Donald Trump manages to be more sensible on Syria than Hilary

[The Grand Nudger]

There's sticking points here. Russia said it would only cooperate with us there if we laid our intelligence bare -- which of course gives good intel on methods if not actual sources which could be popped -- er, plucked -- to our deficit. You're right about their basing; not only do we do the same thing, but acknowledging that by conceding to them their own would probably be oil on rough waters. But then how much control would we have over rebels insistent on overthrowing the same regime which granted those basing concessions? If those rebels knew we were agreeing to that, would they listen to our admonishments to stop fighting?

I think they'd listen to russias, which is exactly what russia is counting on too.  If they couldn't be enticed to stop then russia is going to get shellacked in syria while being demonized globally.  The gushing reports of early success don't alter the fact that they, too, are currently bogged down.  That's why they resorted to warcrimes in the first place.  What they were doing initially wasn't getting them what -they- wanted.  

What's happening in Aleppo is a crime against humanity. But all the hand-wringing in the world won't change that; it is unfolding as we type, the negotiations are shattered, Russia and America are as distant as they were 50 years ago, and we've got very little skin in the game there.

I think that distance is something that we need to fix.  Here's an opportunity.  

They are embroiled in a war already. Why should we pull their chestnuts out of the fire?

Not the kind of war that;s brewing.  It would be orders of magnitude shittier.  They're crushing dissidents and unconventionals, at present.  Turkey has the second largest army in nato, and even though I think russia would win any engagement on that count..it would cost them more than syria is worth, and more importantly, india and china would see their products get blasted to shit regardless of how well they do.  Nothing good can come from continued and escalating hostilities, for putin or anyone else.  Secure basing?  No.  Better exports for arms?  No.  Global legitimacy?  No.  Support at home?  No. Some version of this is likely the narrative that our government is trying to convince their government of.

Turkey's gone. The coup took care of that; it was Erdogan's Reichstag fire. Turkey is nominally a NATO member, but they are not our ally, and we have no sway there any more, given the tensions of the last few months.

They depend upon our arms and support, no matter how much they thrash around about it.  They'd be annihilated in a conflict with russia, but that doesn't seem to stop them from picking a fight with the kurds after they signaled their willingness to work with russia (and for other ancient grudges).  

Saudi? Perhaps we can, in concert with the UK, leash them in by restricting arm sales. But maybe not -- they're engaging in proxy-war with Iran both in Syria and Yemen (after their failure in devastated Iraq).

You're sure right about allowing the Russians to back out and save face at the same time, but I don't see that American ground troops allows that -- it'll be seen, in the Kremlin if not elsewhere, as turning to America for help.

Image is easier to manage than ground war.  I doubt that the kremlin would have any trouble spinning -anything- to their people, but I don't think that they'd have to spin much anyway.  They've been publicly claiming that they want a more cooperative US.  That we need to work together for peace, it could easily be seen as the end of american belligerance towards russia, and russia joining the table of first rate powers.  Besides, they'd be getting some combination of everything they want. Here;s the opportunity.

Put from another angle, they won;t get anything they want from being seen to reverse themselves on every bullshit story they;ve already spun. If a path to de-escalation is offered, if the lifting of sanctions and welcoming to the greater table is offered, if the US offers it's support for -their- interests. There's no wiggle room left, then, to claim that they are anything but opportunistic invaders..and all of a sudden the reason they got into this shit (to distract from their previous missteps) comes back to haunt them..only worse, because now, warcrimes. They're no more an island than we are. They can't withstand being put into that situation, and nary a shot would have to be fired.