(February 28, 2023 at 6:58 am)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: Looks to me like Bakhmut will be lost:

Quote:DONETSK PROVINCE, Ukraine, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Russia forces on Tuesday stepped up their weeks-long drive to encircle the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut where the commander of Ukraine's ground forces described the situation as "extremely tense".

Russian forces, including mercenary fighters from the Wagner Group, are trying to cut the Ukrainian defenders' supply lines to the city, scene of some of the war's bloodiest battles, and force them to surrender or withdraw.

That would give Russia its first major prize in more than half a year and open the way to the capture of the last remaining urban centres in the Donetsk region, which Moscow claims to have annexed along with three other Ukrainian regions.

"Despite significant losses, the enemy threw in the most prepared assault units of Wagner, who are trying to break through the defences of our troops and surround the city," Ukraine's Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi was quoted as saying on a military messaging platform.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/rus...023-02-28/

It never had any strategic value, or general military value at all. The only value it had was the one assigned by Russia itself to be singled out as a focus point for massive attacks. not much to win but much to lose.
If the Ukrainian front does not collapse due to this, this will be no more than a phyrric victory if what is reported about the effort and losses involved is only remotely true.

A couple more of victories like this and Russias offensive capabilities are maybe done for.

Yeah, if or when it's no longer tenable to hold bakhmut they'll just do it all over again in the next pile of rubble where a city once stood..and, at the rate that russia is making gains, it'll be what, a mile from bakhmut by this years end? There's no shortage of ruined towns in ukraine..for some reason or another having nothing to do with russia, I'm sure.

The value of bakhmut to russia was that it's the only place where they can easily support an offensive (apparently). That won't be true once they move out from bakhmut, should they take it - and whatever troops russia has held up in the defence will be free, when bakhmut is no longer held, to do the very thing that russia hopes to prevent by sending endless waves of human chattel forward to their death. The value to ukraine was in kettling the invaders in a place that was already no mans land, instead of some city that still has life. The story shits the bed. Bakhmut isn't any kind of prize. It's a killing field. Russia is trying to take control of a mass grave filled with russians and there's nothing else about the town that's noteworthy or newsworthy. There are petty ambitions to be mocked. Those sweet, sweet salt mines in bakhmut and soledar that Prigozhen very clearly wants - but that's grift with a small g - those mines will never produce enough value to offset the cost of russian losses..and before you go thinking that I'm suggesting the russian admin gives a shit about it's people..no, stop it. I'm talking loss to equipment and economy, lol. You;d have to mine alot of fucking salt to cover the expense of this war...though, I suppose they're trying their damnedest in the collective tears of ukranians and russians alike. Just imagine, if they'd found a way to harvest all the rashists crying in their cups about no empire no longer, they'd never have had to go to salt war in the first place! Anthony, this potato needs more salt, go get me salt. The real reason putin launched his invasion. We don't make our best decisions while hangry.

Oh but that won't stop the Russia simps from victory or the "anti-war " defeatists from whinging as if this is any real victory for Russia. In the end, this is just Russia losing slower.

Getting suckered into a cauldron isn't losing slower, even, it's definitely accelerating your defeat and this can be counted in wasted men, material..and time.

I'm just hoping the Ukrainians withdraw those stout troops before the possible encirclement snaps shut. You don't want to lose fighters like that. Pull them back. Rest, refit, and retrain them, in that order.

Ukraine likely has a plan for that, and russian troops thusfar have shown themselves incapable of such a manouver - but lightning may strike. Murphys laws, and what plans actually are. Just like they might lob a nuke at ukraine. That's the trouble with incompetence. It's really hard to predict.

(February 28, 2023 at 6:11 pm)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: I'm just hoping the Ukrainians withdraw those stout troops before the possible encirclement snaps shut. You don't want to lose fighters like that. Pull them back. Rest, refit, and retrain them, in that order.

Indeed Ukraine can't afford any needless casualties. They need to play as if every man counts (because they do).

(February 28, 2023 at 6:28 pm)The Grand Nudger Wrote: Ukraine likely has a plan for that, and russian troops thusfar have shown themselves incapable of such a manouver - but lightning may strike.  Murphys laws, and what plans actually are.  Just like they might lob a nuke at ukraine.  That's the trouble with incompetence.  It's really hard to predict.

True they seem to get pummeled and then repeat the same strategy that got them pummeled again.

Right, and so they take bakhmut at unnacceptable costs, and then what? Do it all over again with the next already ruined town behind it? Every time they do this, I think, it actually increases the risk that they lob a tactical nuke, because it removes any other possible action from within their realm of options.

(February 28, 2023 at 8:16 am)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: This war won't end until Putin for whatever reason decides it will end.

My prediction: The Russian Army will implode in spring and this will trigger a change in the kremlin (Or mu guess to be exact).
 
Still one thing I want everyone to understand: The Ukrainians do not want to be a part of Russia more than Hong-Kong residents wanted to be completely assimilated by China. And this isn’t only about democratic governance. It’s about identity and freedom of choice.
 
Proof:
 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-russi...32594.html