If I were an Atheist

[Hatshepsut]

Yah. There are fashion trends in science just like anything else. Much of what we call "scientific fact" is really Political Correctness.

Such as?

The extreme danger levels imputed to cigarette smoke, for example. Fifty years ago the doctors would smoke by the hospital bedside. Nowadays health brochures talk about "third-hand smoke," which is the residue or trace of tar on a smoker's hair and clothes, as a killer of small children.

Of course smoking is objectively known to be bad, and I can see the resulting indoor air pollution as also bad. At the same time, the political attitude has changed to become violently against tobacco. I suspect this leads to its dangers being dramatized and inflated to some degree. The people who yell about "third hand" smoke are often the same ones who say that smoking marijuana is good for you. I think there should be a scientific consensus that smoke hurts your lungs regardless of what is burnt, but that gets in the way of Political Correctness, which is stumbling over its feet to approve of pot and get rid of tobacco.

I like science, but I refuse to be blind regarding the social influences on its practice.

---

Pilots take aviation weather people seriously and so should we. I'm willing to defer to the better-informed opinion of climatologists. But that's trust, a form of belief.

When predictions are made on the basis of an enormous body of facts and mathematical principles, they're usually a safe bet...comparing it to religious belief is just downright disingenuous.

Perhaps they are a safer bet. But psychologically, belief in scientific prediction isn't much different than belief in oracles. We take comfort from science in much the same way as pre-scientific societies were reassured by oracles.