The Problem Has Now Been Defined

[Tonus]

Do you reckon Trump will run again in 2020?

That's a good question.  I don't think it's possible to read him this early, but I would not be shocked if he declined a second term.  I think that for most of his life, when he "won" at something he would just go back to his day-to-day routine but the President doesn't get that luxury.  And the President is under constant and intense scrutiny every day and with every decision and every word and every action.  I don't think Trump has the temperament to deal with that, and I expect that the press --and more importantly, foreign leaders-- will be unrelenting in its attempts to provoke him.  Can he deal with tough questions delivered ruthlessly (or stupid questions delivered aggressively) day in and day out?  Can he avoid reading the papers when he commits a gaffe and the opinion pages are burning with condemnation?  The GOP's biggest effort may be to try to turn him into the opposite of what attracted so many voters to him in the first place.

If he can make the transition from a blurt-whatever-comes-to-mind brute to a savvy politician and the economy is doing well in 2019-20, he may find himself enjoying the job enough to want to finish it.  But unless the economy booms in the next twenty-four months then he is likely to face what most first-term Presidents do, which is a bruising two-year initiation by fire followed by Democrat gains in 2018 and increasing hostility from congress.  Would a second-half uptick in the nation's fortunes be enough to wash the sour taste from his mouth?  Hard to say without first seeing how he handles those first two years.