Russia and Ukraine

[Anomalocaris]

yet tying themselves to the west got their GDP per capita on purchase power parity basis from slightly higher than Russia’s in 1990 to about half of Russia’s just before the war.

In fact just before the war the purchasing power of the average personal income in Ukraine ranks dead last in entire Europe, and world wide it is comparable to such underdeveloped states as Sri Lanka, Mongolia and Libya.

By all measures, Ukraine economic performance had been calamitous, even if we were to ignore the natural resources and soviet bequeathed infrastructure.

[Pat Mustard]

Germany has just announced that it is going to more than double its annual military spending. This will give it the world’s third largest defense budget (behind only the US and China). Other NATO members seem genuinely pleased at the news.

How’s that alliance-fracturing plan working out for ya, Vlad?

Boru

Sorry, but after building up that brand new Bundeswehr.....we gonna  have to invade something.   If you have a tool, you gotta use it, and whats good for Vlad surely is good for Olaf too.

You could invade us, we'd be more than happy to sell you stuff.

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especially as we'd be using the Yank button, which doubles the price of everything

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yet tying themselves to the west got their GDP per capita on purchase power parity basis from slightly higher than Russia’s in 1990 to about half of Russia’s just before the war.

[citation needed]

[karmaify]

yet tying themselves to the west got their GDP per capita on purchase power parity basis from slightly higher than Russia’s in 1990 to about half of Russia’s just before the war.

In fact just before the war the purchasing power of the average personal income in Ukraine ranks dead last in entire Europe, and world wide it is comparable to such underdeveloped states as Sri Lanka, Mongolia and Libya.

By all measures,  Ukraine economic performance had been calamitous, even if we were to ignore the natural resources and soviet bequeathed infrastructure.

  This was supposed to be its own thread.  But it got stuck in this thread which was written before Russia invaded the Ukraine.  That aside, I don't know what the purchasing power of the people in the Ukraine was or is.  It doesn't matter.  What does matter if the value of their country.  As for any Russian infrastructure, I'm sure that the Ukrainians would have gladly done without it and provided it for themselves.  During the times of the communist dictatorships, such as Lenin and Stalin, the Russians murdered millions of Ukrainians.  I have heard estimates from around 7 million to around 16 million.  How many were actually killed is probably hard to say. Because dead men tell no tales. On a side note, for that reason, most Ukrainians don't think of Hitler as an invader.  They think of him as a liberator.

[The Architect Of Fate]

Anomalocaris still trying to make-believe Russia has totally botched its invasion

[Brian37]

Putin is truly pathetic. Since the start of the war, Ukrainians have killed 4 of Putin's generals. Ukrainians got 34 of their own tanks destroyed, but destroyed 134 Russian tanks. Problem with Putin is he has his hands on the Nukes.

[Thumpalumpacus]

This has been a clusterfuck for Russia.

!) They clearly overestimated the combat power of their own units, while clearly underestimating the combat value of Ukrainian forces. This speaks to a basic failure of intelligence. Sun Tzu wrote something about knowing your enemy and knowing yourself.

2) The Russians have not only suffered on the battlefield, but are now and will continue to suffer politically and economically as well. Putin misjudged the international response.

3) The Russians have squandered any diplomatic trust they may have built up as well. No one trusts an aggressor nation.

4) The Russians have dialed back their war-aims from a quick seizure of Kyiv and installing a puppet-government, to refocusing on the Donbas, which they haven't captured after eight years anyway. The offensive has lost momentum, and they're regrouping with a smaller mission in mind.

5) They've lost the information war.

6) Probably the worst thing for them, they've stuck their nose in the trap, and now must either retreat -- delivering a black eye to Putin -- or keep pressing on into what will likely become an insurgency they cannot afford and will not win, which also delivers a black eye to Putin.

7) Their economy is going to be in the shitter for quite some time to come, which might also bite Putin in the ass, unless he undertakes more repressive measures ... which may only set the Russian people against him more.

There are a number of things about this invasion that baffle me, mainly doctrinal. Why didn't they seize control of the air the first day? They have the air force to do it. Why are they sending armor into urban areas without an infantry screen to safeguard the tanks? What has happened to their Army's institutional knowledge such that they're ignoring logistical issues?

Further afield of these military concerns, Putin's Russia has 1) failed in its military objectives 2) failed in its political objectives (NATO being closer rather than split), and 3) perhaps irritated China.

I think Putin's overplayed his hand, and that this will begin the unraveling of his regime. The only potential use Russia will get from this is that Ukraine has offered no NATO membership, but i that worth the cost in lives, prestige, and perhaps becoming reliant on China for its own strength?

All in all, this is without a doubt Putin's greatest blunder.

I hope the Ukrainians can stave off the attack and that in some way peace comes again to them and their land.

[The Architect Of Fate]

This has been a clusterfuck for Russia.

!) They clearly overestimated the combat power of their own units, while clearly underestimating the combat value of Ukrainian forces.

2) The Russians have not only suffered on the battlefield, but are now and will continue to suffer politically and economically as well.

3) The Russians have squandered any diplomatic trust they may have built upas well.

4) The Russians have dialed back their war-aims from a quick seizure of Kyiv and installing a puppet-government, to refocusing on the Donbas, which they haven't captured after eight years anyway.

5) They've lost the information war.

6) Probably the worst thing for them, they've stuck their nose in the trap, and now must either retreat -- delivering a black eye to Putin -- or keep pressing on into what will likely become an insurgency they cannot afford and will not win.

There are a number of things about this invasion that baffle me, mainly doctrinal. Why didn't they seize control of the air the first day? They have the air force to do it. Why are they sending armor into urban areas without an infantry screen to safeguard the tanks? What has happened to their Army's institutional knowledge such that they're ignoring logistical issues?

Further afield of these military concerns, Putin's Russia has 1) failed in its military objectives 2) failed in its political objectives (NATO being closer rather than split), and 3) perhaps irritated China.

I think Putin's overplayed his hand, and that this will begin the unraveling of his regime.

Yup this was a huge overplay and shows us just how complacent Putin has become

[Thumpalumpacus]

yet tying themselves to the west got their GDP per capita on purchase power parity basis from slightly higher than Russia’s in 1990 to about half of Russia’s just before the war.

In fact just before the war the purchasing power of the average personal income in Ukraine ranks dead last in entire Europe, and world wide it is comparable to such underdeveloped states as Sri Lanka, Mongolia and Libya.

By all measures,  Ukraine economic performance had been calamitous, even if we were to ignore the natural resources and soviet bequeathed infrastructure.

I think it's apparent to everyone observing that Ukrainians will defend their humble grubstake rather than kneel.

Their military performance has been surprisingly good, and that of the Russians surprisingly bad. Now, who's more motivated?

I doubt many will fear the Russian army after this mishmash.

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Yup this was a huge overplay and shows us just how complacent Putin has become

Or overconfident, right. He may well have misread our shitsplat at the end of Afghanistan as a signpost that we were weak. And we're clearly not strong enough to give Ukraine much more that a few thousand missiles and some lip-service right now.

In either event, he misread the tealeaves and now Russians and Ukrainians are paying the price. Apologists aside, this invasion was his decision, and the lives lost here are on him.

[Deesse23]

The war between them is a story as old as mankind.  Yet another example of one group trying to take what another group has.  Discounting Russia itself, the Ukraine is the largest European country.  I don't know if this list is including Russia itself, but here is what the Ukraine has and what Russia apparently wants.

  In industrial metals, Ukraine ranks:
  
  1st in Europe in recoverable uranium ore.
  2nd in Europe in titanium ore.
  2nd in the world in manganese ore.
  2nd in the world in iron ore.
  2nd in the world in mercury ore
  3rd in Europe in shale gas.
  4th in the world in the total value of natural resources.
  7th in the world in coal.  
  

  In agriculture Ukraine ranks:

  1st in Europe in arable land.
  3rd in the world in the area of black soil.
  1st in the world in the export of sunflower and sunflower oil.
  2nd in the world in barley production.
  3rd in the world in corn production.  Etc. etc. etc.

  In industry Ukraine ranks:

  1st in Europe in ammonia production.
  3rd in Europe in nuclear power plants.
  3rd in Europe in railway network length.
  3rd in the world in the exportation of iron.
  4th in the world largest natural gas pipeline system.
  4th in the world in exporting nuclear power plant turbines.
  4th in the world in manufacturing rocket launchers.  Etc. etc. etc.

  So as you can see, the Ukraine has much that Russia would like to have access to.  What I think pissed Putin off the most was when the Ukrainians kicked out their pro-Russian president and decided to tie themselves economically with the West.

Ukraine provides half of the words supply for Neon.
Neon is crucial for producing semiconductors.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

This has been a clusterfuck for Russia.

!) They clearly overestimated the combat power of their own units, while clearly underestimating the combat value of Ukrainian forces. This speaks to a basic failure of intelligence. Sun Tzu wrote something about knowing your enemy and knowing yourself.

2) The Russians have not only suffered on the battlefield, but are now and will continue to suffer politically and economically as well. Putin misjudged the international response.

3) The Russians have squandered any diplomatic trust they may have built up as well. No one trusts an aggressor nation.

4) The Russians have dialed back their war-aims from a quick seizure of Kyiv and installing a puppet-government, to refocusing on the Donbas, which they haven't captured after eight years anyway. The offensive has lost momentum, and they're regrouping with a smaller mission in mind.

5) They've lost the information war.

6) Probably the worst thing for them, they've stuck their nose in the trap, and now must either retreat -- delivering a black eye to Putin -- or keep pressing on into what will likely become an insurgency they cannot afford and will not win, which also delivers a black eye to Putin.

7) Their economy is going to be in the shitter for quite some time to come, which might also bite Putin in the ass, unless he undertakes more repressive measures ... which may only set the Russian people against him more.

There are a number of things about this invasion that baffle me, mainly doctrinal. Why didn't they seize control of the air the first day? They have the air force to do it. Why are they sending armor into urban areas without an infantry screen to safeguard the tanks? What has happened to their Army's institutional knowledge such that they're ignoring logistical issues?

Further afield of these military concerns, Putin's Russia has 1) failed in its military objectives 2) failed in its political objectives (NATO being closer rather than split), and 3) perhaps irritated China.

I think Putin's overplayed his hand, and that this will begin the unraveling of his regime. The only potential use Russia will get from this is that Ukraine has offered no NATO membership, but i that worth the cost in lives, prestige, and perhaps becoming reliant on China for its own strength?

All in all, this is without a doubt Putin's greatest blunder.

I hope the Ukrainians can stave off the attack and that in some way peace comes again to them and their land.

It’s been argued - with some justification, I think - that Putin’s best hope at this point is a negotiated settlement. But, by changing his victory conditions, he’s badly damaged his bargaining position. Any ‘victory’ he’s able to propagandize out of this mess is going to be a victory on Ukraine’s terms, not Russia’s.

Boru