Universal basic income in the future

[Aegon]

So I've been spending a ton of time researching what the future will be like. It's fascinating as fuck. I noticed there was a topic made about UBI less than 30 days ago, but I don't think there was enough discussion about technology and A.I., so I want to focus on that.

I think that western countries, US included, should be experimenting with the implementation of a universal basic income within the next 10 to 15 years because within 50 years we're going to see an unemployment rate so high it's going to fundamentally transform our economics and society as a whole. A.I. is advancing at such a rate that entire sectors will be gone and very few jobs, including white collar jobs, will be secure.



It's easy to call the unemployed lazy and entitled now, but how will people live when they won't be qualified for ANY of the jobs that exist? An undergraduate degree will certainly be a necessity by 2050. The hard labor jobs that keep a large portion of this country employed will be fully automated. When unemployment hits 30, 40 percent, the government is obligated to do something. Otherwise it will only get worse.

I don't know exactly how much a guaranteed income for all would be, but I know UBI has been experimented with around the world (usually with sample sizes below 10,000) and have been successful. But we should figure it out sooner rather than later.

This seems like a far left, radical idea even for the most economically liberal (progressive) countries let alone the US. But I think if we implemented a guaranteed income while eliminating several other entitlement programs, I think it could get bipartisan support. Either way I think it's inevitable. We just need to get the ball rolling BEFORE A.I. causes a global crisis.

[Neo-Scholastic]

So I've been spending a ton of time researching what the future will be like. It's fascinating as fuck.

I strongly suggest reading "Debt: the First 5000 Years". If we as a society are to make good decisions about the future we need to understand the past. I started to see the economic world completely differently after reading it.

I think that western countries, US included, should be experimenting with the implementation of a universal basic income within the next 10 to 15 years because within 50 years we're going to see an unemployment rate so high it's going to fundamentally transform our economics and society as a whole.

Personally, I cannot imagine 50 years into the future, and I don't think anyone can project that far. Look back over all the predictions made in just the last 50 years - the only projection that has held is the doubling of computer processing power. Other than that we seem to have averted nuclear holocaust, the world wide famine from population bomb, an ice age, the complete depletion of fossil fuels...and that's just a start. My guess is that the world will be just as shitty as it's always been, just in different ways, and just as beautiful as it has always been for the same reasons it's always been.

It's easy to call the unemployed lazy and entitled now, but how will people live when they won't be qualified for ANY of the jobs that exist?

Point taken. There are more than one category of poor: those incapable of doing work, those who could but lack opportunity, and the able who choose not to. But the larger question is why we judge people in terms of their ability and willingness to work, i.e the Protestant work ethic. What qualifies as a contribution to society and from where do we get a moral imperative to do so?

I know UBI has been experimented with around the world (usually with sample sizes below 10,000) and have been successful.

Not familiar with any of those experiments. I would be curious to know what is being used as the success criteria.

if we implemented a guaranteed income while eliminating several other entitlement programs, I think it could get bipartisan support.

The purpose of entitlement programs extends beyond taking care of the unfortunate. They are also used to benefit powerful interest groups. Every benefit received by the poor involves purchasing it from some provider. There is a reason food stamps is run by the Dept of Agriculture. All the public housing gets built by union construction companies with political clout. Entitlement programs are also designed to "encourage" people to act in government approved ways and direct consumer behavior. Just giving people money won't do any of that and states that have those powers to direct resources towards their benefactors will not easily relinquish that kind of power.

[Silver]

The way Republicans think, they would rather let the poor starve and die on the streets than fix anything that would mean less money in their pockets.

[Mister Agenda]

At time goes on, it will also be cheaper to implement BMI: Automation costs jobs, but it also makes things cheaper. Basics like food, clothing, and shelter; as well as non-basics such as electronic entertainment; are headed towards becoming almost dirt-cheap. In that kind of post-scarcity, it would require far less of the national budget as a percentage to ensure that people have enough to eat and clothes to wear.

There will be a tipping point where recognition that providing a lot of people with basic needs is cheap compared to not doing so.

[mlmooney89]

I KNOW my job is going to become automated. I am the teller supervisor and tellers in general are just as much at risk as the new accounts people. In the four and a half years I've worked at a bank our transactions and foot traffic are down drastically. People can do so much online without even talking to another human. I get paid way more than I deserve and I have no education past high school. This is all going to come to a horrible crash and burn ending. Good thing my husband will be able to pay the bills cause here soon I will be worthless.

[NuclearEnergy]

Very interesting. However, it would be just another thing to pay for. But I imagine if we sliced our military even by 30% we would still have plenty and also money to pay for several other programs.

[Jenny A]

So I've been spending a ton of time researching what the future will be like. It's fascinating as fuck. I noticed there was a topic made about UBI less than 30 days ago, but I don't think there was enough discussion about technology and A.I., so I want to focus on that.

I think that western countries, US included, should be experimenting with the implementation of a universal basic income within the next 10 to 15 years because within 50 years we're going to see an unemployment rate so high it's going to fundamentally transform our economics and society as a whole. A.I. is advancing at such a rate that entire sectors will be gone and very few jobs, including white collar jobs, will be secure.



It's easy to call the unemployed lazy and entitled now, but how will people live when they won't be qualified for ANY of the jobs that exist? An undergraduate degree will certainly be a necessity by 2050. The hard labor jobs that keep a large portion of this country employed will be fully automated. When unemployment hits 30, 40 percent, the government is obligated to do something. Otherwise it will only get worse.

I don't know exactly how much a guaranteed income for all would be, but I know UBI has been experimented with around the world (usually with sample sizes below 10,000) and have been successful. But we should figure it out sooner rather than later.

This seems like a far left, radical idea even for the most economically liberal (progressive) countries let alone the US. But I think if we implemented a guaranteed income while eliminating several other entitlement programs, I think it could get bipartisan support. Either way I think it's inevitable. We just need to get the ball rolling BEFORE A.I. causes a global crisis.

I think you don't understand either economics or how little we know of the future. If you had explained to someone a hundred years ago that less than 4% of the population would be engaged in agricultural they would have predicted 90% unemployment. Yet here we are living massively better with all kinds of goods and entertainment unimaginable 100 years ago. That is because of two misunderstandings, first economics is not a zero sum game and second we are horrible at predicting the future. I don't know what will replace jobs taken by robots, but I'm optimistic that there will be jobs creating whatever robots cannot, largely things we haven't even imagined yet. The only thing that might stop it is universal income.

You see people invent out of necessity. Take away the necessity and we might end progress.

[Mister Agenda]

The 'new wave' of automation is different from previous developments, which has people who really do understand economics thinking that this time might be different. Previous industrial revolutions still required a lot of simple labor since it has been very hard to replace bipeds with opposable thumbs who can learn a variety of tasks quickly...most 'simple' labor is very complex to a robot.

I feel that there will be lots of new jobs in the future but how many of them will really be necessary to keep people in the basic necessities? How many social media ranking consultants do we really need? Is there any job that absolutely can't be done by an advanced-enough robot?

[The Grand Nudger]

I thought that the list of least at-risk jobs was pretty high fallutin, myself.    No one is even remotely close to replacing cheap and almost unfathomably skilled (to a robot) human labor - and the vast majority of farm automation systems are, themselves..at -current- risk. 

For all we know, in 100 years, the majority of the population will be re-employed in their tradition occupation...ag...and all the rest will seem like a blip. Somebodies gotta feed all those people.

[Jackalope]

No one is even remotely close to replacing cheap and almost unfathomably skilled (to a robot) human labor

Disclaimer: The work I do is in automation.

I dunno about that - it's at least not universally true. I share the view that a lot of manual labor is not so easily automated, but if the job you do is able to be done by an expert system - it will be. (That's not to say UBI is needed or not, at least not for that reason, I'm woefully unqualified to make that assessment.)