RE: 2024 US Presidential Election
October 13, 2024 at 9:54 pm
(This post was last modified: October 13, 2024 at 9:57 pm by Thumpalumpacus.)
(October 13, 2024 at 5:40 pm)Silver Wrote: But there is a scenario where it could never matter if everyone who identifies with that party turns out to vote. Because if their numbers are less than the opposition, not even all the opposition need to turn out to win.
The issue with your thinking is that registering to vote indicates a positive commitment to vote. It doesn't happen that way.
Folks can check the box at the DMV to register to vote while renewing their driver's license. Folks may register with the intent to vote but get called into work. Folks may register to vote to show off the card and get pushy family members off their backs, and then don't show up at the polls. And with polling, folks can say they're registered, but actually aren't.
I actually took my first poll in my life today -- a call-in pollster. She asked me whether I was registered to vote -- "yes" -- and then asked a more pertinent question: "How likely are you to vote". But she didn't check. Took my word for it. I could have lied, and she'd have reported me as "registered".
Registration measures eligibility. If 50 million Dems register and forty million Repubs register, and 100% of Repubs turn out but only 70% of Dems do, who's likely to win?
Registration is important, but not as much as energy and activation. Get out and vote against Trump -- and DeSantis, and Scott, and so on. You more than most here should understand what swings in the balance.