North Korea Backs Down

[Anomalocaris]

Just as I thought they would.  Kim backs down.

North Korea is backing off a threat to fire missiles at the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam, according to a new report.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said he had decided not to launch an attack but warned he could change his mind.

http://thehill.com/policy/defense/346566...eat-report

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Let's see, their ultimate goal is regime survival.  Their method is nuclear deterrent.   They can't give a rat's ass about Guam.  Threatening Guam is just a convenient way for them to reinforce to the world that they are verging on being able to hit the US and thus have a credible deterrent.

Our ultimate goal is probably regime change,  our method is through preventing them from getting an effective nuclear deterrent.  We've had Guam for 120 years.

So  where does their backing down get us?

They keep their nuclear deterrent.  No regime change in sight.  They promise not to attack what they don't give a rat's ass about.  We manage to get them to affirm they will not attack, for now, what they don't care about and we've already had anyway for 120 years, thus confirming for the world what Kim wants the world to know, which Kim can attack the US, and only agreed, as if his agreement is a valuable and reliable thing, to abstain from doing so.  

The argument shifted from what he cared about - his nuclear deterrent - to what he doesn't care about, Guam.  He gives up on threatening Guam now, we give up on preventing him from having the permanent ability to threaten Guam, Hawaii, and then the continental United States.

Yeah, we won.  A few more victories like this and they might even promise not to nuke the Washington monument.

There was always almost nothing we could have done to prevent them from consolidating and expanding their nuclear deterrent.   But the tantrum we threw is absolute own goal, because it made our powerlessness, and our futile frustration at our powerlessness, the headline news everywhere in the world.

Just as people say, it is better to keep your mouth shut and let people suspect you are an idiot than to open your mouth and remove all doubt, so it is better to keep your mouth shut and let people think your are powerless, than to throw a ineffectual tantrum and remove all doubt.