Russia and Ukraine

[Silver]

Putin is a white christian identitarian who hates him some queers and libs. He's been their boy since the 00's. Like recognizes like. Where you and I look at putinism and russia as a cautionary tale, they see aspirational goals. If the us reich wing could flatten us cities, they would.

Indeed. And possibly the most disturbing issue is how they don't seem to register with the 'Murican intelligence agencies.

[Pat Mustard]

Putin is a white christian identitarian who hates him some queers and libs.  He's been their boy since the 00's.  Like recognizes like.  Where you and I look at putinism and russia as a cautionary tale, they see aspirational goals.  If the us reich wing could flatten us cities, they would.

As the old saying goes, nazis of a feather flock together.

Well, until it comes time to divvy up the spoils.

[The Grand Nudger]

Their goal was the swift annihilation of a country and a culture.  It not only still exists, it's making a laughingstock of them and costing them billions in weapon trades.

The s and k series was supposed to be better than patriot.  Turns out it's only marginally better than a bottle rocket. They (and by extension any other purchaser) should have spent their missile money on glide bombs.  The only people doing well off the war in ukraine, is us.

Demand for us weapon systems has increased beyond capacity...and we make alot of weapons.......meanwhile, at the last big despots ball, literally zero orders were placed for russian shit.

The S300 is quite good actually, provided that it's being used by a professionally trained force who know how to pick objectives and are motivated to use them properly.  I.e. the Ukrainian S300s have been well deployed and used.

Ukraine wants patriots.  The s and k probably don't rise to the level of quite good, but having anything that's good enough and sometimes does the job is better than nothing.  

At issue is whether the systems ever deserved their reputation, and the answer appears to be no.  Yes, garbage crews are an issue.   Poor manufacturing quality is an issue.  A clever adversary using every available method to defeat your system is an issue.  In some hypothetical world where russia was the kind of country that made better weapons and properly trained their crews and had a clown for a foe..in short, if russia were ukraine...well..looks like they'd still want patriots.

This isn't limited to just the s and k either. Russian armor has been defeated in the most absurd of ways, if you believe a single word of what russians say about russian weapons or what us defense contractors say about our own in relation. T90s have been engaged and defeated by bradleys....with the cannon. Jerry rigged toys have been striking russian vehicles with literal piles of every type of ewar russia has tied onto the hood. The dedicated ewar platforms are a favorite target for more advanced but still handmade drones. At this point they're erecting full metal sheds, murdering their traverse, and that doesn't seem to work either.

The russo-ukrainian war has been a disaster for the russian arms industry - in that the only thing they can sell on that anyone will believe them about..is that their stuff is cheap. The buyers already know that, that's the problem. Partner nations, putative allies, have to wonder if their buddy fucked them in ways that could take millions, billions, and years to recover from - if they have the time. I guess they can only hope that no one pissed at them is watching ukraine and getting ideas in the interim.

As I've mentioned in thread before, I think that this might be critical to understanding why putin rushed the invasion. If anyone knew what the world has now learned beforehand it would be the russians themselves, and they might have bnelieved that their window was closing or, in fact, already closed barring profound outcomes in third party countries - which might also help to explain why they spend more on intelligence and influence ops in those third parties than on ukraine.

[Thumpalumpacus]

The Russians are running low enough on missiles that they're sending S-300s and -400s on ground-attack missions. Wonder how that will work out when F-16s come on the scene and you've shot off half your park.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

The Russians are running low enough on missiles that they're sending S-300s and -400s on ground-attack missions. Wonder how that will work out when F-16s come on the scene and you've shot off half your park.

Puts me in mind of the Einstein quote, 'The war after the next one will be fought with stones and clubs'. I can see Russia working towards that lofty goal.

Boru

[Thumpalumpacus]

The Defense Department announced a $1 billion package for Ukraine shortly after President Biden on Wednesday signed a national security supplemental into law, aiming to deliver critical artillery rounds and air defense munitions to Kyiv as its troops struggle with dwindling resources to defend against an encroaching Russian military.



The $1 billion price tag is much higher than previous packages that have generally totaled around a few hundred million dollars, in part because Congress delayed sending more aid to Ukraine for months after the last U.S. assistance dried up at the end of 2023. That made Ukraine more desperate for aid as ammunition ran low and Russia pressed forward on the battlefield, putting Ukrainian troops on the backfoot.



A key part of the new package is 155-millimeter artillery rounds and other mortar and artillery ammunition, along with RIM-7 and AIM-9M air defense munitions. Kyiv has made both a priority, with artillery a major part of covering Ukrainian troops on the ground and air defenses crucial to defending cities.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/46178...r-ukraine/

[Leonardo17]

It's a good thing the bill was passed. Not that it is coming from a country that is key to Ukraine even winning, as The Grand Nudger said something along the lines of, but it is good that it has been passed nonetheless, as it will help Ukraine.

My readings indicate that if Ukraine can mass air defense around their planned expansions of defense plants being built, more air-defense will help them better able to help themselves. More Patriots, that'll do it. That would be an investment and not a sunk cost

Also, by releasing more ATACMs, we help them extend the range of threat to surface targets, helping to interdict logistics. And of course $61B could see American F-16s being refurbished and sent over, on top of those donated by the Danes and others, which helps both aims -- long-range interdiction and surface-attack both.

ATACMS are a very important step. Why?
 
In the beginning of the conflict no one wanted to give advanced tanks (Because Russia could use nuclear weapons if someone gave advanced tanks). Then nobody was able to advanced artillery and other advanced systems like the Himars (Because Russia threatened to use tactical nukes in retaliation). Then nobody was able to give advanced fighters to Ukraine (Because could escalate the conflict further if that happened).
 
Recently, Germans were too scared to give their Taurus missiles (and the UK their storm shadows) to Ukraine. I don’t know about ATAMC but the Taurus is something that can hit Iranian subterranean nuclear facilities if it wants to. So this is a huge step as well.
 
So the next logical step is to either adapt Ukrainian artillery to readily available western artillery shells. The rate of artillery cannot be 5 to 1 or 10 to 1. Russia can afford to waste its soldiers indefinitely. Ukraine can’t.
 
The final step than is air superiority. They are talking about 20-30 F-16’s. I think that number should be in the 300’s so the Russian cannot use their glide bombs.
 
Ukrainians are not Syrians. The conflict could end very quickly if it can’t replenish its ranks.

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On S-300’s: Here they are trying to activate S-400’s in the south-East of the country, allegedly against PKK drones but more probably against Iranian ballistic missiles. Washington is still not letting us. We are probably about to get kicked out of NATO because them.
 
These are very advanced systems against airplanes and ballistic missiles. But patriots seen to be better against cheap drones etc. The Israelis had no problem striking Istafan despite the presence of S-300’s. This is probably also why the Greeks got rid of them by simply donating them to Ukraine.

[The Grand Nudger]

Russia cannot afford to waste it's soldiers indefinitely. It's already lost too many soldiers to be operationally effective as is. I mean, I get the idea that Putin might do that anyway. Becauses he's inept, or just doesn't have an out. Still, I think that he'll eventually pull the "corruption failed me" ripcord.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Still, I think that he'll eventually pull the "corruption failed me" ripcord.

That's a hard sell when you've been the HMFIC for the last 25 years. "Wait, you didn't know about that corruption?"

[The Grand Nudger]

Sure, they'd have to put in the work. Arresting Shoigus deputies is a good start.