(October 24, 2016 at 3:50 am)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:(October 24, 2016 at 3:44 am)robvalue Wrote: Of course I will want any child abuser put away in prison for as long as possible, as much as anyone else. But the problem is with assuming all/most paedophiles will be child abusers. Since we have so little data, it's a ridiculous conclusion to draw. As has been said, if we only know about abusers that get caught, and have no idea how many non-abusers there are, it's a self-selecting sample.
It's not self-selecting. It's selected by the efficiency of law-enforcement, the willingness and/or ability of victims to report the crime, and the ability of prosecutors to prove the incident happened.
I wouldn't call that conclusion "ridiculous". "Unsupported"? Sure. "Erring on the side of caution"? Just as surely.
Because you cannot, and do not, know if and when any particular pedophile will give into his drive.
I'd say it's highly a highly unreasonable assumption. Being a child molester doesn't even make a person a pedophile. Rapists don't usually seek out people based on sexual attraction. I'd say the vast majority of them seek out victims based on accessibility and likelihood of not being caught.