Anyway, there's still quite a bit of game ahead. 3 or 4 episode, right? We'll see what nonsense those starved folk do.

So that was a pretty slick move Sarah pulled there, getting Sierra to pass on her legacy advantage to her while knifing her in the back. I don't think that's going to win her Sierra's vote, and might cost her other votes if she were to get to the final, but it was a bold move that worked at least in the short term. I don't know that she fully thought out the consequences though. Then again, in a season like this where the entire playerlist is made up of cutthroats, maybe not. She'll have to make sure that whoever is sitting next to her at the end is pretty despicable, though - assuming she can make it, which I kind of doubt.

I don't think Michaela is on the radar all that much any longer - I think she's really softened up her demeanor, and frankly, I think she's not bad for keeping around to take to the end because no one really likes her that much, except Tai. She hasn't shown a knack for making big moves that I recall, and she's really only a threat as an underdog and as a threat to win immunity. I don't think either of those factors wins her many votes at the end.

Cirie is very much a threat to win the whole thing if everyone keeps passing her over for scrutiny. You haven't seen her prior seasons, correct? She is very, very good at the social game and it should be very apparent that she's no threat to win challenges (to me, one's ability to win challenges can get you farther, but it doesn't necessarily help you at the end - but the social game does).

If it comes down to your three of Aubrey/Cirie/Michaela, I think Cirie wins easily.

Troyzan is an enigma this season to me. He doesn't get much screen time, he's not making big moves, and as you say, he's on the wrong side of votes. He could go deep but he's going to have to step things up if he wants to win. Right now he has very little on his resume except that by virtue of being on the wrong side of the numbers, he hasn't really betrayed anyone of importance. That strategy has worked before (Hi, Sandra!), but it doesn't work often. There is, however, very little reason to vote him off.

I think Brad goes home as soon as he doesn't have immunity, simply by virtue of the fact that he's very good at challenges. I don't think he has a better than average chance of winning. However, having the benefit of a visit from his wife - who is a very good player - can only help him.

Absent a major change, I don't see Andrea going much farther.

There's 8 players left, and it's going to go down to 10 jury / 3 finalists or 11 jury / 2 finalists. I haven't heard which, if it's been announced, nor do I know how many episodes will air. 5 or 6 more have to go. They'll eliminate 2 or 3 in the finale, so 3-4 more episodes sounds about right. Maybe 5.

That latter point is important to consider what might happen with Tai. Assuming he doesn't get voted off with both idols in his pocket, he will almost certainly make it to the final 5 (at which point hidden immunity idols typically become inert). Can he win? I don't know. He's very likable, which works in his favor, but Survivor is not about finding hidden immunity idols, and doing so does not usually impress the jury.

I have a fair idea of what the final 6 looks like (everyone minus Brad and Andrea) but beyond that, no idea.

She's gone!!!!!!!

(May 11, 2017 at 5:09 am)pocaracas Wrote: Spoiler alert!

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Finally, Sierra is out!!
You did enough damage with the sheriff thing.

I notice, whenever someone gets cocky and bossy, they tend to be voted out.... Andrea's next, then...

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Damn it! I forgot when you quote a spoiler tag you SEE the what's hidden!
Luckily it's just who was voted out so no biggie, but still!

Quote:Oddly enough, no one seems concerned about Michaela's anti-social behavior...

It's been stated many times that she's generally hard to get along with so people have seemed to just stop commenting on it.

Quote:Cirie still gliding through while being friends with everyone... if she doesn't get voted out soon, she'll win this. It's a shame that she's not likely to ever win a challenge.

It's possibly because she's not a challenge threat that she has the ability to make it as far as she does. Look at Andrea: Andrea is a strategic threat like Cirie, and (to a less extent perhaps) a social threat like Cirie, but she's ALSO a huge challenge threat and everyone wants her gone because of it. Nobody (that we've seen) is talking about Cirie.

It occurred to me that Cirie is using Andrea as a meat shield the way Jeremy used Spencer as a meat shield in Cambodia.

Quote:Tai should start playing his idols...

He should save them (if possible) until he's guaranteed to make it to the final 4 (I think the last time you can use it is to get you INTO the final four).  That means, with 8 players left, he's gotta fly under the radar enough to make it through two more tribals and then he's guaranteed final 4 and possibly the goat spot in the finale.

Quote:Anyway, there's still quite a bit of game ahead. 3 or 4 episode, right? We'll see what nonsense those starved folk do.

I think there are two episodes left now: Next week and then the two-hour finale where they start really shedding players.

(May 11, 2017 at 3:35 pm)Cthulhu Dreaming Wrote: So that was a pretty slick move Sarah pulled there, getting Sierra to pass on her legacy advantage to her while knifing her in the back.  I don't think that's going to win her Sierra's vote, and might cost her other votes if she were to get to the final, but it was a bold move that worked at least in the short term.  I don't know that she fully thought out the consequences though.  Then again, in a season like this where the entire playerlist is made up of cutthroats, maybe not.  She'll have to make sure that whoever is sitting next to her at the end is pretty despicable, though - assuming she can make it, which I kind of doubt.

100% agree - she even kept the charade going past the vote by looking "shocked" that it was Sierra so Sierra would think, walking out, that Sarah had been duped, too.  More and more I think she's set up to be a finalist, and possibly a winner (unless Cirie is there).

Quote:I don't think Michaela is on the radar all that much any longer - I think she's really softened up her demeanor, and frankly, I think she's not bad for keeping around to take to the end because no one really likes her that much, except Tai.  She hasn't shown a knack for making big moves that I recall, and she's really only a threat as an underdog and as a threat to win immunity.  I don't think either of those factors wins her many votes at the end.

Perhaps that's a hidden Cirie strategy?  I think she's the only one who might actually consider taking Michaela.

Quote:Cirie is very much a threat to win the whole thing if everyone keeps passing her over for scrutiny.   You haven't seen her prior seasons, correct?   She is very, very good at the social game and it should be very apparent that she's no threat to win challenges (to me, one's ability to win challenges can get you farther, but it doesn't necessarily help you at the end - but the social game does).

As soon as Andrea's gone it'll crack the egg on Cirie, too.

Quote:If it comes down to your three of Aubrey/Cirie/Michaela, I think Cirie wins easily.

Aubry is a non-entity this season and Michaela is widely disliked.  They wouldn't even need to hold a vote, just give Cirie the check.

What would be more interesting is Sarah and Cirie at the final tribal - both excellent players, played different enough games to distinguish the two, and that would be a real choice. But barring some unforeseen catastrophe in game play I don't think that will happen.

Quote:Troyzan is an enigma this season to me.  He doesn't get much screen time, he's not making big moves, and as you say, he's on the wrong side of votes.  He could go deep but he's going to have to step things up if he wants to win.  Right now he has very little on his resume except that by virtue of being on the wrong side of the numbers, he hasn't really betrayed anyone of importance.  That strategy has worked before (Hi, Sandra!), but it doesn't work often.  There is, however, very little reason to vote him off.

Agree again.  Troyzan is a nothing player this time around, just a vote blowing in the wind.  I don't see how he makes a case to win.

Quote:I think Brad goes home as soon as he doesn't have immunity, simply by virtue of the fact that he's very good at challenges.  I don't think he has a better than average chance of winning.  However, having the benefit of a visit from his wife - who is a very good player - can only help him.

Absent a major change, I don't see Andrea going much farther.

Agree on both counts.

Quote:That latter point is important to consider what might happen with Tai.  Assuming he doesn't get voted off with both idols in his pocket, he will almost certainly make it to the final 5 (at which point hidden immunity idols typically become inert).  Can he win?  I don't know.  He's very likable, which works in his favor, but Survivor is not about finding hidden immunity idols, and doing so does not usually impress the jury.

If Tai makes it to the end again it'll be as a no-vote-goat.

Quote:I have a fair idea of what the final 6 looks like (everyone minus Brad and Andrea) but beyond that, no idea.

I think unless people get wise to Sarah, and I'm not sure they will because they all inexplicably want to work with her, she'll be in the final tribal.  If she makes it to final tribal she's a serious contender whose only real challenge  for the win would be Cirie.  Me thinks as soon as Andrea's gone Sarah and Cirie will turn on each other in a big way.

Regardless of their ability to make it to the end right now, I think the winner contenders are:
Andrea
Cirie
Sarah
Brad - a long shot, tho

If if any of --^-- them get to the end they have a case to make.

The goats right now are:
Aubry
Tai
Troyzan
Michaela - unless she goes fully Anakin on Cirie but that would still rank her lower than Brad in winning ability IMO

I can't find fault with any of that, CM.

The next episode should see the lines becoming even more clear.

I said I wanted Cirie to at least make it to final 7 and phew! I think she just managed to squeak her way through to 6!  I thought, before the vote, that I might have retroactively cursed Cirie to only make it to the final 7

This tribal was amazing.  First, and perhaps this is because my brain is officially mush by the time I’ve been getting home at night, I went into tribal with no clear picture of who was being voted for – Sarah? Tai? Aubry? What was the settled plan?  Was there a settled plan?

Second, the editors didn’t, to my memory, drop the hint earlier in the episode that the vote steal was non-transferable so when Sarah mentioned it at tribal it was like a bomb exploded all over Cirie, KA-BOOM! There are your great plans all blasted to smithereens before your very eyes.

The ironic thing was that she really was attempting to save Sarah with the vote steal since everyone was talking about turning on her but now Sarah probably thinks that she was trying to steal the vote to use for herself! GA!!!!

Third, it looks like Cirie's plan to console Tai so he doesn't play an idol might have worked - I would have thought after all the talk at tribal and how things blew up and how skittish Tai can be that if he had brought an idol to tribal he would have played it... but he didn't.... maybe Cirie's gambit worked and he didn't bring one?  In any case, this is bad news for Cirie's chances because Tai is still in, still has two idols, knows Cirie was lying to him, and now Sarah might be turning on her, too.

I really hope Cirie can patch things up with Sarah next week because this tribal was not a good look for Cirie.

I’m glad to see that the other players picked up on Sarah’s obvious pandering to Sierra and the jury when she was fake-shocked.  I hope that comes back to bite Sarah in the ass, even though I think she’s playing a pretty great game.  It was stupid to be so obvious about it.

I’m also glad that there was talk about what the criteria might be for voting on the winner this season – whether it’s pure gameplay and to what degree relationships and emotion factor in to the decision.  I tend to think that returning player seasons lean much more toward the best gameplayer which means if Sarah gets to the end she’ll win, even despite Cirie’s hopes that there will be a bitter jury toward her.  I’m not sure of how many people on the jury will feel betrayed enough by her to overlook that she’s playing a great game.

It looks like next week we’ll see Tai having an idol-revealing breakdown.  I got the impression he might have been giving Brad or Troyzan his idols, or maybe we’re setting up a Three Amigos situation like in Caramoan when Malcolm blew up tribal by having immunity and then giving his two idols to Eddie and Reynold, only in this situation it would probably be Brad winning and Tai protecting Troyzan - which means Troyzan would be the no-vote-goat.

I’m not really understanding the Michaela vote as I didn’t watch the vote-reveal at the end.  My only suspicion is that Cirie held to her Tai vote, so at least she can go back to Sarah with that to her name.  But I think her days are numbered.

My only hope for the rest of the season now is that only one of the threesome of Brad, Tai and Troyzan makes it to the finals, otherwise it will be an incredibly boring final tribal to what has been a really great season.

(May 18, 2017 at 12:46 pm)Clueless Morgan Wrote: My only hope for the rest of the season now is that only one of the threesome of Brad, Tai and Troyzan makes it to the finals, otherwise it will be an incredibly boring final tribal to what has been a really great season.

^^^

Well...

First things first... eye candy is out of the game, predictably. Now, we get eye candy on the bench... works the same!

Brad won the challenge... sorry you didn't vote him out, instead of miss eye candy (whatshername?), huh?
Speaking of challenges, am I the only one to see that, for some of those, they actually clear-cut a patch of forest to build their games? Not cool!

Cirie in the challenge with the bucket! HAHA! awesome! had to be the one to have that thing roll around the pole, too... FFS!
Not being a challenge threat is probably letting her slide, as they vote out those who can win... I think that's why Michaela went home, this time. If not for that, they had all interest in keeping her around.

Officer Sarah was sneaky as hell, after that showmanship for Cierra that others didn't like so much, and she has now outed Cirie's sneakiness... or has she? Cirie may still get to the end... Will the jury reward gameplay, social skills, 50/50, 20/80, or what?!
6 are left, 3 to go in one hour of show...
Tai has two idols and seems to be giving at least one away?! you fool!
Troy is sliding through, too...
And Aubrey - nice going with that challenge win! - mostly coasting along...
With all the butthurt, Brad, Sarah and Tai are the most likely to be cast off... but let's look at how the challenges go, first!

Also, did you guys see that preview with the huge maze?! Can I play there, too??

(May 18, 2017 at 5:42 pm)pocaracas Wrote: Well...

First things first... eye candy is out of the game, predictably. Now, we get eye candy on the bench... works the same!

Michaela was your eye candy? I thought that was Hali? (Or Andrea?)

Quote:Speaking of challenges, am I the only one to see that, for some of those, they actually clear-cut a patch of forest to build their games? Not cool!

They film in the same areas over and over again.  I once heard that one season's tribe camp was set up in the previous season's... er... bathroom area...

Quote:Cirie in the challenge with the bucket! HAHA! awesome! had to be the one to have that thing roll around the pole, too... FFS!
Not being a challenge threat is probably letting her slide, as they vote out those who can win... I think that's why Michaela went home, this time. If not for that, they had all interest in keeping her around.

Michaela was also Cirie's lieutenant so Cirie was doubly hurt by her misplay last week: was shown up by Sarah (rumors are Cirie wasn't given the advantage until moments before they left for tribal, hence she couldn't have read the fine print) AND she lost her apparent Number Two.



(Apparently it's difficult to find a GIF of Number Two from Austin Powers.... who knew?)

Quote:Officer Sarah was sneaky as hell, after that showmanship for Cierra that others didn't like so much, and she has now outed Cirie's sneakiness... or has she? Cirie may still get to the end... Will the jury reward gameplay, social skills, 50/50, 20/80, or what?!

That entirely depends on the mood of the jury; Watch Survivor Samoa and Survivor: Tocantins as examples. (Plus, Tocantins is my favvy Stephen's first season....)

Quote:6 are left, 3 to go in one hour of show...

Two hours, plus the reunion.

It must be a testament to how brain-fried I am that I'm posting here and not doing any of the 1,001 things I have to do today...

Okay fine, I'll go work.

(May 23, 2017 at 10:15 am)Clueless Morgan Wrote:

(May 18, 2017 at 5:42 pm)pocaracas Wrote: Well...

First things first... eye candy is out of the game, predictably. Now, we get eye candy on the bench... works the same!

Michaela was your eye candy? I thought that was Hali? (Or Andrea?)

Yeah.... that was concerning Andrea... sothat'shername!
You ARE fried... what have you been doing?!


Although, to be fair, Michaela isn't so bad on the eyes, either.
And it was CL who considered Hali as hot, IIRC.

(May 23, 2017 at 10:15 am)Clueless Morgan Wrote:

Quote:Speaking of challenges, am I the only one to see that, for some of those, they actually clear-cut a patch of forest to build their games? Not cool!

They film in the same areas over and over again.  I once heard that one season's tribe camp was set up in the previous season's... er... bathroom area...

Oh.... so they reuse the clear-cut patches... that changes it... yeah, definitely!

(May 23, 2017 at 10:15 am)Clueless Morgan Wrote:

Quote:Cirie in the challenge with the bucket! HAHA! awesome! had to be the one to have that thing roll around the pole, too... FFS!
Not being a challenge threat is probably letting her slide, as they vote out those who can win... I think that's why Michaela went home, this time. If not for that, they had all interest in keeping her around.

Michaela was also Cirie's lieutenant so Cirie was doubly hurt by her misplay last week: was shown up by Sarah (rumors are Cirie wasn't given the advantage until moments before they left for tribal, hence she couldn't have read the fine print) AND she lost her apparent Number Two.

Rumors?
Editing is surely winning the "Game Changer" award.

(May 23, 2017 at 10:15 am)Clueless Morgan Wrote:

Quote:Officer Sarah was sneaky as hell, after that showmanship for Cierra that others didn't like so much, and she has now outed Cirie's sneakiness... or has she? Cirie may still get to the end... Will the jury reward gameplay, social skills, 50/50, 20/80, or what?!

That entirely depends on the mood of the jury; Watch Survivor Samoa and Survivor: Tocantins as examples. (Plus, Tocantins is my favvy Stephen's first season....)

Oh!


...



...

oh... that's not for me... okay...

(May 23, 2017 at 10:15 am)Clueless Morgan Wrote:

Quote:6 are left, 3 to go in one hour of show...

Two hours, plus the reunion.

An episode of 3 straight hours?!
I didn't remember that from the previous 2 seasons... Still don't!

(May 23, 2017 at 10:15 am)Clueless Morgan Wrote: It must be a testament to how brain-fried I am that I'm posting here and not doing any of the 1,001 things I have to do today...

Okay fine, I'll go work.

Never underestimate the unfrying capabilities of a moment of relaxation.
That and music... I just can't keep focused without good music keeping my ears busy. I know some people are the opposite... go figure!

As far as what the jury rewards, who knows? The only constant seems to be that it if your social game is awful, you aren't likely to win. Everything else seems to be a crapshoot.

Anyone know how things stand with immunity idols? I think Sarah has one she can only use now at six players. Tai has -what- a boat load of them? Is there a limit to how far in the game he can use them?