US Strikes on Iran (Operation Epic Fury)

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

Iran cannot go on with this war for more than a month or two. As I said before, if they cannot export their oil, they will have to shut down their oil wells. Once they are shut down, these are complicated to put back into operation.
 
The only problem we have is that few people are trusting the current administration in Washington. I’m seeing military experts on TV who are saying that D. Trump might just leave tomorrow morning and let the Europeans and Gulf countries correct all the misdeeds he has done.

The complexity of re-starting an oil well depends heavily on how and why it was shut down and can be anywhere from a day to more than a year. Iran also has a lot of refineries and about 90 million barrels of storage capacity.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Trump walked away and let others clean up his mess.

Boru

[The Grand Nudger]

Iran cannot go on with this war for more than a month or two. 

People said the same thing about ukraine four years ago.  In mere reality, as in ukraine, iran can go on with this war indefinitely.  All they have to do is continue to exist until the other guy fucks off back home.

The us has built a concerning track record for this sort of thing the last 70 years. We win battles swiftly and convincingly, we may even win every battle..but still lose the war. If you want regime change in 30 days we can do it - and there was a shot at that in iran too...but once it's gone on much longer the odds get lower and lower regardless of our technical or tactical prowess.

[Jackalope]

Yeah I think we can come back in a month or two and Iran will still exist and will still resist even if the Mad King reduces Tehran to glass. There is, IMO nothing the United States is willing to offer Iran that Iran would accept. What Iran wants, this administration will not give, and what the administration wants, Iran will not give.

I would be thrilled to be wrong.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

Yeah I think we can come back in a month or two and Iran will still exist and will still resist even if the Mad King reduces Tehran to glass.  There is, IMO nothing the United States is willing to offer Iran that Iran would accept.  What Iran wants, this administration will not give, and what the administration wants, Iran will not give.

I would be thrilled to be wrong.

(Bold mine)

This is the result of a lunatic negotiating with fanatics. The notion of compromise does not exist in their world.

Boru

[Leonardo17]

The Grand Nudger:
 
I’m currently listening to Al Gore’s 2007 book called “The Assault on reason”.
 
Through this book I am discovering that none of this is new. G.W. Bush also hated international law and international organization. He also opposed free healthcare and free public education. He also believed in enriching the rich while doing nothing to support lower and middle classes. He also invented a war in a manner that is based on lies. Ex: Saddam had nothing to do with 9/11, but he told his team that he wanted Saddam to have something to do with 9/11. He also disliked the US constitution and republican value (just like Trump) and wanted to increase traditional (white American) values while decreasing progressive evolution like abortion rights for women etc. And in this 2007 book, it’s almost like Al Gore is talking about D. Trump (while he is actually talking about G.W. Bush).
 
 
Also:
 
Iranians are crossing into Turkey to buy their groceries. Their money is so worthless that they cannot even afford sunflower oil anymore (really).
 
Jackalope:
 
… and commentators are estimating that China cannot do anything about this either. While the two are close economic partners (with China buying almost all of the Iranian oil) Beijing doesn’t seem to have that kind of leverage as to tell Iranians what to do or what not to do.

[Jackalope]

I don't believe China believes interfering is in their own interest. They're positioned to be the eminent world power, the United States is destroying it's own hegemony. Why interrupt your rival when they're making a mistake?

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

I don't believe China believes interfering is in their own interest.  They're positioned to be the eminent world power, the United States is destroying it's own hegemony.  Why interrupt your rival when they're making a mistake?

Xi, unlike Trump, understands that patience has strategic value.

Boru

[Jackalope]

I don't believe China believes interfering is in their own interest.  They're positioned to be the eminent world power, the United States is destroying it's own hegemony.  Why interrupt your rival when they're making a mistake?

Xi, unlike Trump, understands that patience has strategic value.

Boru

Xi understands things. That's the difference.

[Leonardo17]

China, (unlike the G.W. Bush + first and second D. Trump administration) understands the strategic value of diversifying its energy resources. The Oil market is actually anything but “unregulated and free” when you are in this game you are subjected to all sort of energy prices fluctuation + you have oil tankers coming to your country returning completely empty after you have made payments to whatever country that oil is coming from, without even bothering to buy anything from you.
 
So some countries like France have responded to this reality by investing very heavily into Nuclear energy (since the 1950’s actually). Other countries like China are 1) diversifying their energy imports and 2) (India does that a lot as well) are gradually turning to renewable and are taking revolutionary steps like electrifying public transportation and even their entire lorry fleet. Germany has even plans to install solar energy plants in equatorial Africa, turning that energy into green Hydrogen and using that energy for things like sea transportation or steel industries back home.
 
/So this happens almost everywhere in this world so we can speak freely: In some cases private interest can become more important than the interest of a nation as a whole. Sometimes people can make truly bad choices for themselves and their country as a whole. But democracies are still more resilient than tyrannies. When a tyranny become weak, the whole thing goes down. The US on the other hand has survived one term of Mr. D. Trump. I’m pretty confident it will survive the second

[The Grand Nudger]

We didn't survive the first term.