Would you be an atheist if science and reason wasn't supportive of atheism?

[Shell B]

For the record, I think most here wouldn't care if atheism was irrational, they would still be atheists.

Try not to think too hard. You're thinking yourself into the wrong a lot here.

[Vincenzo Vinny G.]

[The Grand Nudger]

[Zen Badger]

[Vincenzo Vinny G.]

Did you come up with this yourself or did you copy and paste it?

So, in other words, you wouldn't like to elaborate. That's okay, I didn't expect you to anyway.

Along your first interpretation, it's absolutely false. Consider this analogy "In the United States, the probability of winning the lottery is exactly 1 in 1. But for Bob, because, well, there Bob is with his winning ticket."

It's not even a tiny smidgeon false. Read very carefully. Your analogy however, is pathetic. But for Bob what? If Bob has a winning ticket in his hands what is the probability of him winning the lottery Vinny?

That's not how probability works. In fact there's a name for the kind of fallacy you are using here. The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy.

It is exactly how probability works, or more precisely..how it doesn't when you attempt to reach a conclusion about the likelihood of an event that's already happened by way of granting any given cause for shits and giggles.

It's when someone fires randomly at the side of a barn, and then draws bulls-eyes around the bullet-hole and calls himself a sharpshooter. Ie, you are using data that is not meant to give us proper probability.

That was my pro-tip, by the way.

That's not exactly what it is, but close enough. Maybe you could elaborate on the mountains of data I'm ignoring?

Of all the fucking things you could have officially gone all apologetic about, you chose fine tuning.......

The problem is, you have two separate, contradictory probabilities of Bob winning the lottery.

Before he wins it's 1 in n number of tickets.

After he wins it's 1 in 1?

This is nonsense. You can't have two different, contradictory probabilities for one situation.

After he wins, it's not even the same scenario, the previous odds don't apply.

I know how difficult it is to admit you were wrong and I'm right. So I won't even expect you to do anything other than make personal attacks and say "you're wrong, you're wrong" without engaging with what I'm saying.

But I hope you at least understand that you can't have two separate probabilities for the same instance. Just like you can't have two different heights using the same units for the same person at the same time in the same place.

Only one probability is right for Bob winning the lottery, and 1-1 is not it. That's why we're not out there buying up lottery tickets right now.

[The Grand Nudger]

The problem is, you have two separate, contradictory probabilities of Bob winning the lottery.

Before he wins it's 1 in n number of tickets.

After he wins it's 1 in 1?

This is nonsense. You can't have two different, contradictory probabilities for one situation.

Bolding is mine..........

After he wins, it's not even the same scenario, the previous odds don't apply.

Bolding is mine...........

I know how difficult it is to admit you were wrong and I'm right. So I won't even expect you to do anything other than make personal attacks and say "you're wrong, you're wrong" without engaging with what I'm saying.

Feel free to elaborate on exactly where I've failed to explain to you that "odds" mean jack shit with regards to events that have already occurred?

But I hope you at least understand that you can't have two separate probabilities for the same instance. Just like you can't have two different heights using the same units for the same person at the same time in the same place.

Good thing we don;t actually have two contradictory probabilities, eh? Do you want people to humor you or not?

Only one probability is right for Bob winning the lottery, and 1-1 is not it. That's why we're not out there buying up lottery tickets right now.

1-1 if he has the ticket in hand. The probability of any event, given that the event already occurred, is always 1:1. The problem is...the way the question is manufactured, not probability.

What's the probability that you posted your last response?

[Angrboda]

If anybody needs me, I'll be over here, kissing Hank's ass.

[Vincenzo Vinny G.]

The problem is, you have two separate, contradictory probabilities of Bob winning the lottery.

Before he wins it's 1 in n number of tickets.

After he wins it's 1 in 1?

This is nonsense. You can't have two different, contradictory probabilities for one situation.

Bolding is mine..........

After he wins, it's not even the same scenario, the previous odds don't apply.

Bolding is mine...........

I know how difficult it is to admit you were wrong and I'm right. So I won't even expect you to do anything other than make personal attacks and say "you're wrong, you're wrong" without engaging with what I'm saying.

Feel free to elaborate on exactly where I've failed to explain to you that "odds" mean jack shit with regards to events that have already occurred?

Are you kidding?

An improbable event doesn't become probable just because time has passed.

Nobody calculates probabilities like this.

A coincidence that happened in the past is still a coincidence. An inevitability that happened in the past is still an inevitability.

If you wind back the clock and run the event again you just might get a very different outcome than your 1:1 prediction.

How old are you?

edit: Instead of wasting my time with this crap, go learn about Bayes Theorem. I'll even tutor you on Skype or something.

[cratehorus]

Bolding is mine..........

Bolding is mine...........

Feel free to elaborate on exactly where I've failed to explain to you that "odds" mean jack shit with regards to events that have already occurred?

Are you kidding?

An improbable event doesn't become probable just because time has passed.

Nobody calculates probabilities like this.

A coincidence that happened in the past is still a coincidence. An inevitability that happened in the past is still an inevitability.

If you wind back the clock and run the event again you just might get a very different outcome than your 1:1 prediction.

How old are you?

hey vinny why these assholes bothering you?

[Something completely different]

ohhh cute.


When Harry met Sally.