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Mathematical Proof that Absence of Evidence *IS* Evidence of Absence
May 13, 2013 at 10:39 am
What do you guys think?
"Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by the rulers as useful" - Edward Gibbon (Offen misattributed to Lucius Annaeus Seneca or Seneca the Younger) (Thanks to apophenia for the correction)
'I am driven by two main philosophies:
Know more about the world than I knew yesterday and lessen the suffering of others. You'd be surprised how far that gets you' - Neil deGrasse Tyson
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
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RE: Mathematical Proof that Absence of Evidence *IS* Evidence of Absence
May 13, 2013 at 11:08 am
"Absense of evidence is not evidence of absense" Carl Sagan / say was he not the atheist guy who got all upset when the theists hi-jacked this quote of his, and then tried to say, that he did not mean it, the way he wrote it ?
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RE: Mathematical Proof that Absence of Evidence *IS* Evidence of Absence
May 13, 2013 at 11:28 am
Well, absence of evidence is NOT evidence of absence.... but it's a damn good hint towards absence.
Hence the whole video dealing in probabilities. There's a good chance that absence is true.... but it's not evidence.
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RE: Mathematical Proof that Absence of Evidence *IS* Evidence of Absence
May 13, 2013 at 11:44 am
(This post was last modified: May 13, 2013 at 12:55 pm by Anomalocaris.)
It depends on whether any presence would be strongly expected, reasonably and a priori, to be accompanied by detectable evidence.
For example, if we think, reasonably and a priori, any fart must produce a lingering and detectable stink, then absence of smellable stink is evidence for the absence of recent fart.
On the other hand, if we think, reasonably and a priori, some fart may be oderless, then absence of smellable stink is not evidence for the absence of recent fart.
However, attempt to relax expectation ad hoc and a posteriori so as to accommodate absence of evidence, as practiced by christians and required to sustain belief in any unique tenants, is evidence they never knew what the fuck they were talking about and continue to make it up as they go.
