(January 19, 2024 at 11:21 am)modernite Wrote:

(January 19, 2024 at 7:30 am)Leonardo17 Wrote: Watch my previous video. Ukraine has Soviet era Su-27’s. These have almost no chance against more advanced Su-35’s etc. So if a Russian airplane is coming. They have to flee.
 
Of course they have Javelin rocket launchers + other air defense systems like the patriot missiles. But with a fleet of F-16’s + western provided missiles that go with it, they will be able to take on the Su-35’s and therefore (if I am understanding correctly) they will be able to hit more onto the Russian fortified defenses giving more chance to the Leo tanks to break through these defenses.
 
Also: I found this video of Bradley Infantry fighting vehicles destroying the Russian Armata tank (aided by a drone).

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Modernite’s comment on pan-Slavism:
 
See the recent events in the Bashkir Region:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/17...hkortostan
 
Half of Russia’s population (perhaps more) are Turkic people (not Slavs).
 
This is why Russia is not a nation-state proper but a federation.
 
That’s the only thing it can be. It’s a multi-cultural federation in which the Russian ethnic group is the main element.           
 
This pushes some people to believe that it has to turn into an empire once again. My view is that the Democratic Federation model is the most logical model in the short and longer term.

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Dugin’s assassination:
 
Every month or so someone is falling from a window, is found dead at the bottom of some stairs, has been poisoned with novatchev or something like that. That’s what happens when you have a spy for president.
 
And Historically: It reminds me of the East-Roman way of doing things. They also had these emperors found dead in the swimming pool, high officials found estranged in some places, Generals taking arms against Byzantium and then asserting themselves as the new emperor etc. (just as a note for those interested in ancient history )

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There is also the topography of Ukraine. You can resist a stronger force if you have element like hills, dense forests or jungles and marshes from which you can carry out hit and run strikes.
 
Holding and stabilizing an opponent like Russia (that has tanks and airplanes) on the open field is not (militarily speaking) such an easy task.
 
So Ukrainians must be good and so is whatever military expertise it is that is backing them.

Where are you pulling your figures that half of people are turkic, instead slavic? Out of your butt? According to a 2021 census, atleast 81% of people in Russia are ethnic russians, who are slavic.

Sorry about that. You are right:
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_in_Russia
 
I’m a History-wired person. Before the Russians (Muscovites) started to take all these territories known as Russia today starting from the 1600’s, The entire area was known as “The khanate of the Golden Horde” (the continuation of the Mongol Empire in that area). So one by one, they took out many of these areas and made their way to the Black sea in the south, and the Pacific to the East.
 
So my argument stands: There is 85 states within the Russian Federation. Some of them are asking for independence (like Chechnya). The only solution is a Germany style Federal (democratic government). Not an empire.

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Anomalocratis: "I think that came from Nazi era propaganda depicting the Russians as “asiatic hordes” in the most derogatory sense."

It’s not derogatory. It’s History. The reason why I said this is that some of the Ukrainian Propaganda is stating that there are many parts of the Russian Federation who will want to break away from Russia when the war in Ukraine is over. This is the same line of thinking as those who say that Russia must be strong and must remain an empire.

 
   I think they can keep this multiculturalism (inherited from the Soviet era) and be a Germany style Natio-Federation that respects the rights of minorities and the Slavic majority and thus move forward like that (instead of trying to take Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, etc.).
 
   I they go on with this mentality, they might even end up conceding territory back to China in the east and, eventually disintegrate more. And I don’t like that idea that much

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Later comments:

 

Russia is said to be replenishing it’s tanks at a rate of 100 a month. They still have this huge war industry that this pro-Russia friend of ours (Bellaqua) was talking about.  

 

The Task of Ukraine is not an easy task. They’ll have to keep killing all these armored vehicles as they arrive

 
Still the economy is going bad. Russian economy cannot sustain this war indefinitely. Some of their tankers are now in the middle of the Ocean with nowhere to go.

Nonsense. Russia produced a grand total of 210 tanks in all of 2023, a sevenfold increase from the year prior.....according to russia....and no one believes that number. Certainly not the russian soldiers. Their ability to replace tanks is not an indication of a huge war industry, but of a huge stockpile of soviet era gear in armored boneyards. If those 5/6/7 series tanks were brand new, fully functional, and not stripped for parts, they would still be obsolete. Their armor can be defeated by 20+mm depleted uranium rounds and their main cannons are outranged by contemporary shoulder fired AT systems. Ukraine has destroyed ten times as many tanks as russia can produced in the course of a year...and this is limited only to independent visually confirmed losses. In sum, russia has lost decades of it's own production, and decades of the production of a country that no longer exists which it has no hope of matching, all so that it can launch mechanized meat assaults with a horrific cost to crew - which are even harder for russia to come by and take even longer to produce than a decent tank. Ironically, ukraine was the heart of soviet war production, and to this day makes the most modern and combat capable version of the ubiquitous 7 series soviet tank. For Some Odd Reason™ the russian forces haven't even tried to take out their refineries and production facilities. Choosing to level apartment blocks instead.

Fun fact. The Bradley is credited with more tank kills than any contemporary mbt, and not by a little. In the battle of 73 Easting two Bradley IFVs from ghost troop, separated from their Abrams, ambushed 9 T72 tanks. They destroyed 5 of them, crippled the others...and then just left without a scratch. If we're looking at boneyards as "production" the us has 3700 in storage, all of them better maintained than any active armor in the russian military, and it's cheaper to send them to ukraine than to dismantle them, as already ordered by the dod. This is why putins regime feels that the most crucial factor in their invasion of ukraine is buying off republicans in the united states, and even there, the dipshit is overpaying. They're so far up the donalds asshole they'd fuck ukraine for free.

‘SEND MORE RUSSIAN TANKS!!’ - Unofficial motto of the AFU

Boru

I take it, if I am reading correctly, that Russia may run out of tanks, or at least lose more than they can produce?

There's no may. They already lose more than they can produce - many times over. The real trouble isn't the loss of tanks, though. It's crews. They'll run out of gunners before they run out of museum pieces. According to russian tank crews, they already have - which might explain their truly impressive rate of loss.

(January 30, 2024 at 12:06 pm)The Grand Nudger Wrote: There's no may. They already lose more than they can produce - many times over. The real trouble isn't the loss of tanks, though. It's crews. They'll run out of gunners before they run out of museum pieces. According to russian tank crews, they already have - which might explain their truly impressive rate of loss.

I guess the may part may have been said by me to apply to the losing all their tanks part only. Still…

The Russians aren’t truly getting anywhere with this war, and they seem to be becoming a joke with how they are doing in this war.

It's that last thing that really put them in a pickle, I think. Putin can't win, but he also can't be seen to be weak. They've already gone through the stage of grief where the Master Strategists generals betrayed him - that didn't take, so now prigo is dead and girkin is convicted. I think that hostilities will continue in some form or another until the people (then) remaining in the russian admin can figure out who to blame it all on.

That said, I just had a thought.

Russia is doing poorly right now, right? Well, at this rate, if that continues, it will get to the point that even if Ukraine really starts to lose manpower, the Russias will have a hard time turning the tide by then, especially if they continue to lose manpower and weapons.

I mean, North Korea and Iran keep sending Russia weapons, but what good are those if Russia loses a lot of manpower, let alone don’t have the right people to operate those weapons?

With that, things don’t look that good for Russia so far.

I think it's safe to assume that ukraine has already suffered tremendous casualties - we know that was one point of disagreement between us planners and ukranian commanders that hampered the counteroffensive over the summer. This slow rolling retreat - except for when they just drop their shit and bolt in civvy clothes, is as best as russia can take advantage of that misfortune. Two months from now they'll be even less capable of taking advantage - as the attritional phases of this war have seen russias force and force projection fade while ukraine gains new tech, new ability, and much more experience - owing in large part to the ukranian strategy of husbanding their resources even when it pisses off their american partners.

(January 30, 2024 at 2:03 pm)The Grand Nudger Wrote: I think it's safe to assume that ukraine has already suffered tremendous casualties - we know that was one point of disagreement between us planners and ukranian commanders that hampered the counteroffensive over the summer. This slow rolling retreat - except for when they just drop their shit and bolt in civvy clothes, is as best as russia can take advantage of that misfortune. Two months from now they'll be even less capable of taking advantage - as the attritional phases of this war have seen russias force and force projection fade while ukraine gains new tech, new ability, and much more experience - owing in large part to the ukranian strategy of husbanding their resources even when it pisses off their american partners.

Speaking of American partners, I wonder how hard is it for the USA to give support Ukraine right now? Any hindrances?