(July 12, 2023 at 5:04 pm)The Grand Nudger Wrote: Ukraine isn’t in the North Atlantic either. Not being part of the North Atlantic isn’t a reason for anyone to be ignored. Not Oz, not Ukraine…and not turkey.

Turkeys main fuckup was believing Russian ad copy about Russian weapons. Whole lot of buyers remorse in the world right now. Poor China, they stole a bunch of Russian tech to invade Taiwan with…..gonna have to put that off for a bit.

No, but Ukraine does border member states of NATO.

Japan, Oz, NZ all have several oceans bewtween us and the closest NATO nation.

(July 12, 2023 at 4:42 pm)Nishant Xavier Wrote: So let's discuss the Vilnius Nato Summit. Not as good as it could have been imo, but at least they removed the MAP requirement, which reduces one step for Ukraine. Ukraines future is in NATO, of that there should be no doubt. If Finland and Sweden can join, why can't Ukraine? Of course, the War has to finish first, but immediately after, Ukraine should accede to the Alliance.

Thoughts from folks here? And my expectations/guesses:

(1) Sweden becomes Nato member 32 by this year 2023 end.

(2) there's a good chance the Ukraine War ends by 2024 end at least, given Russias already lost some 230,000 troops at last count, and thus in another 1.5 years or so would be expected to lose around 500,000 in total; way, way more than they lost in Afghanistan in 10 years, and arguably unsustainable. So I expect the war will end by 2024 with Ukraine joining Nato by year end (3) then Nato should expand Eastward, I.e. in Asia, welcoming Asian Countries like Japan, South Korea, and India, and Oceanic like Australia and New Zealand in time. There are signs of this happening already, but Leftist Liberal and Commie-appeaser Macron is stopping it to please the CCP: Natos planned new office in Japan for e.g. Anyway, Raeganite Peace through Strength works and can stop the War and the CCP also.

Thoughts?

From Al Jazeera: "The communique also touched on the Asia Pacific, with the leaders of Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea all attending as NATO allies.

It said China was a challenge to NATO’s interests, security and values with its “ambitions and coercive policies” triggering a furious response from Beijing.

And it accused Beijing and Moscow of “mutually reinforcing attempts to undercut the rules-based international order”. China has said it wants peace in Ukraine, but has not condemned Russia’s full scale invasion since it began in February 2022."

i think Ukraine will win this war, and once it's over will be welcomed into NATO. I don't think NATO has any business driving eastward into the Asian landmass.

I do think we Americans should be solid allies to the Japanese, SoKor, and Taiwanese, as well as other Asian nations. I think NATO's purview should remain and be restricted to Europe, simply because the wider the net that is cast the more likely is it that dissension would hamstring any response by the alliance.

For dealing with issues in Asia, I like the idea of AUKUS, though I think we should aim to bring India, Japan, and the Philippines into that umbrella. But let's face it, most NATO nations simply cannot project power into East Asia in any meaningful level.

(July 12, 2023 at 4:58 pm)The Valkyrie Wrote: Sweden, Finland, and Ukraine need to be accepted ASAP to show Russia a united front in light of their aggression and war crimes in Ukraine/Crimea.

Finland was accepted in April, and Sweden's accession was greenlighted the other day after negotiation. Ukraine can't join until this war is over due to NATO's charter forbidding a new member being accepted while at war.

(July 12, 2023 at 4:58 pm)The Valkyrie Wrote: At the same time they need to look at censuring Turkey, possibly with the goal of removing them from the Alliance.

There's no censure or expulsion clause in the NATO charter. I'd loe to see Turkey told off, but there's no means by which to actually do that.

(July 12, 2023 at 4:58 pm)The Valkyrie Wrote: NATO is North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and, as such, all other mentioned nations are outside their primary area of interest.

We have our own alliances which, while needing strengthening, will suffice.

Precisely. 30 of NATO's 32 countries are in Europe (at least in part). That is where their focus belongs, and where they may do the greatest good.

(July 12, 2023 at 5:58 pm)Angrboda Wrote: If I were NATO then I'd put obstacles in the way of Ukraine joining.  A NATO country on the border of Russia is a flashpoint and Putin can't keep it in his pants.

If that was the real issue, Russia would've invaded the Baltic states and the war's over in five days. They're NATO members, after all.

Of course, they don't have the coal, rare metals, uranium, and prestige as Target Ukraine.

I think NATO should greet Ukraine once they win this war. Russia cannot beat Ukraine alone, as we're seeing here. They're sure not gonna get punchy once Ukraine has Article 5 in its pocket.

(July 12, 2023 at 11:46 pm)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:

(July 12, 2023 at 5:58 pm)Angrboda Wrote: If I were NATO then I'd put obstacles in the way of Ukraine joining.  A NATO country on the border of Russia is a flashpoint and Putin can't keep it in his pants.

If that was the real issue, Russia would've invaded the Baltic states and the war's over in five days. They're NATO members, after all.

Of course, they don't have the coal, rare metals, uranium, and prestige as Target Ukraine.

I think NATO should greet Ukraine once they win this war. Russia cannot beat Ukraine alone, as we're seeing here. They're sure not gonna get punchy once Ukraine has Article 5 in its pocket.

With the pending ascension of Sweden, Russia is now the only non-NATO country with a border on the Baltic Sea. While this probably doesn't affect things in any material way, I think it's going to have a huge impact on the Russian psyche.

Boru

(July 12, 2023 at 5:58 pm)Angrboda Wrote: If I were NATO then I'd put obstacles in the way of Ukraine joining.  A NATO country on the border of Russia is a flashpoint and Putin can't keep it in his pants.

Finland 
3 baltic states

Nothing will happen if ANOTHER NATO member has a border with Russia. Its all posturing.
He knows his days of creating a "greater Russia" are counted once the last remaining potential target (Ukraine) is removed from his bucket list. He knows exactly that what he will get (or not) from Ukraine is the last land grab, and last installment of puppet regimes he will ever have.
Regimes like the current one in Russia exist for one reason only: fear

(July 12, 2023 at 11:46 pm)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:

(July 12, 2023 at 5:58 pm)Angrboda Wrote: If I were NATO then I'd put obstacles in the way of Ukraine joining.  A NATO country on the border of Russia is a flashpoint and Putin can't keep it in his pants.

If that was the real issue, Russia would've invaded the Baltic states and the war's over in five days. They're NATO members, after all.

Of course, they don't have the coal, rare metals, uranium, and prestige as Target Ukraine.

I think NATO should greet Ukraine once they win this war. Russia cannot beat Ukraine alone, as we're seeing here. They're sure not gonna get punchy once Ukraine has Article 5 in its pocket.

All it would take is one miscalculation and the world is at war. Putin's little green men was supposed to be covert back in 2014. You don't think he'd do it again?

(July 13, 2023 at 7:19 am)Angrboda Wrote:

(July 12, 2023 at 11:46 pm)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: If that was the real issue, Russia would've invaded the Baltic states and the war's over in five days. They're NATO members, after all.

Of course, they don't have the coal, rare metals, uranium, and prestige as Target Ukraine.

I think NATO should greet Ukraine once they win this war. Russia cannot beat Ukraine alone, as we're seeing here. They're sure not gonna get punchy once Ukraine has Article 5 in its pocket.

All it would take is one miscalculation and the world is at war.  Putin's little green men was supposed to be covert back in 2014.  You don't think he'd do it again?

After this debacle in Ukraine, no, I don’t think Putin would try again. He never imagined the West would support Ukraine to the extent it has, and he knows Russia hasn’t got a hope in hell of defeating NATO.

Boru

(July 13, 2023 at 7:19 am)Angrboda Wrote: All it would take is one miscalculation and the world is at war.  Putin's little green men was supposed to be covert back in 2014.  You don't think he'd do it again?

Not when the target nation could invoke Article 5, no, I don't think so.