RE: Donald Trump manages to be more sensible on Syria than Hilary
October 12, 2016 at 11:11 pm
(This post was last modified: October 13, 2016 at 12:02 am by The Grand Nudger.)
Let's explore a little more, shall we? What putin wants and what the us want in syria are very nearly the same things. They're -using- assad and his grudge against aleppo. His only purpose -to them- is being a yesman for their involvement. Their bombing is more than likely a tool to grant them, not assad, a better position at the negotiating table.
I'd make the case that the us and other involved parties can grant russia the legitmacy they desire in ways that a man who gassed his own people simply can't (not necessarily in syria, but legitimacy -in syria- hardly seems to be the prize). Further, this negotiating table has to materialize soon, before turkey and suadi arabia (hello iran, pewpewpew) hop in proper...because dealing with them won't be the walk in the park that bombing civilians and unconventionals has been. Those two, point of fact, will fuck them up royally.
They know this too. The business with turkey and the kurds is just a warning shot.
A Russian/US brokered transition is the goal. If that can't happen unless they stop the bombing of aleppo, and if we can offer them what they hope to get out of that bombing (that better seat above) without the need of the bombing in question...they'd probably be interested. Assad is the only fly in the ointment, but as this develops he's becoming more of a liability than he's worth to -anyone- involved. That russia desperately -needs- a us more amenable to working with russia, even making concessions, is evident in their involvement in our current election cycle. If you think were overextended...imagine russias predicament juxtaposed against putins need to win? They -know- they won't get what they want if they have a hostile white house to deal with, no matter how many towns in syria they level.
Personally, I think we have alot of leverage here (and so does russia), but we cant use it while playing up to cold war stereotypes and fears, by repeating the mistakes of both of our countries pasts. The idea that russia cant be stopped -in this particular thing- without a declaration of war or direct hostilities between our countries, is, imo, one of those mistakes. An offer to help de-escalate is what we have here, I don't think any tough guy bullshit (like, say, a no fly zone) will work because it can't get russia what they want (or us, please, russia, pound the shit out of isis with your bombers)...and so they'd have no reason to come to the table in the first place....and we obviously lack the will at present, even if we don't lack the ability. We're basically dealing with the national equivalent of a kid screaming "acknowledge me!" while they do shit that could hurt themselves and everyone around them. Not exactly a difficult request to meet.
I'd make the case that the us and other involved parties can grant russia the legitmacy they desire in ways that a man who gassed his own people simply can't (not necessarily in syria, but legitimacy -in syria- hardly seems to be the prize). Further, this negotiating table has to materialize soon, before turkey and suadi arabia (hello iran, pewpewpew) hop in proper...because dealing with them won't be the walk in the park that bombing civilians and unconventionals has been. Those two, point of fact, will fuck them up royally.
They know this too. The business with turkey and the kurds is just a warning shot.
A Russian/US brokered transition is the goal. If that can't happen unless they stop the bombing of aleppo, and if we can offer them what they hope to get out of that bombing (that better seat above) without the need of the bombing in question...they'd probably be interested. Assad is the only fly in the ointment, but as this develops he's becoming more of a liability than he's worth to -anyone- involved. That russia desperately -needs- a us more amenable to working with russia, even making concessions, is evident in their involvement in our current election cycle. If you think were overextended...imagine russias predicament juxtaposed against putins need to win? They -know- they won't get what they want if they have a hostile white house to deal with, no matter how many towns in syria they level.
Personally, I think we have alot of leverage here (and so does russia), but we cant use it while playing up to cold war stereotypes and fears, by repeating the mistakes of both of our countries pasts. The idea that russia cant be stopped -in this particular thing- without a declaration of war or direct hostilities between our countries, is, imo, one of those mistakes. An offer to help de-escalate is what we have here, I don't think any tough guy bullshit (like, say, a no fly zone) will work because it can't get russia what they want (or us, please, russia, pound the shit out of isis with your bombers)...and so they'd have no reason to come to the table in the first place....and we obviously lack the will at present, even if we don't lack the ability. We're basically dealing with the national equivalent of a kid screaming "acknowledge me!" while they do shit that could hurt themselves and everyone around them. Not exactly a difficult request to meet.
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