RE: North Korea Now Making Missile Ready Nuclear Weapons
August 9, 2017 at 9:22 am
(This post was last modified: August 9, 2017 at 9:35 am by Anomalocaris.)
The problem here are the following:
1. North Korea has an unknown but likely non-trivial number of nuclear warheads.
2. North Korea is likely not far from being able to put such warheads on missiles. They may already be able to do so for some shorter range missiles, we don't know.
3. Kim and his family have murdered far too many people for it to be remotely plausible that any of them would die peacefully in their beds after they were deposed. They don't want to be hunted and slaughtered like dogs, so they will never give up under any circumstances the only garranty for their own safety, which is their absolute rule over the military and security apparatus of their state.
4. American propaganda has villanized the Kim regime for too long such that if there was a military action and America fail to depose Kim, it would seem to domestic audience like an outright military defeat for America. American defeat at the door step of the only serious rival superpower china, and right under the eyes of the two really stellar success stories of 70 years of American hegemony in the west pacific - South Korea and Japan, is likely to presage the end of American influence in the region. So if there is a war in Korea and Kim is not deposed, then whoever is the president will be toast in the next election.
5. American also could not credibly offer Kim safety to induce them to leave peacefully to achieve our aims, both for reason number 4, and because of Obama/clinton's principled but moronic decision not to protect the life of another despot, kadafi of Libya.
6. Hence any American military action must go all out and depose Kim, and thus present a mortal threat to Kim regime, and mortal threat to Kim rule is precisely the only time Kim will likely use, and the one time he will certainly use, his nuclear weapons.
7. China is unlikely to step in and depose Kim for the US. CHina has no wish to be on the receiving end of Kim's nuclear weapons either.
from this we can conclude:
1. Kim will be of absolutely no threat, at least to America, if there is no imminent sign of American military action, despite any bluster.
2. Kim will absolutely use every last nuclear weapons he has got, if he is certain a military action against him is imminent.
1. North Korea has an unknown but likely non-trivial number of nuclear warheads.
2. North Korea is likely not far from being able to put such warheads on missiles. They may already be able to do so for some shorter range missiles, we don't know.
3. Kim and his family have murdered far too many people for it to be remotely plausible that any of them would die peacefully in their beds after they were deposed. They don't want to be hunted and slaughtered like dogs, so they will never give up under any circumstances the only garranty for their own safety, which is their absolute rule over the military and security apparatus of their state.
4. American propaganda has villanized the Kim regime for too long such that if there was a military action and America fail to depose Kim, it would seem to domestic audience like an outright military defeat for America. American defeat at the door step of the only serious rival superpower china, and right under the eyes of the two really stellar success stories of 70 years of American hegemony in the west pacific - South Korea and Japan, is likely to presage the end of American influence in the region. So if there is a war in Korea and Kim is not deposed, then whoever is the president will be toast in the next election.
5. American also could not credibly offer Kim safety to induce them to leave peacefully to achieve our aims, both for reason number 4, and because of Obama/clinton's principled but moronic decision not to protect the life of another despot, kadafi of Libya.
6. Hence any American military action must go all out and depose Kim, and thus present a mortal threat to Kim regime, and mortal threat to Kim rule is precisely the only time Kim will likely use, and the one time he will certainly use, his nuclear weapons.
7. China is unlikely to step in and depose Kim for the US. CHina has no wish to be on the receiving end of Kim's nuclear weapons either.
from this we can conclude:
1. Kim will be of absolutely no threat, at least to America, if there is no imminent sign of American military action, despite any bluster.
2. Kim will absolutely use every last nuclear weapons he has got, if he is certain a military action against him is imminent.
