Russia and Ukraine

[Thumpalumpacus]

Finland is now leaving no choice to the Russians but to invade them as well, at least according to the Russian propagandist Keosayan

The Russians had a hard slog there in 1939-40 without a second front in Ukraine. I doubt the Finns are too concerned. That's not even counting the fact that Finland is in NATO now. Talk is cheap when you're an overweight newscaster who won't be drafted.

To be fair, I wouldn't mind them inviting us in, 'cause shit would end mos' rickey-tick.

[Fireball]

Finland is now leaving no choice to the Russians but to invade them as well, at least according to the Russian propagandist Keosayan
[video deleted]

 We know how well that worked during WW2.  Häyhä did them a real number, with 542 kills, one string of 138 in 22 days. I'd say that they would have learned their lesson, but here we have Ukraine, tearing them a new one.

[Leonardo17]

E.U. Chief Mr. Charles Michel is making a surprise visit to Kiev. November 23rd 2013 is the day of the beginning of the Maidan Protests in Ukraine.
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan
 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/eu-officials-...03505.html
 
Some of the Trumpist Republicans (including Donald Trump himself) seem to grow weary of the war accusing President Biden of “Bringing the US on the Brink of WWIII”. I don’t think these are very realistic assessments. The “Maidan Revolution” events show us that Putin has first tried to subdue the country by making it a puppet state from the inside. Than it just claims some of its regions as its own. Than it tries to take the whole nation as a whole.
 
So there is a problem of ideology here. And I think everyone has to see this.

[Leonardo17]

   Ukrainians are slowly crossing the Dnipro River at Kherson Oblast. If I’m getting it right, they could start using Abrams and Leo tanks from this point as soon as the snow begins and the ground starts to become icy.
 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-now-f...00849.html

[The Grand Nudger]

The Kherson thing is a textbook riverine operation that was amusingly helped along by russia flooding the banks when they bolted. I wouldn't expect them to move far from the banks for some time....but then again....ukranians, they do unexpected shit as a rule.

Southern ukraines climate is not at all like the north or east. An abrams is lighter on the ground than a human foot, mull that over. They could use abrams anytime there all year round -but they won't. Ukranian command is not comfortable with the losses that western style and geared offensives would incur in their particular battlespace. Basically, they can't cross the river with tanks because they're afraid of the Gators. They've been really pressuring airfields near the contact line. Something as simple as a hut with a grass airfield can warrant a visit from HIMARS. They've also been building up a fleet of technicals and jury rigged utility vehicles for close range AA. A similar dynamic has appeared with the use of US IFVs and MRAPs. They're worth more (to ukraine) as extraction vehicles and ambulances than they would be supporting abrams in a general push. The Leos are also light footed (less so than abrams iirc) - and they've been working up in Avdiivka with bradleys.

The probing attacks and light infantry tactics are going to continue until one side or the other creates or effects a concrete advantage over the other in any of a number of critical tasks. In the near term, don't be surprised to see ukraine retaliate for last winter with their homegrown long range weapons, partisans, and sf (and, ofc, the deniable use of weapons provided to them). The chances of the power going out in moscow are decidedly non-zero.

[The Grand Nudger]

-and for the casuals, you can safely ignore ukraine war news until you hear the word "Maiachka". If shit pops off there, either the russian fed is about to fall, or.....if we believe the tankies..... ww3 will have already started.

[ShinyCrystals]

-and for the casuals, you can safely ignore ukraine war news until you hear the word "Maiachka". If shit pops off there, either the russian fed is about to fall, or.....if we believe the tankies..... ww3 will have already started.

Wait, what do you mean by the Russian fed possibly falling?

[The Grand Nudger]

---

There's a long history of regimes falling as a consequence of a failed invasion, just in general. More specific to russia is that they've dumped too much money and too many lives into the crimean project, most of that not even in crimea, and there's no universe where ukraine doesn't keep grinding away until, like the black sea fleet, russia abandons it. The point of donetsk and luhansk was to keep ukraine out of NATO and the EU while drawing troops away from crimea, failed objectives...and the collaborators they used as an excuse to send little green men are all dead or thoroughly soured on russia - according to the russian soldiers in the occupied regions.

Losing any of these places, and they will lose them whether to ukraine or to independence, is already a problem for the fed, as they swear up and down that's russia forever (Like Kherson...) and they've been cannibalizing the rest of their country to make it so. That, in the process, they exposed themselves as a paper tiger has implications for the hyper centralized control scheme that putin has been running - and it's central asian partners have been grumbling and looking elsewhere the entire time. Who wants a security agreement with a nation that A- doesn't respect such agreements..and B can't uphold them? Particularly when they could partner with...say...china.

Speaking of which, let's take a look at the club. Loosely, china, belarus, nk and iran. Putin said there were no limits. China quickly and publicly corrected that misapprehension. They, ofc, are responsible for propping up russia in it's war. Helping to evade sanctions, as a petroleum buyer, as a middleman for nk. They're not doing any of that so that russia will win, though. It's a debt trap, and one that they've been running all over eastern russia. China wants russia to lose, and lose badly. The worse the better. The longer and more painfully drawn out the better. On chinese maps, parts of russia..are china. It fancies itself a near arctic nation and looks forward to the resource rush that global warming is setting up. Oh, and the water. All of that water. Some 20% of the global freshwater supply in just one lake in disputed territory. Belarus is tied at the hip to russia but even they're doing everything they can to not help putin. Always busy washing their hair or whatever. NK could make quality artillery shells and they certainly do - but they've been sending russia shells that are so out of spec they cant hit a barn, and that's assuming they didn't just blow up in the barrel, furthering along what the russians call an artillery genocide. Irans solid, for what that's worth. Providing russia with weapons that russia is intent on using any way -but- the destruction of ukranian war material. It's assumed that they're doing this for help with their nuclear projects. Any of the folks in the club could send troops...but they haven't. Even if they get around to doing it sometime in the future they'll have already fucked russia pretty hard in the delay.

Back at home, Putin panders to ultra nationalist loons. These helpful little werewolves won't accept a russian retreat or defeat. Putin (or his successor) will have to pay this bill no matter what happens. If they retreat to rebuild their country they'll be pissed. If they stay until ukraine beats them down, they'll be pissed. If russia wins something, anything, and the locals aren't exterminated and their property handed over to the nationalists...they'll be pissed. They're not dissimilar from our own loons here in the states (if it even makes sense to call them different groups.....). They want to tear down what they see as weakness in the russian state, internally. All of that is a play for an audience of just two. Moscow and St Pete. Putin is doing everything he can do to make the rest of the country shoulder the war burden. This suggests, like his mad flight out of harms way when Prigo came knocking, that putin does not feel secure. Grandpa in his bunker.

---

TLDR version.
Because they've created or were already in the same situations that so commonly lead there. Because putin fucked up. Because there is apparently no means of self correction in those fuckups. Because it's strongest partner has a vested interest in reducing them to a client state and they're already well on the way to taking eastern russia through economic investment and demographic replacement. Because their central asian partners are already publicly humiliating putin when he bothers to show up. Because donetsk and luhansk want russia out even if they don't want ukraine in. Because russia couldn't stop a column of mercs marching on moscow. Because moscow and st pete aren't onboard with using their own sons to prop up the regime. Because the domestic faction most invested and supportive of the current state of the russian state also wants to destroy the russian administrative state. Because they're a petrostate run by a criminal syndicate in a post peak world full of global police and global police wannabes.

[ShinyCrystals]

---

There's a long history of regimes falling as a consequence of a failed invasion, just in general.  More specific to russia is that they've dumped too much money and too many lives into the crimean project, most of that not even in crimea, and there's no universe where ukraine doesn't keep grinding away until, like the black sea fleet, russia abandons it.  The point of donetsk and luhansk was to keep ukraine out of NATO and the EU while drawing troops away from crimea, failed objectives...and the collaborators they used as an excuse to send little green men are all dead or thoroughly soured on russia - according to the russian soldiers in the occupied regions.  

Losing any of these places, and they will lose them whether to ukraine or to independence, is already a problem for the fed, as they swear up and down that's russia forever (Like Kherson...) and they've been cannibalizing the rest of their country to make it so.  That, in the process, they exposed themselves as a paper tiger has implications for the hyper centralized control scheme that putin has been running - and it's central asian partners have been grumbling and looking elsewhere the entire time.  Who wants a security agreement with a nation that A- doesn't respect such agreements..and B can't uphold them?  Particularly when they could partner with...say...china.

Speaking of which, let's take a look at the club.  Loosely, china, belarus, nk and iran.  Putin said there were no limits.  China quickly and publicly corrected that misapprehension.  They, ofc, are responsible for propping up russia in it's war.  Helping to evade sanctions, as a petroleum buyer, as a middleman for nk.  They're not doing any of that so that russia will win, though.  It's a debt trap, and one that they've been running all over eastern russia.  China wants russia to lose, and lose badly.  The worse the better.  The longer and more painfully drawn out the better.  On chinese maps, parts of russia..are china.  It fancies itself a near arctic nation and looks forward to the resource rush that global warming is setting up.  Oh, and the water.  All of that water.  Some 20% of the global freshwater supply in just one lake in disputed territory.  Belarus is tied at the hip to russia but even they're doing everything they can to not help putin.  Always busy washing their hair or whatever. NK could make quality artillery shells and they certainly do - but they've been sending russia shells that are so out of spec they cant hit a barn, and that's assuming they didn't just blow up in the barrel, furthering along what the russians call an artillery genocide.  Irans solid, for what that's worth.  Providing russia with weapons that russia is intent on using any way -but- the destruction of ukranian war material.  It's assumed that they're doing this for help with their nuclear projects.  Any of the folks in the club could send troops...but they haven't.  Even if they get around to doing it sometime in the future they'll have already fucked russia pretty hard in the delay.

Back at home, Putin panders to ultra nationalist loons.  These helpful little werewolves won't accept a russian retreat or defeat.  Putin (or his successor) will have to pay this bill no matter what happens.  If they retreat to rebuild their country they'll be pissed.  If they stay until ukraine beats them down, they'll be pissed.  If russia wins something, anything, and the locals aren't exterminated and their property handed over to the nationalists...they'll be pissed.  They're not dissimilar from our own loons here in the states (if it even makes sense to call them different groups.....).  They want to tear down what they see as weakness in the russian state, internally.  All of that is a play for an audience of just two.   Moscow and St Pete.  Putin is doing everything he can do to make the rest of the country shoulder the war burden.  This suggests, like his mad flight out of harms way when Prigo came knocking, that putin does not feel secure.  Grandpa in his bunker.  

---

TLDR version.
Because they've created or were already in the same situations that so commonly lead there.  Because putin fucked up.  Because there is apparently no means of self correction in those fuckups.  Because it's strongest partner has a vested interest in reducing them to a client state and they're already well on the way to taking eastern russia through economic investment and demographic replacement.  Because their central asian partners are already publicly humiliating putin when he bothers to show up.  Because donetsk and luhansk want russia out even if they don't want ukraine in.  Because russia couldn't stop a column of mercs marching on moscow.  Because moscow and st pete aren't onboard with using their own sons to prop up the regime.  Because the domestic faction most invested and supportive of the current state of the russian state also wants to destroy the russian administrative state.  Because they're a petrostate run by a criminal syndicate in a post peak world full of global police and global police wannabes.

I see.

By the way, speaking of Russia and Ukraine, (This is unrelated to what you said, The Grand Nudger, and this is not towards just you), I want to bring up that someone I am usually around said that this war started because Obama asked Ukraine to join NATO, saying it was Obama's fault. Can you believe that nonsense? I mean, it was Putin's fault for invading Ukraine in the first place. Putin started the war, not Obama. Obama had nothing to do with Putin's actions.

Plus, it doesn't help that the guy I am talking about who said that about Obama is a republican.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

---

There's a long history of regimes falling as a consequence of a failed invasion, just in general.  More specific to russia is that they've dumped too much money and too many lives into the crimean project, most of that not even in crimea, and there's no universe where ukraine doesn't keep grinding away until, like the black sea fleet, russia abandons it.  The point of donetsk and luhansk was to keep ukraine out of NATO and the EU while drawing troops away from crimea, failed objectives...and the collaborators they used as an excuse to send little green men are all dead or thoroughly soured on russia - according to the russian soldiers in the occupied regions.  

Losing any of these places, and they will lose them whether to ukraine or to independence, is already a problem for the fed, as they swear up and down that's russia forever (Like Kherson...) and they've been cannibalizing the rest of their country to make it so.  That, in the process, they exposed themselves as a paper tiger has implications for the hyper centralized control scheme that putin has been running - and it's central asian partners have been grumbling and looking elsewhere the entire time.  Who wants a security agreement with a nation that A- doesn't respect such agreements..and B can't uphold them?  Particularly when they could partner with...say...china.

Speaking of which, let's take a look at the club.  Loosely, china, belarus, nk and iran.  Putin said there were no limits.  China quickly and publicly corrected that misapprehension.  They, ofc, are responsible for propping up russia in it's war.  Helping to evade sanctions, as a petroleum buyer, as a middleman for nk.  They're not doing any of that so that russia will win, though.  It's a debt trap, and one that they've been running all over eastern russia.  China wants russia to lose, and lose badly.  The worse the better.  The longer and more painfully drawn out the better.  On chinese maps, parts of russia..are china.  It fancies itself a near arctic nation and looks forward to the resource rush that global warming is setting up.  Oh, and the water.  All of that water.  Some 20% of the global freshwater supply in just one lake in disputed territory.  Belarus is tied at the hip to russia but even they're doing everything they can to not help putin.  Always busy washing their hair or whatever. NK could make quality artillery shells and they certainly do - but they've been sending russia shells that are so out of spec they cant hit a barn, and that's assuming they didn't just blow up in the barrel, furthering along what the russians call an artillery genocide.  Irans solid, for what that's worth.  Providing russia with weapons that russia is intent on using any way -but- the destruction of ukranian war material.  It's assumed that they're doing this for help with their nuclear projects.  Any of the folks in the club could send troops...but they haven't.  Even if they get around to doing it sometime in the future they'll have already fucked russia pretty hard in the delay.

Back at home, Putin panders to ultra nationalist loons.  These helpful little werewolves won't accept a russian retreat or defeat.  Putin (or his successor) will have to pay this bill no matter what happens.  If they retreat to rebuild their country they'll be pissed.  If they stay until ukraine beats them down, they'll be pissed.  If russia wins something, anything, and the locals aren't exterminated and their property handed over to the nationalists...they'll be pissed.  They're not dissimilar from our own loons here in the states (if it even makes sense to call them different groups.....).  They want to tear down what they see as weakness in the russian state, internally.  All of that is a play for an audience of just two.   Moscow and St Pete.  Putin is doing everything he can do to make the rest of the country shoulder the war burden.  This suggests, like his mad flight out of harms way when Prigo came knocking, that putin does not feel secure.  Grandpa in his bunker.  

---

TLDR version.
Because they've created or were already in the same situations that so commonly lead there.  Because putin fucked up.  Because there is apparently no means of self correction in those fuckups.  Because it's strongest partner has a vested interest in reducing them to a client state and they're already well on the way to taking eastern russia through economic investment and demographic replacement.  Because their central asian partners are already publicly humiliating putin when he bothers to show up.  Because donetsk and luhansk want russia out even if they don't want ukraine in.  Because russia couldn't stop a column of mercs marching on moscow.  Because moscow and st pete aren't onboard with using their own sons to prop up the regime.  Because the domestic faction most invested and supportive of the current state of the russian state also wants to destroy the russian administrative state.  Because they're a petrostate run by a criminal syndicate in a post peak world full of global police and global police wannabes.

I see.

By the way, speaking of Russia and Ukraine, (This is unrelated to what you said, The Grand Nudger, and this is not towards just you), I want to bring up that someone I am usually around said that this war started because Obama asked Ukraine to join NATO, saying it was Obama's fault. Can you believe that nonsense? I mean, it was Putin's fault for invading Ukraine in the first place. Putin started the war, not Obama. Obama had nothing to do with Putin's actions.

Plus, it doesn't help that the guy I am talking about who said that about Obama is a republican.

It has ceased to astonish me how resistant people are to fact-checking, especially since the interwebz has made it so easy.

Ukraine first expressed an interest in joining NATO in 2002.

Boru