UK to leave EU

[abaris]

Seems to me that it is in the EU's best interest to make an example of Britain, right now.

To a certain extent, yes. There's a fine line to walk. They certainly can't encourage the move, what with all the nationalist movements in many countries. But they can't be purely punitive so as to not hurt the global economy more than it's already hurt.

[SofaKingHigh]

There will almost certainly be some kind of interim deal, if there isn't, we're all fucked.

Why do you expect that? The exisitng deals will continue until article 50 is invoked, thus starting the seperation process. The longer this takes, the longer the markets will react unpredictable. Once article 50 is invoked, negotiations may start. What they said today is, that there's no room for sweet deals anymore. For now, until article 50 is invoked, the UK is still a member and there's nothing to renegotiate. But they also made clear that the UK and whoever may be at the helm, won't take the flight home with another cherry in their pockets and that they won't have any kind of influence on EU decisions.

Well, I wouldn't expect us to, considering we've voted to leave.

Also, you're wrong about article 50, we're still a member of the EU until those negotiations have completed.  Not once we've triggered article 50.

What she said, if I am reading it correctly, is that there will be no discussions around trade until we have left.....that isn't when we've triggered article 50 by the way, we'll still be trading with, and be a part of, the EU until those negotiations have finished.

We will then no longer be a part of the EU.

If she is to be believed, once we have left, we will have no trade deal at all with the EU.  If you read that article in full, you will read that many other EU commissioners disagree....it just won't be allowed to happen.

It's a funny situation at the minute, so it's difficult to predict, but I can't see the EU allowing their biggest customer to effectively cease trading once we've left.

[SofaKingHigh]

Seems to me that it is in the EU's best interest to make an example of Britain, right now.

That kind of politics has always worked out so well in the past.......

[downbeatplumb]

Seems to me that it is in the EU's best interest to make an example of Britain, right now.

That kind of politics has always worked out so well in the past.......

So it does happen then!

[The Grand Nudger]

If the EU is as shitty as the leave voters were made to believe, they can't really expect anything else. We've already seen the UK's strategy on the floor of the EU.

"You bunch of [insert abusive diatribe here]. That said, howsabout cutting us a favorable deal, for the good of the people and all that?"

[SofaKingHigh]

If the EU is as shitty as the leave voters were made to believe, they can't really expect anything else.

Well, ironically, in that instance it would be the EU biting off its nose to spite its face.

[abaris]

That kind of politics has always worked out so well in the past.......

Yeah, as I said, it's a fine lince to walk. But one thing they can't do, unless they want to run full autodestruct mode, is to pat the UK on it's shoulders for leaving. The signals would be fatal on many national levels and to the global market.

[SofaKingHigh]

That kind of politics has always worked out so well in the past.......

Yeah, as I said, it's a fine lince to walk. But one thing they can't do, unless they want to run full autodestruct mode, is to pat the UK on it's shoulders for leaving. The signals would be fatal on many national levels and to the global market.

Totally agree, this will be a test of leadership on both sides.

Personally, I think we will have a similar trade deal to Norway....which rather brilliantly for the frothy mouthed right wingers, will mean we will pay, pretty much, exactly what we do now to the EU, but we will also have to allow freedom of movement.

[SofaKingHigh]

If the EU is as shitty as the leave voters were made to believe, they can't really expect anything else.  We've already seen the UK's strategy on the floor of the EU.

"You bunch of [insert abusive diatribe here].  That said, howsabout cutting us a favorable deal, for the good of the people and all that?"

Yes, yes, it really is that simple.

[The Grand Nudger]

@Sofa.  

Hardly, the EU isn't going to miss the UK anymore than we'd miss a single state.  The UK's perception of it's own importance in the grander scheme of things was and is entirely blown out of proportion. It's undoubtedly in their interests to penalize the UK now, even if it wasn't before, and doing so will not penalize them in any meaningful way. The exit emboldened other factions to leave, and those who would see a penalty placed upon the UK as being too harsh are likely already part of those factions...which already have a poor opinion of the EU.

If my neighbor took a shit on the hood of my car...I'd walk into his house and drop a deuce on his kitchen table...and it wouldn't bother me a bit if that made him, or my other neighbors...think less of me.