Russia has everything they need to win this war. Except for, you know, munitions, supplies, logistics, tactics, strategy, training, leadership, and motivation.

Other than that, they’re golden.

Boru

(May 24, 2024 at 7:03 am)The Grand Nudger Wrote: For a more sober analysis of why it's going as demonstrably poor for russia as it is, as hard as it is to take anything russia-related seriously anymore.....russian intelligence had to get three crucial things wrong, and all at the same time, for ukraine to have so much as a chance.  It probably seemed unlikely, on the russian end, that they would get all three wrong in that way.  The resistance of ukrainian defenders.  They believed there would be parades.  Their influence in us politics, they believed that they could prevent us aid.  That there was a disagreement between The West as to whether or not they would support ukraine.  Turns out there was a disagreement between western partners as to whether or not russia would be so foolish - thus a lack of preparedness.  

Notice that "believed their troops were better equipped or trained or would perform better on the field or would be less corrupt" was not included.  This is not an unintentional omission.  I think russia knew exactly what kind of army it was going to take to war - see their target selection.  They knew...long before anyone else...that they didn't have much, and that what they had was shit.  I apologize if I get easily irritated by seeing the question "when will the russians run out of gear" when they've been sending museum pieces to the front as fast as they can for some time now just to get blown up impotently while thousands of men are cut down around them.  If the us army was raiding the infantry museum in georgia for spare parts and whole kit as it lost half the landmass....no one would ask when we would run out of stuff.  Imagine, if you will.... an armed convoy of rebels advancing directly on washington with no resistance to speak of.  The moment, in that case, had clearly already arrived.  

There are questions that, honestly, make the whole thing moot, too.  For example..is russian life so worthless to the russian administration that it doesn't and never would matter when or if they ran out of gear?

There is one issue I would like to mention here and that is that dictators are usually very poorly informed. Like Hitler attacking Russia after obtaining a non-aggression pact with Stalin. He overestimated his own army (like Napoleon before him) and destroyed everything he built during all these years (assuming that he had the capacity to defeat the allies in the long of middle term of course).
 
There are many reasons to this:
 

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1) Its their own ego or hubris if you want. That is why in ancient Sparta they had two kings. The duty of the second king was to protect the first king from giving in to his own ego-induced madness.
 
2) Propaganda is basically madness. Once you start feeding an entire population with lies on the so called greatness and power of a country, creating imaginary enemies, imaginary struggles and wars etc. how long does it take for the governing elites to start believing in their own lies and fantasies?
 
/ So republican ideals are not just renaissance era idealisms. It’s a practical way of doing things that is designed to have society work in the best possible way (taking into consideration all human weaknesses that are present within each and every one of us)
 

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ATACMS are destroying Russian S-300 / S-400 air defenses, paving the way for better use of F-16’s + Glide bombs by the Ukrainians:

The exiled wagnerites are back in ukraine after russia pulled it's africa corp off of farming blood diamonds to be fed to the ukranian sausage mills.

Their borders are undefended and their foreign interests are being abandoned. They couldn't afford to kill the traitorous mercs when they marched on moscow and are forced to rely on them again. What could go wrong?

The Black Sea Fleet gains a couple more subs:

Quote:On May 30, 2024, Ukrainian naval drones struck four Russian Tunets-class boats in Crimea, with two of the vessels confirmed destroyed. The strike, executed by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate and spearheaded by the elite Special Forces unit "Group 13," marks a significant escalation in the ongoing naval conflict in the Black Sea. This operation underscores the increasing effectiveness of Ukraine's advanced drone warfare capabilities against Russian naval ships.

The operation used Magura V5 naval drones, part of Ukraine's advanced maritime warfare arsenal. These drones have been pivotal in previous successful missions, targeting and disabling several Russian ships, including the Ivan Hurs, Ivanovets, and Sergei Kotov.

[...]

According to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate, the recent attack destroyed two CS-701 "Tunets" transport-landing boats and damaged two others. These vessels were reportedly used by Russian forces for logistics and patrol operations around the occupied peninsula of Crimea.

The CS-701 "Tunets" is a transport-landing boat used by the Russian military for logistics and patrol operations, particularly in coastal and nearshore areas.

https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/nav...-in-crimea

There is a lack of coordination in the Ukrainian defense front. Precious Abrams / Challenger and Leopard tanks are designed to operate together with artillery and aviation. Belgium recently donated some 30 additional F-16’s so this gap is set to be filled at some point. But the loss of these advanced tanks because of a lack of air superiority and artillery (and infantry support actually) is a sad thing.
 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-abrams-tan...11636.html

It's impressive how the links in the article don't actually say anything that the article claims they do...but not surprising that abrams isn't a bigger threat on the field. They were sent to ukraine for a specific purpose, and ukraine decided not to do the thing. Meanwhile, bradleys have always been the superior tank killer (in practice, as opposed to on-paper)..even when the abrams were fully supported and being used as intended by well trained american crews. In a battlefield shaped by drones it has a benefit over abrams it was not explicitly designed for in that the main gun has programmable airburst rounds and can reliably fire 200 rpm.

..and...as luck would have it, the main thing you'd want an abrams for - it's gun in a tank on tank battle with what few modern mbts russia has left, isn't much of an issue since the t90 can be disabled by repeated kinetic shocks to the turret..the kind that happen when a couple of brads wont stop pelting you with those 200rpms. Hence the russian tanks losing main gun battles to ifvs without the need for the tow missiles deployment.

The us has more bradleys in storage than russia has tanks. Sometimes the solution finds you..especially when it's full of infantry running on caffeine, nicotine, and hate.

-we'll soon see a similar wave of disappointment in f16s - as people believe they will be used in roles they absolutely will not be. I suspect they'll put an end to russias glide bombing, which is the only volume weapon russia appears to have left since their tanks are trash and their artillery has shut up...but it won't be out there dogfighting su over ukranian cities or providing cas on the killing fields. Ukraine has been degrading russian aa assets for months and is set to get awacs with link16 - allowing the patriots, nasams, and f16s to share targeting data on low flying threats in radar clutter hundreds of km into russia. The short version is that the f16s and ground batteries will be able to lock and fire at su that they can't see, from positions where the su's can't see them, well beyond release range for glide bombs, and this is how they'll be used.

USA and Germany now allow Ukraine to attack, with the weapons they supply, military targets in russian territory.

(May 31, 2024 at 1:43 pm)Deesse23 Wrote: USA and Germany now allow Ukraine to attack, with the weapons they supply, military targets in russian territory.

Within forty km of the border. We still haven't learnt the lesson of Vietnam, that wars should not be subject to arbitrary rules. This still plays directly into Russian hands.

Which, conveniently, is the distance russian aircraft release their glide bombs from. The whole thing is pretty narrowly crafted and, like usual, a response to vlad the master strategist continuing his campaign to reduce ukranian apartment blocks rathr than military equipment. They hand zelenskyy another free ticket to the candy shop every time and never learn from the mistake.