Bernie Sanders - Hope?

[Minimalist]

Sanders needs to get out of the way so Democrats can unite to stop the rolling train wreck which is Donald Drumpf.

I could say the same thing about Hillary.

But Hillary does not need to win 75% of the remaining delegates to have a chance.  That is a difference.



Besides, I don't know if I could take 4 months of this 24/7 which is what the republicunt campaign against Sanders would be.

[Rev. Rye]

Sadly, I can't expect Bernie to win. I mean, I voted for him, my boss is a fan, and my writer's group all voted for him (including a self-proclaimed socialist voting in the primaries for the first time in 20 years), but we really don't expect Bernie to get the nomination. One guy in the group said that, even if he does get it, he fully expects the Democratic establishment to render unto him what Sirhan Sirhan Sirhan rendered unto RFK. Honestly, I'm inclined to agree. The Democratic Party seems to be holding out way too much hope for someone who could cooperate with the Republicans, that they'd nominate the more right-wing Hillary.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Making a point is one thing. Demonstrating your point to your own detriment is entirely another.

I believe the term you're looking for is "biting off one's nose to spite one's own face."

I can't bring myself to vote for Clinton, but I damned sure will vote against Trump. If the race is close, that means I'll punch "Hilary" on the ballot and repent at leisure. If she's winning by a comfortable margin, I'll do as I normally do and vote Libertarian -- Gary Johnson again, this year.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Trump is going to win the Republican nomination. He made major inroads on that today. He's got a 230 delegate lead, and that's without Missouri's 52 delegates, of which he gets at least 12, and then 5 more for each of the 8 districts he won.

Listening to the BBC last night, I heard a report stating that Trump would need to win 54% of the votes in the remaining primaries in order to be nominated. If that's true, and I'm unsure whether or not it is, it spells trouble: according to this report, Trump has the support of 41% of Republicans. 13% jumps don't happen much in politics, and I'm left thinking that a brokered convention is in the cards.

[Thumpalumpacus]

He is better than your nazi bitch.

Dummkopf.

[SteelCurtain]

Trump is going to win the Republican nomination. He made major inroads on that today. He's got a 230 delegate lead, and that's without Missouri's 52 delegates, of which he gets at least 12, and then 5 more for each of the 8 districts he won.

Listening to the BBC last night, I heard a report stating that Trump would need to win 54% of the votes in the remaining primaries in order to be nominated. If that's true, and I'm unsure whether or not it is, it spells trouble: according to this report, Trump has the support of 41% of Republicans. 13% jumps don't happen much in politics, and I'm left thinking that a brokered convention is in the cards.

That's not really an accurate way to look at it, though. He has to win 53% of the remaining delegates. In some states if he wins with a simple majority, he takes all the delegates. Arizona, where he's leading, is Winner-Take-All and votes next Tuesday. With Rubio out, Trump's margins are only going to increase, and a 3 person race with Kasich barely registering outside of Ohio bodes well for Trump to win more than 53%.

I'd bet that 41% is Trump vs. three others (actually that information is from January 26th - so that still includes him polling against Carson, Rubio, Fiorina, and Christie.)

His numbers against just Cruz and Kasich are more favorable. And if Kasich drops out, it's pretty much a done deal unless Jesus pulls through for Cruz.

[Thumpalumpacus]

With Rubio out, Trump's margins are only going to increase, and a 3 person race with Kasich barely registering outside of Ohio bodes well for Trump to win more than 53%.

Trump's numbers can increase even if his margin shrinks. Trump can capture some of Rubio's voters -- how many is anyone's guess [though I think Rubio supporters will trend more towards Cruz (both Cuban-American, religious)] -- and still not gain as much of them as Cruz does. I agree that Kasich is hardly a factor -- it's a two-man race at this point. I suppose it depends on who Kasich is siphoning supporters from, because he at this point appears to be the spoiler.

And if Kasich drops out, it's pretty much a done deal unless Jesus pulls through for Cruz.

I don't agree with this. Given Trump's head-to-head numbers against a Democrat candidate, his electability is in doubt. Real Clear Politics metadata shows Hilary beating Trump +6.3%, Cruz beating Clinton by +.8%, and Kasich beating Clinton by 7.4% [!]. Now, that doesn't mean that those results must have any influence in the primaries, but I'd be very surprised if the financiers of the Republican campaigns aren't looking at those numbers and thinking that they're better off giving Cruz or Kasich a better shot in a brokered convention by financing in the next few months. Trump, of course, can finance himself, but that will open him up to accusations of "buying the Presidency" in the general election, an argument that dovetails nicely with the fascist undertones he himself has spoken. If I were Robby Mook, I'd be licking my chops on this one. I could say that "Trump thinks he can buy the highest office, and can therefore do what he wants."

I don't think the Republican establishment is ready to fall behind Trump, at all. Even though Romney's blast was largely "sound and fury, signifying nothing" at the polls, I think we'll see more attacks against Trump, and from anonymous advertisers that aren't beholden to Cruz or Kasich, but more interested in stopping Trump's ongoing fracture of the party than anything else. The Republicans are scared shitless, more for the prospect of the party falling apart than for this particular election. A Trump nomination represent a short-term defeat. A brokered convention with Trump pulling his supporters away from the party out of spite finalizes the alienation that began with the Tea Partiers.

In short, a Trump nomination screws the Republicans, and a brokered convention screws the Republicans.

In this case I think it's better for the Democrats if Trump gets nominated; it allows the country to see exactly how filthy the Republicans actually are willing to get.

[SteelCurtain]

But these attacks against Trump seem only to mobilize more of his voters.

My point is that the GOP establishment is likely not to have a say. I think Trump will win the nomination outright. The egg that the right laid with it's warmongering, demagoguery, and rampant feamongering is hatching, and the monster inside is exactly what they deserve.

[Thumpalumpacus]

But these attacks against Trump seem  only to mobilize more of his voters.

Intensity of support doesn't equal raw numbers. If you look back through American history, you'll see that while divisive politicians spur debate, precisely because they're divisive, they tend to have low ceilings -- William Jennings Bryan is a good example.

My point is that the GOP establishment is likely not to have a say. I think Trump will win the nomination outright. The egg that the right laid with it's warmongering, demagoguery, and rampant feamongering is hatching, and the monster inside is exactly what they deserve.

I can't argue with the fact that the Trump candidacy is the direct result of Republican intransigence and demagoguery, but I think Trump has it much more uphill than the media is portraying right now. They're onto a Story, but the real story here is how are the Republicans going to save much at all no matter who they nominate, or how?

This is an unfolding disaster for the Republicans. They either accept Trump and all his baggage (bigotry, xenophobia, overweening hubris) as their representative nominee, or they face an internal but very public fight over the legitimacy of their nomination process. It's a Hobson's Choice for them -- either way, they lose.

[SteelCurtain]

But these attacks against Trump seem  only to mobilize more of his voters.

Intensity of support doesn't equal raw numbers. If you look back through American history, you'll see that while divisive politicians spur debate, precisely because they're divisive, they tend to have low ceilings -- William Jennings Bryan is a good example.

But it does translate well into delegates in caucus states.

Trump is turning out more voters for the Republican Party than ever before. When he is shown to be divisive, more of the clowns come to the circus.

My point is that the GOP establishment is likely not to have a say. I think Trump will win the nomination outright. The egg that the right laid with it's warmongering, demagoguery, and rampant feamongering is hatching, and the monster inside is exactly what they deserve.

I can't argue with the fact that the Trump candidacy is the direct result of Republican intransigence and demagoguery, but I think Trump has it much more uphill than the media is portraying right now. They're onto a Story, but the real story here is how are the Republicans going to save much at all no matter who they nominate, or how?

This is an unfolding disaster for the Republicans. They either accept Trump and all his baggage (bigotry, xenophobia, overweening hubris) as their representative nominee, or they face an internal but very public fight over the legitimacy of their nomination process. It's a Hobson's Choice for them -- either way, they lose.

It sure is a disaster for them. But they may be able to spin it if they glom onto him. They have to choose a path, and quickly. If they hold out until a contested convention and decide to give it to Kasich, they will reap what they sew. If they choose to go hard and strong with the "he's not that bad" gambit, they could save some face and unite the rubbish that's left.

The gamble is Trump not getting the required delegates for the nomination. If they distance themselves from him for too long they are going to crash hard after the election. During this crash, I will bathe gleefully in the schadenfreude.