(November 4, 2022 at 1:52 pm)The Grand Nudger Wrote: That's what they are.  That's what they've been (poorly) equipped for.  The ukranian tdf is much the same, for different reasons.  The tdf rallies for the ukranian callups because they've been given the tools of success and they've used them to great effect, because they aren't expected to simply die hiding in a "fortified" position and losing their very expensive gear in the process.  The russians, for their part, know that the important troops were already shredded and they expect exactly what they've been called up to be used for.  Thing is, even if it weren't true, which it is, troops would still feel that way and communicate with each other that way.  There are no fantasists on a firing line.  Even the most uneducated groundpounders...i think...would surprise people with their insight, in that event, if "people"..rather than joes, were ever there to hear it.  When you have orders that end in your death you get a rare sort of clarity. You'll still do it, you wouldn't still be there if you wouldn't, but you know what you're doing...at that point.

The best any of 'em can hope for is to survive to be cadre for the next tranche of draftees (and they're coming up soon, it's draft season again) ... only to be sent right back into the meat-grinder. I'm sure they know for a fact that they are only eggs to be thrown at the brick wall. Scuttlebutt doesn't often traffic in bullshit, because believing the wrong shit is fatal.

(November 4, 2022 at 2:54 pm)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  But you know as well as I do what that means -- those airborne troops are now relying upon green troops on the other side of the river to secure their flanks and supply lines to Sevastopol.

A losers bet, in my experience....and my experience comes from a much more competent force.......

Still, it's the right play (and that should be concerning). Move your forces behind a natural barrier and blast the shit out of anything that breaths on the other side at long range. Neither ukraine nor russia -needs- to hold kherson, the city itself. It's much more usefel to either party as a cauldron.

(November 4, 2022 at 2:59 pm)Leonardo17 Wrote:

(November 4, 2022 at 2:54 pm)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: I've seen some of the video, it's horrific. Meanwhile, ISW reports that those Russian lives were thrown away because they couldn't or wouldn't wait to assemble a force capable of executing the mission, instead throwing their troops away in penny-packets, as the Brits say.

Also meanwhile, the Russians are evacuating Kherson and the west bank of the Dneipr River, the the exception of defensive positions NW of that city. It looks to me like they finally grew a couple of neurons and realized you need good troops to mount an effective rearguard -- they have moved airborne troops into those defensive spots. But you know as well as I do what that means -- those airborne troops are now relying upon green troops on the other side of the river to secure their flanks and supply lines to Sevastopol.

I suspect it's only a matter of time before the Ukrainians launch a thrust to Kerch and well and truly fuck the southern Russian front.

I’ve heard that Ukrainian Generals are still not underestimating them. The whole thing might be a trap. And Russians still have an advantage of numbers and artillery. Ukraine is therefore asking for more modern artillery and better air defense systems.
 
Also the toll on civilians is beginning to be felt. So although everyone wants to see an end to this conflict as soon as possible. It’s still a relatively strong army they are facing.

Forewarned is forearmed, and I think the Russians may yet regret having stuck some of their (relatively) better troops into what is essentially a no-win situation. After seeing eight months of their offensive actions going kaput, I'm not sure at all that they can manage a respectable rearguard and retreat under fire -- especially when their rear is covered by second-rate troops. The branch may well be sawed off before the forward force makes it back to the trunk to climb down safely.

Ukraine cant throw away lives away like russia can. It'll work...for whatever that's worth.

What air defense doing, idk, but ukraine plans to party on the crimean beaches in 2023, Zelensky included.

(November 4, 2022 at 4:16 pm)The Grand Nudger Wrote: Still, it's the right play (and that should be concerning).  Move your forces behind a natural barrier and blast the shit out of anything that breaths on the other side at long range.   Neither ukraine nor russia -needs- to hold kherson, the city itself.  It's much more usefel to either party as a cauldron.

Right, but they need to be unassing faster if they don't want their sides crumpled.

The advantage to Ukrainians of recapturing Kherson provides is that it gives Odessa a little more breathing room from missile attacks. This is Russia seeing that strangling Ukraine's economy might be harder than they thought.

Quote:I’ve heard that Ukrainian Generals are still not underestimating them. The whole thing might be a trap. And Russians still have an advantage of numbers and artillery. Ukraine is therefore asking for more modern artillery and better air defense systems.
 
Also the toll on civilians is beginning to be felt. So although everyone wants to see an end to this conflict as soon as possible. It’s still a relatively strong army they are facing.

Artillery is worthless if it has no shells and 10,000 men with no will to fight and no means to fight effectively will fall to a much smaller force who do.

I am not sure if they are short of shells for artillery. And they still have air superiority + a limited number of remaining ballistic missiles. So it’s no easy war for the Ukrainians and experts are talking of weeks before the Ukrainians will be able to take Kherson.
And everything will be a great challenge for civilians as well. It’s no easy task for any Ukrainian.
And the Russian way of war (that they have used in Afghanistan, Chechenia and Syria), is to destroy everything with their artillery first to break the resolve of the opponent and then seize the rubble that is left. (They have a most cruel way of waging war too, and that since the imperial period).
As Zelensky puts it, they need air defense systems (perhaps even from Israel). And better long range artillery like the HIMARS systems. Because I don’t think it’s about winning the war anymore. I think the world should look for ways to shorten the challenge that is faced by the Ukrainian population as a whole.

Boru

US officials are now telling Ukraine they ought to negotiate with the Russians, according to the Washington Post.

If this is true, it's a major change, and possibly a good one.

On the other hand, it could be a PR move to pretend that US/NATO/Ukraine are the ones open to talks, simply in order to make Russia look bad.

Quote:US officials are now telling Ukraine they ought to negotiate with the Russians, according to the Washington Post.

From the Yahoo news version of the article 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-private...57150.html

Quote:The paper quoted unnamed people familiar with the discussions as saying that the request by American officials was not aimed at pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table, but a calculated attempt to ensure Kyiv maintains the support of other nations facing constituencies wary of fueling a war for many years to come.

So some unnamed person's opinion who at best simply wants to keep the support for Ukraine coming. Hardly how you're trying to twist it.

Quote:If this is true, it's a major change, and possibly a good one.

No, it's not a major change if the only reason it's being done is to keep Ukraine's support going and there is no peace deal other than total Russian withdrawal and guarantees they will never be able to do this again. Neither of these is likely so no this isn't good.

Quote:On the other hand, it could be a PR move to pretend that US/NATO/Ukraine are the ones open to talks, simply in order to make Russia look bad.

There is no way Russia can look any worst.