(August 30, 2021 at 3:49 pm)Helios Wrote:Quote:Scientists consider the lab-leak hypothesis to still be plausible. They have always considered natural origin more likely, but we will likely never know.I disagree
Yes, people bring up "evidence" that may not really be evidence, and spin it into a conspiracy theory, but the possibility is still there.
And how do you assess the probability of each? I don't know, and I doubt you do either.
The arguments I've seen make both possible. If precursor viruses were found in animals, it might rule out the lab idea, but so far none have been found. This is truly a novel virus with two major genetic modifications that make it perfect for creating a human pandemic. A virus with only one of those modifications must be prevalent in animals that live around humans for this to happen naturally. They haven't found it. Of course, China claims this means the virus didn't even come from China -- but it is also a possibility that it could be created by gain-of-function research.
Did The Wuhan Lab even do this research? If no, then the lab theory is bunk, leak or not. Why can't China let people investigate? I can think of 3 reasons -- pride, they do other shady stuff they don't want known, or they know its the source.
I'm not aware of any recent scientist that has come out and said the lab-leak is impossible. I haven't even heard them say "highly unlikely". I've only heard that most continue to think the natural origin is more likely - but who knows until more viral evidence is found.