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RE: Russia and Ukraine
September 21, 2022 at 10:21 am
Russians Take to the Street to Protest Putin: 'No Mobilization'
Protests have broken out in parts of Russia following President Vladimir Putin's announcement that he was calling up reservists in an escalation of the war in Ukraine, according to reports.
According to Latvian news website Meduza, authorities have begun to confront protests that have erupted in Russian cities.
Dozens of people have taken to the streets with protest signs in Irkutsk in Siberia and Ulan-Ude in Russia's Far East. There are also reports of demonstrations in Khabarovsk and Yakutsk.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-vladimir...te-1744938
teachings of the Bible are so muddled and self-contradictory that it was possible for Christians to happily burn heretics alive for five long centuries. It was even possible for the most venerated patriarchs of the Church, like St. Augustine and St. Thomas Aquinas, to conclude that heretics should be tortured (Augustine) or killed outright (Aquinas). Martin Luther and John Calvin advocated the wholesale murder of heretics, apostates, Jews, and witches. - Sam Harris, "Letter To A Christian Nation"
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
September 21, 2022 at 10:27 am
Cue Country Joe McDonald.
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
September 21, 2022 at 8:04 pm
And -- who's going to retrain those reservists? The same guys who trained the first wave? Where are those guys right now?
I don't believe this represents any increase in Russian combat power. I believe this represents the Russians threatening a longer war in the hopes of wearing out Western support. But I think it will fail because without redirecting their doctrine and training they will simply be sending more troops into the shooting gallery -- even as the West is sending more arty, and training Ukrainians to fly F-16s, and now pondering the supply of older Abrams tanks.
In short, it's a move borne out of both fear and optics. It's also a big gamble in that the protests will widen and Putin's popularity will wane further. In essence, I think Putin is staking his regime on this war with this move. I think it's throwing good money after bad. He's scared and feeling cornered.
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
September 21, 2022 at 8:51 pm
(September 21, 2022 at 8:04 pm)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: And -- who's going to retrain those reservists? The same guys who trained the first wave? Where are those guys right now?
I don't believe this represents any increase in Russian combat power. I believe this represents the Russians threatening a longer war in the hopes of wearing out Western support. But I think it will fail because without redirecting their doctrine and training they will simply be sending more troops into the shooting gallery -- even as the West is sending more arty, and training Ukrainians to fly F-16s, and now pondering the supply of older Abrams tanks.
In short, it's a move borne out of both fear and optics. It's also a big gamble in that the protests will widen and Putin's popularity will wane further. In essence, I think Putin is staking his regime on this war with this move. I think it's throwing good money after bad. He's scared and feeling cornered.
My guess is that Putin wants a long war. The Russians are not dumb, as they have had their share of Nobel winners and chess grandmasters; fact is that the Russian army sucks, and Putin & Friends know this. Fighting against Ukraine with its modern Western weapons is allowing Russia to develop and enhance their weaponry. In addition, Putin wants Trump back in power, and having an extended war will make the World economy sag and Biden look bad.
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
September 22, 2022 at 6:47 am
Russians are protesting and escaping to Serbia.
teachings of the Bible are so muddled and self-contradictory that it was possible for Christians to happily burn heretics alive for five long centuries. It was even possible for the most venerated patriarchs of the Church, like St. Augustine and St. Thomas Aquinas, to conclude that heretics should be tortured (Augustine) or killed outright (Aquinas). Martin Luther and John Calvin advocated the wholesale murder of heretics, apostates, Jews, and witches. - Sam Harris, "Letter To A Christian Nation"
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
September 22, 2022 at 7:08 am
(September 21, 2022 at 8:04 pm)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: And -- who's going to retrain those reservists? The same guys who trained the first wave? Where are those guys right now?
I don't believe this represents any increase in Russian combat power. I believe this represents the Russians threatening a longer war in the hopes of wearing out Western support. But I think it will fail because without redirecting their doctrine and training they will simply be sending more troops into the shooting gallery -- even as the West is sending more arty, and training Ukrainians to fly F-16s, and now pondering the supply of older Abrams tanks.
In short, it's a move borne out of both fear and optics. It's also a big gamble in that the protests will widen and Putin's popularity will wane further. In essence, I think Putin is staking his regime on this war with this move. I think it's throwing good money after bad. He's scared and feeling cornered.
You can call up a million reservists, but it doesn’t help much when you can’t train or supply them.
Boru
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
September 22, 2022 at 10:15 am
(This post was last modified: September 22, 2022 at 10:21 am by The Grand Nudger.)
(September 21, 2022 at 8:51 pm)Jehanne Wrote: allowing Russia to develop and enhance their weaponry.
If by developing and enhancing their weaponry we mean buying iranian knockoffs of us drones, so that they don't have to use macguyvered garbage they'd been "developing" in house - then sure. The war in ukraine has been going swimmingly. It's not as if it's exposed their military programs as hollowed out economic fiefdoms for midlevel officials while simultaneously costing them piles and piles of captured equipment. Besides, very few russians have died. A handful here, a handful there, mostly from smoking accidents.
Putin doesn't want a long war. He wanted a three day war. He's two hundred days into his three day war now..and for some reason, people continue to believe that he's a master strategist playing multi dimensional chess. I think he's a dictator that fucked up. They do that.
I am the Infantry. I am my country’s strength in war, her deterrent in peace. I am the heart of the fight… wherever, whenever. I carry America’s faith and honor against her enemies. I am the Queen of Battle. I am what my country expects me to be, the best trained Soldier in the world. In the race for victory, I am swift, determined, and courageous, armed with a fierce will to win. Never will I fail my country’s trust. Always I fight on…through the foe, to the objective, to triumph overall. If necessary, I will fight to my death. By my steadfast courage, I have won more than 200 years of freedom. I yield not to weakness, to hunger, to cowardice, to fatigue, to superior odds, For I am mentally tough, physically strong, and morally straight. I forsake not, my country, my mission, my comrades, my sacred duty. I am relentless. I am always there, now and forever. I AM THE INFANTRY! FOLLOW ME!
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
September 22, 2022 at 11:48 am
(This post was last modified: September 22, 2022 at 11:52 am by Thumpalumpacus.)
(September 21, 2022 at 8:51 pm)Jehanne Wrote: (September 21, 2022 at 8:04 pm)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: And -- who's going to retrain those reservists? The same guys who trained the first wave? Where are those guys right now?
I don't believe this represents any increase in Russian combat power. I believe this represents the Russians threatening a longer war in the hopes of wearing out Western support. But I think it will fail because without redirecting their doctrine and training they will simply be sending more troops into the shooting gallery -- even as the West is sending more arty, and training Ukrainians to fly F-16s, and now pondering the supply of older Abrams tanks.
In short, it's a move borne out of both fear and optics. It's also a big gamble in that the protests will widen and Putin's popularity will wane further. In essence, I think Putin is staking his regime on this war with this move. I think it's throwing good money after bad. He's scared and feeling cornered.
My guess is that Putin wants a long war. The Russians are not dumb, as they have had their share of Nobel winners and chess grandmasters; fact is that the Russian army sucks, and Putin & Friends know this. Fighting against Ukraine with its modern Western weapons is allowing Russia to develop and enhance their weaponry. In addition, Putin wants Trump back in power, and having an extended war will make the World economy sag and Biden look bad.
[Bolding added -- Thump]
While I agree with most of what you write, I'd take issue with this point. Uralvagonzavod has largely ceased production, devoting what resources they have to repairing the many battle-damaged tanks. As of July, they had laid off approximately half of their workforce. The Russians have lost two major warships and six or seven cargo vessels or small patrol boats. They've burnt through most of their stockplie of PGMs.
And with sanctions in place they will not be able to replace these losses any time soon, I don't think. Remember, they've now got 300,000 more soldiers to feed, clothe, and equip.
Beyond that, the Russians have always had decent R&D for their gear, so I'm not sure how much this war will advance their weapons-development.
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
September 22, 2022 at 11:51 am
(September 22, 2022 at 10:15 am)The Grand Nudger Wrote: Putin doesn't want a long war. He wanted a three day war. He's two hundred days into his three day war now..
He may have wanted a week-long blitz at first, but I think now he understands that his only hope (and it's a thin reed indeed) is a war lasting long enough to tire out the Western nations supporting Ukraine. He's hoping to do that by pitchforking a few hundred thousand poor lads into the fire.
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RE: Russia and Ukraine
September 22, 2022 at 12:55 pm
(September 22, 2022 at 11:48 am)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: Beyond that, the Russians have always had decent R&D for their gear, so I'm not sure how much this war will advance their weapons-development.
Their weapons suck, as does their military. Unless they are just going to surrender outright, what's the alternative to retooling?
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