China & Russia

[The Grand Nudger]

Chinese leadership would have to be smoking the same meth that russian leadership has been on if they think they're going to pull off an invasion.  Taiwan is much better defended than Ukraine was and china is less militarily capable than russia.  It's unclear why china would even want a damaged taiwan.

The People’s Liberation Army is a much fiercer opponent. They are already the N-1 fleet in the world. Their Chengdu J-20 are similar to NATO F-35’s. And the rest of their equipment and army is very modern too.
 

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China can still not move onto Taiwan any time soon. And (you are right) they wouldn’t want that either. If only the microprocessor industry in Taiwan is hit, this will cripple all of their major industries as well.
 
So things are moving in the right direction now:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/business-chin...00171.html
 
Many Western Companies are moving out while they can. And they will probably not repeat the mistake in India. Because much of the know-how of western companies has already been transferred to the Chinese. Now (for instance) they have the cheapest and most effective Electric cars to invade European markets (And the EU is protecting itself by pointing out to the fact that these cars are too heavily subsidized by the Chinese Government).
 
They are also investing very heavily on AI technologies. And they also have this vision of “world domination by 2025”. So if the US was to become busy fighting a war with Iran (before the end of the war in Ukraine) Xi could be tempted to make a move on Taiwan. Similarly, they may be waiting for some sort of mismanagement in the West to compete more decisively with the West in many key sectors (like AI for instance).
 

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But I’m still counting on the rational fabric of their society. I think, they would not act like a destabilizing element in the world like Russia did for so many years. So I’m always in favor of all sorts of diplomatic efforts and enhanced dialogue toward that country.

Just....no.  Yes, I get that's their ad copy, but the reality is far less imposing. For the other thing, never ever count on rational society. GIGO> Rational people supplied with bad facts cannot be expected to arrive at true or useful or decent conclusions even if they do arrive at rational ones.

The us could wage war against the entire earth, and win. Not decently, not righteously, just shitcan all of that. As a consequence of our spending habits and deeply militaristic culture that have long shat on americans themselves, first. Iran pestering us would not, in any way, stop us from annihilating any other opponent. You have to depend on -us- preventing -ourselves- from doing that...and I point you back in the direction of expectations of the rational for at least some hope in that regard. There is no country on earth and no coalition of countries on earth that could prevent the us from achieving military victory. That's the little kernel of truth behind all of these other despots wigging out about a unipolar world. For better and for worse. Political or diplomatic victory (as in outside of military victory) is more elusive..and, arguably, more important.