Who will realistically win the 2012 presidential election?

[Whateverist]

[quote='whateverist' pid='303901' dateline='1340942084']
That depends on who votes and who we vote for.

Tautological statement is tautological.

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Oh I had intended to communicate a little sarcasm and perhaps a nag as well as to state the obvious.

[JohnDG]

It doesn't matter which side wins our government is on a set path. Best guess though, obama.

[KichigaiNeko]

From an antipodean perspective it seems likely that Obama will win the election. The other candidates seem too disorganised.

[DeistPaladin]

That depends on who votes and who we vote for.

"Pretty much as I predicted, except that the Silly Party won. I believe this is largely due to the number of votes cast."
- Monte Python, Election Night Special

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Let's hope enough of us learned from that.

Let me disabuse you of that hope now, they haven't and never will.

Conservative Republicans in America can't clearly remember last year, never mind what happened during the last administration. I'm not kidding. I seriously think something is wrong with their memory functions.

Shall we run down the list?

* These are people who still think cutting taxes for the rich and deregulating the markets will help the economy, despite what a disaster these policies have been for the last 30 years.
* These are people who idolize St. Ronnie, having no concept of any actual history of his administration.
* These are people who STILL think there were WMD in Saddam Hussein's Iraq, or at least 63% of them still do

It's hard to learn from your mistakes when you live in a fantasy world.

Unfortunately, I do remember relatively recent history all too vividly. In 2004, we re-elected a man who, by that time, everyone should have known had just lied us into a disastrous war. In 2008, 9/20 voters still voted for McSame and Fundy-Bimbo despite the disaster of the Bush administration and one of the most bumbling campaigns I've ever witnessed. I've consequently come to place no confidence in my fellow American voters and take nothing for granted.

[Mister Agenda]

I think Obama, incumbent's edge, he's have to do something pretty stupid to mess it up now.

The first rule of Tautology Club is the first rule of Tautology Club.

[DeistPaladin]

I think Obama, incumbent's edge, he's have to do something pretty stupid to mess it up now.

Obama has proven himself quite able to demoralize his own base and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Maybe Romney will say "boo" and Obama will give him the election in the spirit of bipartisanship.

Don't get me wrong, I'm holding my nose and voting for Obama and I encourage everyone else to do the same because Romney will be so much worse. But history will have to judge whether Obama is a cowardly wimp, a tragic visionary (who was willing to sacrifice everything for bipartisanship) or a sellout.

Personally, I think the tragic visionary is the most compelling explanation for his behavior but the conspiracy theorist in me finds the "sellout" hypothesis would explain a lot.

[Whateverist]

I think Obama, incumbent's edge, he's have to do something pretty stupid to mess it up now.

The first rule of Tautology Club is the first rule of Tautology Club.

But the second rule is nuance.