(February 4, 2024 at 10:27 am)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:(February 3, 2024 at 9:50 pm)neil Wrote: I think it's still very early; we have several months before election day. I'm willing to agree that the next POTUS will be a Democrat or Republican (rather than any of the independent or 3rd party candidates), but not necessarily Trump or Biden - at this time.
What a daring thing to say!
(February 3, 2024 at 9:50 pm)neil Wrote: Efforts are being made to block Trump from being on ballots & if SCOTUS were to say that he's disqualified for insurrection, then obviously he'll no longer be a candidate.
The SCOTUS with three of Trump's appointees? That SCOTUS? No, they will allow him onto ballots as they won't want to be thought of as impeding democracy.
(February 3, 2024 at 9:50 pm)neil Wrote: With the influence peddling allegations/situation against Biden, something like an impeachment or whatever could mean he might also no longer be a candidate.
Even if the House can manage to lay charges, Biden still won't be convicted with 50 Dems in the Senate.
(February 3, 2024 at 9:50 pm)neil Wrote: I could be wrong; I'm not a legal expert. I'm just guessing based on what's being reported in the news. If they are possible, then I think the likelihood is significant.
If you wanted me to venture a guess on who I think could be the POTUS candidates, I would say Harris vs. Haley (nothing more than just my own guess).
Those are the only real alternatives, sure. But this is much ado about nothing. Trump may or may not be sitting in the pen by polling day, but our courts work slowly enough.
(February 3, 2024 at 9:50 pm)neil Wrote: What I'm trying to say is that the Gaza single-issue voters isn't necessarily what matters or the only thing that's going to matter for Biden.
I know. I've already acknowledged that.
(February 3, 2024 at 9:50 pm)neil Wrote: Gaza doesn't only matter to American Muslim voters, it also matters to a broader range of American voters who aren't Muslims - regardless of whether or not any of them are single-issue voters.
I think it's fair to say Muslims are more likely to be single-issue voters about Gaza than non-Muslims. Should Biden risk 2 million votes with polls so dismal?
(February 3, 2024 at 9:50 pm)neil Wrote: It can also have an impact on Trump; some Muslim Americans vote Republican, and some of them could be Gaza single-issue voters; also, not all (non-Muslim) Republicans or Right-leaning swing voters in general are for US support of Israel's atrocities against Gaza.
Do you have any numbers supporting these claims? How many Republican Muslims does Trump stand to lose, against how many Dem Muslims Biden stands to lose?
I don't know specific numbers. Does that detail matter?
