Nato, Sweden, Vilnius, Ukraine etc.

[The Valkyrie]

Ukraine isn’t in the North Atlantic either. Not being part of the North Atlantic isn’t a reason for anyone to be ignored. Not Oz, not Ukraine…and not turkey.

Turkeys main fuckup was believing Russian ad copy about Russian weapons. Whole lot of buyers remorse in the world right now. Poor China, they stole a bunch of Russian tech to invade Taiwan with…..gonna have to put that off for a bit.

No, but Ukraine does border member states of NATO.

Japan, Oz, NZ all have several oceans bewtween us and the closest NATO nation.

[Thumpalumpacus]

So let's discuss the Vilnius Nato Summit. Not as good as it could have been imo, but at least they removed the MAP requirement, which reduces one step for Ukraine. Ukraines future is in NATO, of that there should be no doubt. If Finland and Sweden can join, why can't Ukraine? Of course, the War has to finish first, but immediately after, Ukraine should accede to the Alliance.

Thoughts from folks here? And my expectations/guesses:

(1) Sweden becomes Nato member 32 by this year 2023 end.

(2) there's a good chance the Ukraine War ends by 2024 end at least, given Russias already lost some 230,000 troops at last count, and thus in another 1.5 years or so would be expected to lose around 500,000 in total; way, way more than they lost in Afghanistan in 10 years, and arguably unsustainable. So I expect the war will end by 2024 with Ukraine joining Nato by year end (3) then Nato should expand Eastward, I.e. in Asia, welcoming Asian Countries like Japan, South Korea, and India, and Oceanic like Australia and New Zealand in time. There are signs of this happening already, but Leftist Liberal and Commie-appeaser Macron is stopping it to please the CCP: Natos planned new office in Japan for e.g. Anyway, Raeganite Peace through Strength works and can stop the War and the CCP also.

Thoughts?

From Al Jazeera: "The communique also touched on the Asia Pacific, with the leaders of Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea all attending as NATO allies.

It said China was a challenge to NATO’s interests, security and values with its “ambitions and coercive policies” triggering a furious response from Beijing.

And it accused Beijing and Moscow of “mutually reinforcing attempts to undercut the rules-based international order”. China has said it wants peace in Ukraine, but has not condemned Russia’s full scale invasion since it began in February 2022."

i think Ukraine will win this war, and once it's over will be welcomed into NATO. I don't think NATO has any business driving eastward into the Asian landmass.

I do think we Americans should be solid allies to the Japanese, SoKor, and Taiwanese, as well as other Asian nations. I think NATO's purview should remain and be restricted to Europe, simply because the wider the net that is cast the more likely is it that dissension would hamstring any response by the alliance.

For dealing with issues in Asia, I like the idea of AUKUS, though I think we should aim to bring India, Japan, and the Philippines into that umbrella. But let's face it, most NATO nations simply cannot project power into East Asia in any meaningful level.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Sweden, Finland, and Ukraine need to be accepted ASAP to show Russia a united front in light of their aggression and war crimes in Ukraine/Crimea.

Finland was accepted in April, and Sweden's accession was greenlighted the other day after negotiation. Ukraine can't join until this war is over due to NATO's charter forbidding a new member being accepted while at war.

At the same time they need to look at censuring Turkey, possibly with the goal of removing them from the Alliance.

There's no censure or expulsion clause in the NATO charter. I'd loe to see Turkey told off, but there's no means by which to actually do that.

NATO is North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and, as such, all other mentioned nations are outside their primary area of interest.

We have our own alliances which, while needing strengthening, will suffice.

Precisely. 30 of NATO's 32 countries are in Europe (at least in part). That is where their focus belongs, and where they may do the greatest good.

[Thumpalumpacus]

If I were NATO then I'd put obstacles in the way of Ukraine joining.  A NATO country on the border of Russia is a flashpoint and Putin can't keep it in his pants.

If that was the real issue, Russia would've invaded the Baltic states and the war's over in five days. They're NATO members, after all.

Of course, they don't have the coal, rare metals, uranium, and prestige as Target Ukraine.

I think NATO should greet Ukraine once they win this war. Russia cannot beat Ukraine alone, as we're seeing here. They're sure not gonna get punchy once Ukraine has Article 5 in its pocket.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

If I were NATO then I'd put obstacles in the way of Ukraine joining.  A NATO country on the border of Russia is a flashpoint and Putin can't keep it in his pants.

If that was the real issue, Russia would've invaded the Baltic states and the war's over in five days. They're NATO members, after all.

Of course, they don't have the coal, rare metals, uranium, and prestige as Target Ukraine.

I think NATO should greet Ukraine once they win this war. Russia cannot beat Ukraine alone, as we're seeing here. They're sure not gonna get punchy once Ukraine has Article 5 in its pocket.

With the pending ascension of Sweden, Russia is now the only non-NATO country with a border on the Baltic Sea. While this probably doesn't affect things in any material way, I think it's going to have a huge impact on the Russian psyche.

Boru

[Deesse23]

If I were NATO then I'd put obstacles in the way of Ukraine joining.  A NATO country on the border of Russia is a flashpoint and Putin can't keep it in his pants.

Finland 
3 baltic states

Nothing will happen if ANOTHER NATO member has a border with Russia. Its all posturing.
He knows his days of creating a "greater Russia" are counted once the last remaining potential target (Ukraine) is removed from his bucket list. He knows exactly that what he will get (or not) from Ukraine is the last land grab, and last installment of puppet regimes he will ever have.
Regimes like the current one in Russia exist for one reason only: fear

[Angrboda]

If I were NATO then I'd put obstacles in the way of Ukraine joining.  A NATO country on the border of Russia is a flashpoint and Putin can't keep it in his pants.

If that was the real issue, Russia would've invaded the Baltic states and the war's over in five days. They're NATO members, after all.

Of course, they don't have the coal, rare metals, uranium, and prestige as Target Ukraine.

I think NATO should greet Ukraine once they win this war. Russia cannot beat Ukraine alone, as we're seeing here. They're sure not gonna get punchy once Ukraine has Article 5 in its pocket.

All it would take is one miscalculation and the world is at war. Putin's little green men was supposed to be covert back in 2014. You don't think he'd do it again?

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

If that was the real issue, Russia would've invaded the Baltic states and the war's over in five days. They're NATO members, after all.

Of course, they don't have the coal, rare metals, uranium, and prestige as Target Ukraine.

I think NATO should greet Ukraine once they win this war. Russia cannot beat Ukraine alone, as we're seeing here. They're sure not gonna get punchy once Ukraine has Article 5 in its pocket.

All it would take is one miscalculation and the world is at war.  Putin's little green men was supposed to be covert back in 2014.  You don't think he'd do it again?

After this debacle in Ukraine, no, I don’t think Putin would try again. He never imagined the West would support Ukraine to the extent it has, and he knows Russia hasn’t got a hope in hell of defeating NATO.

Boru

[Thumpalumpacus]

All it would take is one miscalculation and the world is at war.  Putin's little green men was supposed to be covert back in 2014.  You don't think he'd do it again?

Not when the target nation could invoke Article 5, no, I don't think so.

[Nishant Xavier]

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i think Ukraine will win this war, and once it's over will be welcomed into NATO. I don't think NATO has any business driving eastward into the Asian landmass.

I do think we Americans should be solid allies to the Japanese, SoKor, and Taiwanese, as well as other Asian nations. I think NATO's purview should remain and be restricted to Europe, simply because the wider the net that is cast the more likely is it that dissension would hamstring any response by the alliance.

For dealing with issues in Asia, I like the idea of AUKUS, though I think we should aim to bring India, Japan, and the Philippines into that umbrella. But let's face it, most NATO nations simply cannot project power into East Asia in any meaningful level.

---

Ok, let's get back to this. I have to say, while I firmly support Ukraine in its right to self-defense, which it has done heroically, and might have ended up saving large swathes of Europe, Eastern Europe especially, from an invasion (Medvedev has threatened Poland and other countries), I completely disagree with this false Euro-centric perspective, that NATO should not expand into Asia. If it doesn't, it doesn't deserve to win.

Not only in Asia first, but then in the entire Global South, including Oceania, Latin America and Africa. The goal should be to unite all Democratic Countries that respect Human Rights against all Autocratic countries that do not, in order to put pressure on the latter to finally do the same.

It's good to see Stoltenberg seems to get this, since he said: "Underscoring that "security is not regional but global," Mr Stoltenberg thanked the Prime Minister for Japan's strong support to Ukraine." https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_217062.htm

Here's what happened in the Rwandan Genocide, some 1 MN people died, and nearly 500,000 women were raped. NATO stood by and largely did nothing. Pathetic. This is what needs to change. I'm all for supporting Ukraine, yet it is nothing but Racism to deny that same help to say Rwanda.

"Sexual violence was rife, with an estimated 250,000 to 500,000 women raped during the genocide ... the Constitution of Rwanda states that more than 1 million people perished in the genocide" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_genocide They're still trying to minimize it over at Wiki.

Even Boris Johnson called the Global South the "Swing States" of this issue: the West knows it needs Global Support, and right now probably the majority of the world's population do not support it. For that to change, NATO should stop discriminating based on race, and welcome and reach out to Asian Countries first, like Japan, South Korea and India. Otherwise, it is hypocritical to expect Asia to help, if NATO won't also help Asia.

And the same not only for Asia, but anywhere else in the world, including Africa, Latin America and Australia. Some good steps are being made in that direction, like Stoltenberg's outreach to Japan that I quoted. As I said, Commie bootlickers like Macron, to appease the CCP, are opposing it.