Well, I can see a lot of points being made.

Still, I do not think Ukraine can keep this up forever. I wonder if their being a smaller nation than Russia and possibly less of a size of a population will have any impact toward the outcome of this war?

(January 18, 2024 at 3:26 pm)Anomalocaris Wrote: i think russians have simplified their approach after their initial efforts to be fancy have all failed.   they’ve fallen back on the simple fact that russia is bigger, more populous and richer than ukraine by a big enough margin so that she can outlast western support and run ukraine out of money and manpower.

ukraine overestimated the significance of her own initial success and the value of fancy western weapons to the fundamental balance of power,  and also continue to overestimate the real value of emotionally satisfying pin pricks she successfully publicized as glorious triumphs,  so ukraine has not yet rationalized her own approach based on her position as russia has.

so at the beginning the russians made all the blunders.   since last spring the russians have done well and ukraine is making all the blunders.

Russia never did well enough to suffer from victory disease but remains fundamentally the stronger side.   ukraine continues to suffer from victory disease even while balance of power tilts further away from her.

Bull, you are pulling shit out of your arse as per usual

Ukriane/Zelensky, and top military officials KEEP telling, since DAY ONE of western support that they need more, MUCH more.
They keep doing this almost every fucking day. Under which rock are you living?

Will ukraine being a smaller nation, I suppose we mean in brute demographics here, matter?  IDK.  Depends.  In general, invaders suffer an outsized portion of total casualties.  Worries about whether they can keep this up forever are all out of whack.  We should be worried that they have to put up for it for even one day more.  Once you start wondering about what it takes to break a person the number of people is a sideline.

They did well when they didn't break at the outset. They might break because of a single death tomorrow. As far as brute demographics are concerned, russia didn't have enough people to win at the very beginning, and they have fewer people now than then. I think, as ukraine keeps saying, that russia can only win if the world..effectively or officially, sides with russia. They bit off more than they could chew, without help, flat out. Russia knows this too, that's why they go all MAD at each successive suggestion of western equipment. They've been on the other end of our stuff, and it never goes well for them. It only takes a handful of operators with a few minutes to spare to execute hundreds of russian mercs.

(January 17, 2024 at 10:29 am)The Grand Nudger Wrote: Russia doesn't have air superiority for the f16s to take.

Watch my previous video. Ukraine has Soviet era Su-27’s. These have almost no chance against more advanced Su-35’s etc. So if a Russian airplane is coming. They have to flee.
 
Of course they have Javelin rocket launchers + other air defense systems like the patriot missiles. But with a fleet of F-16’s + western provided missiles that go with it, they will be able to take on the Su-35’s and therefore (if I am understanding correctly) they will be able to hit more onto the Russian fortified defenses giving more chance to the Leo tanks to break through these defenses.
 
Also: I found this video of Bradley Infantry fighting vehicles destroying the Russian Armata tank (aided by a drone).

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Modernite’s comment on pan-Slavism:
 
See the recent events in the Bashkir Region:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/17...hkortostan
 
Half of Russia’s population (perhaps more) are Turkic people (not Slavs).
 
This is why Russia is not a nation-state proper but a federation.
 
That’s the only thing it can be. It’s a multi-cultural federation in which the Russian ethnic group is the main element.           
 
This pushes some people to believe that it has to turn into an empire once again. My view is that the Democratic Federation model is the most logical model in the short and longer term.

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Dugin’s assassination:
 
Every month or so someone is falling from a window, is found dead at the bottom of some stairs, has been poisoned with novatchev or something like that. That’s what happens when you have a spy for president.
 
And Historically: It reminds me of the East-Roman way of doing things. They also had these emperors found dead in the swimming pool, high officials found estranged in some places, Generals taking arms against Byzantium and then asserting themselves as the new emperor etc. (just as a note for those interested in ancient history )

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There is also the topography of Ukraine. You can resist a stronger force if you have element like hills, dense forests or jungles and marshes from which you can carry out hit and run strikes.
 
Holding and stabilizing an opponent like Russia (that has tanks and airplanes) on the open field is not (militarily speaking) such an easy task.
 
So Ukrainians must be good and so is whatever military expertise it is that is backing them.

That's a T-90, not an Armata.

(January 18, 2024 at 10:53 am)HappySkeptic Wrote:

(January 18, 2024 at 10:16 am)modernite Wrote: The higher-ups, especially the CIA, are infamous for targeting family members and friends when they cant get to the core target.

I'm calling bull on this one.  Are you saying the CIA went after Dugin's daughter, or you just making a general statement?

Please point me to reliable sources that show that the CIA targets family members of targets for death, instead of the main target.  Please explain how this achieves any sort of valid political goal.

It is common sense, basic terror tactics. What is the best way to terrorize, torture, someone? Target their family and loved ones. Cartels do this, gangs do this, and government agencies are just, by essence, rich gangs.

(January 19, 2024 at 7:30 am)Leonardo17 Wrote:

(January 17, 2024 at 10:29 am)The Grand Nudger Wrote: Russia doesn't have air superiority for the f16s to take.

Watch my previous video. Ukraine has Soviet era Su-27’s. These have almost no chance against more advanced Su-35’s etc. So if a Russian airplane is coming. They have to flee.
 
Of course they have Javelin rocket launchers + other air defense systems like the patriot missiles. But with a fleet of F-16’s + western provided missiles that go with it, they will be able to take on the Su-35’s and therefore (if I am understanding correctly) they will be able to hit more onto the Russian fortified defenses giving more chance to the Leo tanks to break through these defenses.
 
Also: I found this video of Bradley Infantry fighting vehicles destroying the Russian Armata tank (aided by a drone).

---

---

Modernite’s comment on pan-Slavism:
 
See the recent events in the Bashkir Region:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/17...hkortostan
 
Half of Russia’s population (perhaps more) are Turkic people (not Slavs).
 
This is why Russia is not a nation-state proper but a federation.
 
That’s the only thing it can be. It’s a multi-cultural federation in which the Russian ethnic group is the main element.           
 
This pushes some people to believe that it has to turn into an empire once again. My view is that the Democratic Federation model is the most logical model in the short and longer term.

---

---

Dugin’s assassination:
 
Every month or so someone is falling from a window, is found dead at the bottom of some stairs, has been poisoned with novatchev or something like that. That’s what happens when you have a spy for president.
 
And Historically: It reminds me of the East-Roman way of doing things. They also had these emperors found dead in the swimming pool, high officials found estranged in some places, Generals taking arms against Byzantium and then asserting themselves as the new emperor etc. (just as a note for those interested in ancient history )

---

---

There is also the topography of Ukraine. You can resist a stronger force if you have element like hills, dense forests or jungles and marshes from which you can carry out hit and run strikes.
 
Holding and stabilizing an opponent like Russia (that has tanks and airplanes) on the open field is not (militarily speaking) such an easy task.
 
So Ukrainians must be good and so is whatever military expertise it is that is backing them.

Where are you pulling your figures that half of people are turkic, instead slavic? Out of your butt? According to a 2021 census, atleast 81% of people in Russia are ethnic russians, who are slavic.

(January 18, 2024 at 11:51 am)The Grand Nudger Wrote: The cia didn't have shit to do with it.  Dugin had switched cars with his daughter.

What's interesting, in the russian retelling of events, is that the fsb had some warning, and had relayed it to dugin.  So, you know, what better way to prevent your own assassination than to switch cars with your...um....daughter....?

You know what's more logical? Dont have either party go into the car in the first place. You really believe that Dugin would throw his own daughter away like that? Do you have any sources that Dugin would do that?

(January 19, 2024 at 7:30 am)Leonardo17 Wrote:

(January 17, 2024 at 10:29 am)The Grand Nudger Wrote: Russia doesn't have air superiority for the f16s to take.

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Modernite’s comment on pan-Slavism:
 
See the recent events in the Bashkir Region:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/17...hkortostan
 
Half of Russia’s population (perhaps more) are Turkic people (not Slavs).
 
This is why Russia is not a nation-state proper but a federation.
 
That’s the only thing it can be. It’s a multi-cultural federation in which the Russian ethnic group is the main element.           
 
This pushes some people to believe that it has to turn into an empire once again. My view is that the Democratic Federation model is the most logical model in the short and longer term.

It is absurd to proclaim that half of Russia is Turkic instead of Slavic. According to the 2021 census, 81% of people are ethnic Russians, which is slavic.

Also, to proclaim that half of Russians are Turkic is absurd, when according to the 2021 census, atleast 71% of individuals are ethnic Russians, who are slavic.