Why Trump will win in 2024.

[Jehanne]

The Republican Party is not monolithic.  Consider the Log Cabin Republicans versus the Religious Right.

The log cabin republicans are the party that constantly gets rejected by the rest of the republican party.  They get booed, rejected from conventions, their talking points ignored and homophobic policies are always embraced over them.  Seems like every couple of months I read another story about the log cabin republicans saying they can't support such-and-such popular republican politician or that their leaders are supporting the democratic candidate.  

Yeah, sure, some gays will still support republicans.  Uncle Ruckus supported the confederacy, too.  Doesn't change the fact that the mainstream branch of the party harshly rejects them.

The Republican Party is not all about evangelical Christianity; this is, of course, a truism. I apologize for stating the obvious, but, it needs to be stated. Religious conservatives are loud and obnoxious, and the RINOs put up with them because they will, largely, vote en bloc. Ronald Reagan catered to them, and once in office, ditched them like a cheap political hooker.

[TaraJo]

The log cabin republicans are the party that constantly gets rejected by the rest of the republican party.  They get booed, rejected from conventions, their talking points ignored and homophobic policies are always embraced over them.  Seems like every couple of months I read another story about the log cabin republicans saying they can't support such-and-such popular republican politician or that their leaders are supporting the democratic candidate.  

Yeah, sure, some gays will still support republicans.  Uncle Ruckus supported the confederacy, too.  Doesn't change the fact that the mainstream branch of the party harshly rejects them.

The Republican Party is not all about evangelical Christianity; this is, of course, a truism.  I apologize for stating the obvious, but, it needs to be stated.  Religious conservatives are loud and obnoxious, and the RINOs put up with them because they will, largely, vote en bloc.  Ronald Reagan catered to them, and once in office, ditched them like a cheap political hooker.

I don't remember a single time in the last 30 years that the republican party hasn't voted en bloc with the religious right.  

For as long as I can remember, the christian conservatives have stood for two things: anti-LGBT rights and anti-abortion.  There are a few fringe issues, most of which are local or side-burner issues, things like creationism in schools or posting the ten commandments on courthouses.  But those two are the big ones.  The closest I've seen to a republican acting against those interests was on August 9, 2001 when George W Bush put out a bill that allowed stem cell research to continue with already existing stem cell lines but wouldn't allow new lines.  Other than that, every chance they got, it was peck away at abortion rights, piece by piece, and screw over gay people every chance you get.  

Now transgender rights are in their crosshairs.  Sure, once in a while you'll get a voice like Blaire White or Kaitlyn Jenner who speaks up for us but they're regularly ignored by the people with actual political power.  Mitch McConnell, Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz, Greg Abbott, Donald Trump.... none of them has ever taken a stance on a transgender rights issue that wasn't specifically hostile to trans people.  Ditto for race issues and hostility to black people.  They talk like religious freedom is important to them, but every time they have the opportunity to screw over Muslim people, they're on board for it.


Reagan and Trump didn't pay lip service to the religious reich, but they certainly governed on their behalf.  Appointing justices like Amy Coney Barret or Antonin Scalia, refusing to provide funding to AIDS research or allow transgender people in the military and, yeah, it certainly seems like they obeyed their masters on the pulpit.  See, they don't care if you're a serial adulterer conman, and they don't care if you use their talking points in speeches or rallies or press briefings, the conservative christians will put up with any crazy thing you do as long as you govern the way they want.  You could snort cocain off a satan-worshipping, gay, male, prostitutes dick and they'd still support you as long as you make it harder to get an abortion.

Yeah, I guess you could say they don't give unwavering support to the religious right, as long as you ignore how they actually govern.

[brewer]

Isn't it about time that one dies in office?

[Jehanne]

@TaraJo

The recently passed Respect for Marriage Act is proof that the Republican Party is changing. Look for a nationwide codification of Roe v. Wade just after the new Congress is sworn and seated.

[Mister Agenda]

I hope so.

[Jehanne]

I hope so.

My view of history is that a Society's intellectuals will have their viewpoints adopted by most people, eventually, even if those viewpoints change radically over time.

[The Grand Nudger]

@TaraJo

The recently passed Respect for Marriage Act is proof that the Republican Party is changing.  Look for a nationwide codification of Roe v. Wade just after the new Congress is sworn and seated.

On the basis of a whopping 12 legislators who are retiring, personally invested, or running in purple districts?  There's been more change in the dem party on this one than the republican party - which has defined itself exclusively through the rejection of whatever changes happen in the dem party.

Sure, the republicans are changing, but they're not becoming more progressive...on anything.  It's a free fall to full on christian fascism at present. It'd be nice if they gave a shit about things like fiscal responsibility or american eminance - hell..then they wouldn't even need to be judged by whether or not they were less garbage today than they were yesterday - to their shame either way.

On the broader point...OFC the republican party doesn't give a fuck about some christ. Christofascists are just a tool for anti-majoritarian control of a captured state apparatus. Ask them, they'll tell you, they got used up like a garden hoe and tossed when they couldn't cut weeds anymore - same fate as any other tool. -and by god they'll vote for the same guys again!

[Jehanne]

Getting 51% of the vote means getting 100% of the power. If 70% of the Republican Party remains loopy for the next generation, so what?? As long as they are losing elections, they and their views will remain in terminal decline.

[The Grand Nudger]

It simply doesn't paint a picture of a party changing in the implied manner, is all. We already know they can do this (remain loopy) even in the face of terminal decline, sure. That's the actual truth that the existential fears of demographic replacement are spun from. The party made itself so toxic that the only people it could credibly appeal to were toxic, and in decline, themselves.

[TaraJo]

@TaraJo

The recently passed Respect for Marriage Act is proof that the Republican Party is changing. Look for a nationwide codification of Roe v. Wade just after the new Congress is sworn and seated.

They voted for that only after losing a midterm, losing a presidential election and vastly underperformed in another midterm. And because voting against interracial marriage would hurt them even more, especially since they’re developing a bad reputation on racial issues. And because they sacrificed a tremendous amount of political capital overturning Roe v Wade. Overturn same sex marriage right after overturning abortion rights and republicans might inspire the democrats to keep them from having any political power for the next 50 years