Russia and Ukraine

[Jackalope]

They busted out any T-34s yet?

[The Grand Nudger]

At least two34-85s confirmed, yeah. They've been relying on 54s for a bit now. Mostly as arty and in defense, both things they are particularly terrible at. It was believed by some that their large numbers would mean something. It has not.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Russia is reduced to using technicals, like a third-rate Somali warlord.

[Deesse23]

Regardless
As long as they can throw meat waves at Ukrainian positions and make constant progress, they will keep doing so. Its becoming a race of either Russia running out of meat or Ukraine running out of territory and military support. Availability of weapons does not seem to play a major role to Russia. Mobile teams with re-uploaded bikes etc. Seem to be quite effective as well, considering the threat drones pose to afvs.
Ukraine's supporters do not seem to take this war serious (enough) and I think we will be up for a ride awakening, since support within Ukraine is warning too.

My prediction: the status quo will be frozen, either which way. The only question remaining is: when? With each day Ukraine will lose more territory. While after the war Russia will be militarily weakened it will have fortified it's position as a leading entity against "the west" and will attract everyone like minded as an ally.

[The Grand Nudger]

Russia has been losing territory for years now, not gaining it - and they ran out of meat before the first north koreans arrived. The availability of weapons doesn't play a major role to russia because they a - don't have them..and b - don't expect much of their remaining troops. It's incompetence, grift, and dereliction - not a strategy or a strength. Case in point..ukraine.

Russia clearly cannot force it's war goals on kyiv militarily - they failed to do that at the height of their strength and of ukraines weakness. There aren't enough men or pieces of armor on earth to make it to kyiv by the numbers. Putin needs a third party to force his preferred outcome on ukraine. He had hoped china would do as much. He said their relationship had no limits. They immediately demonstrated that it did. That leaves the donald..but it's harder to get the us to do a thing then making friends with potus and donald doesn't need and can't use putin anymore. They made alot of noise about that too. Their trumpushka being a man who owed people things and would have to pay up. Like they'd never met him.

If ukraine surrendered today and agreed to putins maximalist demands russia would still be screwed. It's not a leading entity against anything and couldn't be for a generation or more. This assumes a massive improvement in the quality of leadership to dig their way back out, and that doesn't look like it's in the cards for them either.

[Deesse23]

I was referring to territory in the war against Ukraine. There is no doubt that the current war is a result of Russia losing control/influence on territory. I am also including meat of any entity willing to lend it to Russia.

The availability of weapons doesn't play a major role to russia because they a - don't have them..and b - don't expect much of their remaining troops.

Isnt that pretty much my point? I wouldnt say Rusisa has no weapons, but its stocks are quickly runnig dry, while the economy clearly cant feed the needs of this war. I think predicions are that Russia will have serious issues with equipmentin 2-5 years, depending on whom you trust.

Russia clearly cannot force it's war goals on kyiv militarily

I think i already agreed on that as a precondition of why the status quo will be frozen (i avioded words like "armistice" and such, since this is already a specific way of HOW the status quo can be frozen).

It's not a leading entity against anything and couldn't be for a generation or more.

This is the only point we seem to disagree. Its conventional army may be seriously weakened (its image certainly is and will), but it still will be there, and Russia will grow back losses..albeit slowly after the war will have concluded. The strategic/nuclear forces are imho not affected by all of this, and thats why Russias global position will still be politically significant, and thats why i think it can be a rallying point for all those who want/need to oppose "us". Russia still holds significant global resources and the ability to convert them into money. Its armed forces will be still strong enough not to become a puppet of another entity trying to exploit those resources.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Its armed forces will be still strong enough not to become a puppet of another entity trying to exploit those resources.

I think Russia will become (if it's not already) China's puppet, not through military action but rather economic expansionism.

[The Grand Nudger]

Even russia believes that without a successful exit from this war this year they will be reduced to regional power status. I think that's optimistic of them.

[The Architect Of Fate]

I wonder that if Russia gets to keep any of the Ukrainian territory it captured  (I hope none ) how long  will it be able to hold it  without a massive military presence there ?

[The Architect Of Fate]

I always find it odd how people insist Ukraine should give territory for peace I often wonder how eager they would be to hand over parts of their country to a  foreign power.