Global Warming: Fact or Fiction?

[popeyespappy]

Below are a couple of graphs of the UAH satellite generated surface temperature record. The data is compiled by Roy Spencer and John Christi.





Happy now Stewie?

[pineapplebunnybounce]

The link is to this page: http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
My bad, I stand corrected, the link is in there, didn't look close enough

The link is to the data set. I built the graph from the data set.

Below is a graph of the UAH satellite generated surface temperature record. It is compiled by Roy Spencer and John Christi.

That's not the impression this gave. So they compiled the data, you then created the graph…
That trend line then, is your 2nd graph merely a zoomed in version of the first or has a new trend line been calculated?

You can actually see the same graph on the link. His just has a trend line. And the second graph is apparently a cut out of the first.

Anyway if you want to look at graphs, actually, I'll dig out some.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11...sITfGRDsSg

It explains how the drop in temp around 1940s was affected by volcanoes and aerosols but did not affect the long term trend. Yea, there are chemicals and particulates that can slow warming, it goes into climate engineering, and people's minds aren't so made up about whether or not it's a good thing to do.

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/

Have a look at this as well for more data (or the same data) and visualizations.

[popeyespappy]

Here are graphs of the LOTI data set for the same periods that I graphed for the UAH data. LOTI uses surface instrument data as opposed to the satellite only UAH data. LOTI along with most of the other data sets besides for UAH has peaks in the 21st century that higher than 1998. According to the UAH data 98 had the highest average temperatures of any year recorded. Most of the other records disagree.

[Darth]

Plugged the data into SPSS myself (note that I did 1998-2012 as 2013 is as yet incomplete and the data doesn't exist for december)



Was about to concede the point, but being the good science penguin that I am, rather than just eyeballing the graph and going "yeah theres some warming going on thar", I ran Pearson's correlation:

N: 180 (months)
r = .133
significance = .075

P > .05
Therefore not significant
:3

So yes, quite happy Trend-line schmend-schmine

I'm an SPSS newb though, so chances are I've done something horribly wrong (P < .05).

[popeyespappy]

Good science penguins don’t cherry pick the data to get the answer they want. Let me demonstrate.

If I run the trend from 1/98 through 12/08 I can get a negative trend.



Move the start back a year to 1/97 the trend goes positive again.



Move the original stop back a year the trend goes positive again.



You can do this at multiple points in history and make the trend line look like a stair. However the long term trend is up.



Look at the high peaks and the low peaks. Both are getting consistently higher over time. That trend has not stopped just because 1998 was an exceptionally hot year. That trend, according to the UAH data, is 0.19 degrees C per decade over the period of time they have been collecting data.

[houseofcantor]

Having no natural predators, we had to make our own. First ourselves, then our climate.

The issue is rather intricate and complex. I don't make policy, I sit in my room and obsess over my Gwynnies. When it comes to causes, I'm more inclined to take the Sacred Shotgun to a bunch of creationists than I am to actively seek resolution to ACC. I believe it is occurring, but I'm even more skeptical about proposed solutions. If I'm gonna "actually do something," that "something " would more likely be "shoot creationists" than "influence climate policy."

[Darth]

Cherry picking? Me? That's unfair. '98 was the year you yourself were working off of, the year that you brought up in response to lemon sarcastically talking about the difference between cooling and warming (a different point to the one you rebutted with your graphs). I assure you, I plugged in all the data for 98-2012, and let the program do it's thing, no cropping off years to suit my agenda, I never included 2013 cause the data isn't in yet, have no idea how it would affect it.

Jesus Titty Fucking Christ! Not this shit again.

Surface warming did not stop in 1998. Below is a graph of the UAH satellite generated surface temperature record. It is compiled by Roy Spencer and John Christi. They are both well know climate change skeptics and their data is the most conservative of all the collections of temperature data. Since it is uses only satellite data it only looks at surface temperatures and does not include what is happening under the surface of the ocean. The ocean by the way is an important part of the climate.
...


As you can see on the graphs the trend line shows that surface warming didn’t stop after 1998.

Note the plural, graphs. The second graph "shows that surface warming didn't stop after 1998". It's hardly cherry picking for me to make the graph from the same start point now is it?

And besides, my one looks as warm-tastic as yours. Which was my other point that you ignored entirely, significance.

[Belac Enrobso]

This thread is growing nicely, I love starting shit.

[Lemonvariable72]

What if there has been a general upward trend since the 1820's and it has do with things other then human activity?

[pineapplebunnybounce]

What if there has been a general upward trend since the 1820's and it has do with things other then human activity?

There is already a lot of literature trying to figure out what caused it. And now the consensus is that it is caused by human activity. Just google around I'm sure you'll find a lot of papers.