(April 25, 2019 at 1:55 am)Guard of Guardians Wrote:

(April 24, 2019 at 9:29 am)Mister Agenda Wrote: Other links have shown that disbelief in God is at a high, that would seem to corroborate that the trend isn't solely due to different ways of counting membership; though that is almost certainly a factor in the decline of church membership; we are also seeing lower attendance. IMHO, mega-churches aren't a sign of growth, they're a sign of smaller churches having more trouble paying their bills and being forced to consolidate.

I've seen some of those over the last several years myself, though I can't say that I'm the most familiar with this topic. The problem with the various surveys is that they are a bit amorphous when it comes to specifics. For examples, on survey results, you really don't want to trust the veracity of any survey unless your response rate is 85% or higher. Anything lower than that tends to reduce the accuracy fairly dramatically. And regarding religious affiliations, there has been an increasing tendency within the Church and in American society at large to avoid or be less inclined to identify with particular sects. This has the effect of sometimes, though it's not clear how much, seeing people declaring themselves as having no religious affiliations, by which they often mean that they are non-denominational rather than non-Christian. And the point that I'm making is that these results are often not as meaningful as first thought. Having said that, I don't necessarily disagree that the overall trend might be down. I think that is perfectly possible. I just don't have a very high level of confidence, given some of the things I've mentioned above.

That's why surveys include a confidence estimate.

I remember an aerial survey done in the '80s of San Diego County shopping mall parking lots and church parking lots. Both done on Sunday morning, photos taken at one hour intervals starting at 6 AM* until noon. The mall lots had ~ 80% more cars than the churches for each hour after the malls opened at 9 AM.

The local godbotherers were furious.


*To get those cars parked overnight.

(April 25, 2019 at 1:55 am)Guard of Guardians Wrote: For examples, on survey results, you really don't want to trust the veracity of any survey unless your response rate is 85% or higher.  Anything lower than that tends to reduce the accuracy fairly dramatically. 

Citation needed.

(April 26, 2019 at 8:59 am)Jörmungandr Wrote:

(April 25, 2019 at 1:55 am)Guard of Guardians Wrote: For examples, on survey results, you really don't want to trust the veracity of any survey unless your response rate is 85% or higher.  Anything lower than that tends to reduce the accuracy fairly dramatically. 

Citation needed.

Question is, "Can polls predict future events better than chance?"  Is weather forecasting useful?  No one claims that polls/surveys are perfect, only that they are better than guessing.

(April 26, 2019 at 9:35 am)Jehanne Wrote:

(April 26, 2019 at 8:59 am)Jörmungandr Wrote: Citation needed.

Question is, "Can polls predict future events better than chance?"  Is weather forecasting useful?  No one claims that polls/surveys are perfect, only that they are better than guessing.

The answer is yes

---

And right GG  Gallups a group that's been doing polling for freaking every would publish a low end study and would have no clue about this 85% hogwash your spewing . Do I hear tin foil crinkling .

---

(April 26, 2019 at 8:59 am)Jörmungandr Wrote:

(April 25, 2019 at 1:55 am)Guard of Guardians Wrote: For examples, on survey results, you really don't want to trust the veracity of any survey unless your response rate is 85% or higher.  Anything lower than that tends to reduce the accuracy fairly dramatically. 

Citation needed.

From institute of Dunning Kruger .

(April 22, 2019 at 8:39 am)Jehanne Wrote: U.S. Church Membership Down Sharply in Past Two Decades

did we already shoot this notion down?

not only that there was a huge up tick in church attendance 2nd 1/2 of 2001 this poll does not show.

The idea being "Christian" is a very dated term and the further along or more advanced you belief becomes one understands he is not in a position to judge himself 'christian.' as that judgement is reserved for Christ after this life is complete.

Rather most take on the name follower of Christ..

That said, the bible does predict a decline in belief in the last generation before the 2nd coming. so even if you poll is right, what is it you think you win? the right to see the end come?

Because once the last person who could be saved is saved, there is no reason for God to allow this world to continue on.

(May 1, 2019 at 12:35 pm)Drich Wrote: That said, the bible does predict a decline in belief in the last generation before the 2nd coming. so even if you poll is right, what is it you think you win? the right to see the end come?

Because once the last person who could be saved is saved, there is no reason for God to allow this world to continue on.

Jesus is the World's biggest no-show; he is never, ever coming back, because, he is dead.

(May 1, 2019 at 9:49 pm)Jehanne Wrote:

(May 1, 2019 at 12:35 pm)Drich Wrote: That said, the bible does predict a decline in belief in the last generation before the 2nd coming. so even if you poll is right, what is it you think you win? the right to see the end come?

Because once the last person who could be saved is saved, there is no reason for God to allow this world to continue on.

Jesus is the World's biggest no-show; he is never, ever coming back, because, he is dead.

  No show to whom?

I got dragged in front of him.. (i'm not the only one.)

You mean for you... meaning you think you are the standard of the universe. IE if God does not pull out all the stops in heaven and earth to bow before you, there can be no God???

What if snow flake, you are one of a kind? what if God does not own you a personal magic show  till you make the same effort everyone else is commanded to make?

(May 6, 2019 at 10:33 am)Drich Wrote:

(May 1, 2019 at 9:49 pm)Jehanne Wrote: Jesus is the World's biggest no-show; he is never, ever coming back, because, he is dead.

  No show to whom?

I got dragged in front of him.. (i'm not the only one.)

You mean for you... meaning you think you are the standard of the universe. IE if God does not pull out all the stops in heaven and earth to bow before you, there can be no God???

What if snow flake, you are one of a kind? what if God does not own you a personal magic show  till you make the same effort everyone else is commanded to make?

"Commanded" well that fucker can fuck right off.

(May 6, 2019 at 11:37 am)downbeatplumb Wrote:

(May 6, 2019 at 10:33 am)Drich Wrote:   No show to whom?

I got dragged in front of him.. (i'm not the only one.)

You mean for you... meaning you think you are the standard of the universe. IE if God does not pull out all the stops in heaven and earth to bow before you, there can be no God???

What if snow flake, you are one of a kind? what if God does not own you a personal magic show  till you make the same effort everyone else is commanded to make?

"Commanded" well that fucker can fuck right off.

yes commanded, what did you think, God was just offering suggestions? 

Your idea of god: Umm excuse me guys, umm if it's not too much trouble,, i set this whole deal u where you can go to heaven if you just maybe pay my some attention and listen up if it is not too much trouble.

God is closer to this: Look you little 1/2 monkey bastards I sent my son and gave him to you and you kicked his ass and killed him on a f-ing tree. So if the rest of you monkey mother having A-holes don't want to be treated like the actual guys who killed my son you will honor his name and what He did for the rest of you by following what he taught. other wise face the father like you had a hand in killing the son..

So command yeah? get it now?