This Thing Is a Flying Pig

[Minimalist]

[SteelCurtain]

That's over 50 years, including the build/maintenance/weapons development costs. Not that that's not still a ridiculous number, but that's not what we've spent on it so far. They are developing two classified weapons systems to go along with this platform, and just like the F-14/Phoenix program and the F/A-18/Maverick program, they are costed out with the platform.

For example, the F-14/Phoenix program cost around an estimated $225B for it's 36 year lifespan, which the first aircraft were delivered in 1969. It's hard to adjust that number for inflation since they took the final delivery in 1991. But we'll assume a linear inflation (I know that's not accurate, but just for argument's sake we'll assume) and cut it down the middle, and adjust for inflation to 1980. (And that is not including the inflated costs of maintenance for 15 more years.)

So that $225B becomes $551.25B in 1991 dollars, about. So a 36 year lifecycle aircraft with one weapons system specifically developed for it in 1969 cost roughly a third of what this system will cost for 14 more years, three platforms total, and two weapons systems.

I doubt it will last that long, and I would bet (with two year old inside knowledge) that one of the weapons systems gets scrapped or sidelined.

It's a flying pig. But these numbers look gaudy because we've never attempted something this big before. And we've never experienced this much failure before. The McDonnell-Douglas/Boeing F/A-18 projects were monumental successes with only minor setbacks. But that was the Navy and M-D/Boeing working together. Now you have Lockheed, the USMC, the USN, and the USAF all with their needs, the egos of their commanders, and the bureaucracy involved with congressional inquiries that pare this thing back and eventually cost more money to deal with.

I stand by that it was an excellent idea that had too many cooks in the kitchen, and Lockheed got screwed.

[Minimalist]

Agreed - but as the report notes also:

While inflation accounts for more than one-third of the projected F-35 operating costs, military officials and industry executives were quick to point out that it is nearly impossible to predict inflation over the next half-century.


They also argue that no other weapons program's costs have been calculated over such a long period, and that even shorter-term cost projections for other aircraft do not include the cost of modernization programs and upgrades.

Guess what?  Those costs will be over-budget.

[SteelCurtain]

Oh, guaranteed.

But it's still worthwhile to remember that this is a number for three separate aircraft, not one.