2024 US Presidential Election

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

Could Nikki Haley be a spoiler?

She’s consistently pulling 30-40% of the Republican vote, and a little higher in some polls. Her fundraising seems strong, even without the Koch money. 

That said, her path to the nomination is difficult (to put it mildly). Is there any chance that, once Trump locks it up, she’ll run as a third party candidate? She seems to have significant appeal among Republicans who are fed up with Trump, and might even garner support from independents and conservative Democrats who think Biden is too feeble for the job.

Considering that she’d hardly be a ‘fringe’ candidate, would a third party run alter the dynamics of the race?

Boru

If Haley runs third-party, I think it hurts Trump more than Biden.

Agreed. She’d probably pull enough Republicans to make a difference, but not enough independents or centrist Democrats. I think the likely outcome is that Biden wins by a bigger majority than he would if Haley dropped out completely.

Boru