Russia and Ukraine

[brewer]

Is there going to be a big outbreak of covid in Ukraine?

Just saw a bomb shelter vid with little masking. Vaccination rate ~35%. May kill more than the military.

[The Grand Nudger]

Nothing to add except damn this is really sad. I was hoping this wasn’t going to go down.

Putin can suck my asshole.

If you were harboring a former soviet territory in there, he'd be all up in it.

[Deesse23]

If the Russians stopped the gas export to Germany on Nord Stream 1?   Lights will go out

Ok, please let me get more precise. Gas from Russia accounts for less than 10% of electricity in Germany.

and pensioners will freeze to death in Germany.    

Gas is making up for 50% of heating in Germany. Russian gas makes up for 50% of the gas. Thus russian gas will only make 25% of german pensioneers freeze to death.
Its end of February now, and by April heating our houses will go significantly down.

[Anomalocaris]

Nothing to add except damn this is really sad. I was hoping this wasn’t going to go down.

Putin can suck my asshole.

well, from 2000-2005, Putin did his best to try to accommodate Russia as it existed then with NATO and the US.   he went out of his way to let the US have access to russian airbases and former soviet airbases under russian influence to help support the US war in Iraq and Afghanistan.   He offered to join NATO as well if Ukraine is admitted to NATO.  that offer was dismissed.    However the color revolution in Ukraine on 2005 made it clear the US wanted to endlessly weaken russia, not to accommodate Russia as it then existed and incorporate that Russia into the US led world order.

So all this bloviating about he being a mad men who wants to reconstitute the USSR is just embarrassing.   The fact is Russia was pushed too far and was backed into a corner in a larger strategic sense.

[The Grand Nudger]

Two things can be true, I think. Russia has been backed into corner, and it just so happens that it's currently helmed by a man who's made it no secret whatsoever that he wishes to be remembered as the guy who reconstituted the former glory, such as it was, of the ussr.

If only one of these things were true the situatuation might not be as dire, for ukranians - for example, as it is. That they are both true is why it's come to this.

[Anomalocaris]

Two things can be true, I think.  Russia has been backed into  corner, and it just so happens that it's currently helmed by a man who's made it no secret whatsoever that he wishes to be remembered as the guy who reconstituted the former glory, such as it was, of the ussr.  

If only one of these things were true the situatuation might not be as dire, for ukranians - for example, as it is.  That they are both true is why it's come to this.

He experimented with other approaches to keep Russia from falling further into strategic irrelevance and diplomatic impotence. That included joining NATO. And it is clear that the west will not accommodate any Russia that has not been much farther weakened. So restoring some semblance of so the strategic depth seems to be his only option remaining

[The Grand Nudger]

I think he might be able to accomplish that without killing ukranians...and, it seems that we might be forgetting just a bit of why he's in this position to begin with. Why is nato so mean to russia and putin? Oh, no reason.

[Anomalocaris]

I think he might be able to accomplish that without killing ukranians...and, it seems that we might be forgetting just a bit of why he's in this position to begin with.  Why is nato so mean to russia and putin?  Oh, no reason.

NATO is mean to Russia because the US calls the shots at NATO.  Why is the US mean to Russia?   because the US is a hegemonic power based in North America, which is comparatively small in population, natural resource and overall economic potential compared to Euroasia,  so US could not possibly maintain its influence around the world if powers comparable to the US in economic might and nuclear power arises in Euroasia and able to assert local hegemony in key parts of euroasia.    Russia as the power at the center of Euroasia and able to dominate central asia, eastern Europe and land route between europe and Asia has undeniable potential to be the king maker in Euroasia.

[The Grand Nudger]

You may be omitting a few things there, but sure, another case where two things (or even more) can be and are true.

[viocjit]

I'd like to know a thing I can't know for the moment because this information isn't public and will maybe be never published or after my death (I'm 28 years old. If the information is released in 100 years or more I would be dead accorded to medical knowledge of nowadays).

This thing is the next. The president of Russian Federation initially wanted to put Ukraine under pressure (When Russians troops were around the border between the two states) or he did prepared invasion for month or years ?

If Russia invades fully the Ukrainian territory.
Does it means Putin will attack a country member of European Union or / and a NATO member ?

If the President of Russia attack an EU country.
What will do others members of this union ? In this case I hope they will fight (Military or / and non-military) with the party under attack by any means.
EU countries have the legal obligation to assist each others in case of an attack.

If the Russian President choose to attack a state member of NATO. In this case I hope they will fight (Military or / and non-military) with the party under attack by any means.
Think about article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. It can be used. It can maybe finish in a nuclear war.
War isn't fun , war is devastating for all parties involved , war with two sides who have an access to nuclear weapons is terrifying if a faction or both choose to use these.

Full extract of article 5 in English :
"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security"

Link to the treaty on official NATO website : https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/off..._17120.htm
Text is available in 27 languages (Some of them aren't languages of NATO members. The language of some members isn't available) : Albanian , Armenian , Croatian , Czech , Danish , Dutch , English , Estonian , French , Georgian , German , Greek , Hebrew , Hungarian , Icelandic , Italian , Latvian , Lithuanian , Norwegian , Polish , Portuguese , Russian , Slovenian , Spanish , Turkish , Ukrainian.

Full extract of article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations (There are a reference to it in article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty) :
"Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. Measures taken by Members in the exercise of this right of self-defence shall be immediately reported to the Security Council and shall not in any way affect the authority and responsibility of the Security Council under the present Charter to take at any time such action as it deems necessary in order to maintain or restore international peace and security."

Link to the charter on official UN website (Text available in the six official languages of UN that are Arabic , Chinese , English , French , Russian , Spanish) : https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter