Russia and Ukraine

[The Grand Nudger]

That's probably part of the calculation (hard to see how it couldn't be). Putin doesn't expect any nuclear power to scorch the earth over the fate of ukraine.

[Pat Mustard]

PS any Russian occupation outside of the small slivers of failed state territories in the Donbass it's vassal breakaway states already hold will cause problems that will eclipse Vietnam, every single day of said occupation.

The notion that Russian occupation of Ukraine will be mired in a popular guerrilla war is very likely a pleasant mirage.

Well, considering that the Russian army couldn't supply its own soldiers with basic foodstuffs in its own army basis before the invasion, I don't think there'll be too much trouble organising an effective guerrilla campaign. Ireland managed it against the UK at the very height of their powers, a beat up Russia will be much easier to mire in the muck.

[onlinebiker]

Why is Putin doing this?

Jodie Foster wasn' t paying attention.


So he' s doing it to impress Ivanka Trump....


...

Now you know....

[Pat Mustard]

Nothing to add except damn this is really sad. I was hoping this wasn’t going to go down.

Putin can suck my asshole.

well, from 2000-2005, Putin did his best to try to accommodate Russia as it existed then with NATO and the US.  

If Putain tried to accomodate Russia with NATO between 2000 and 2005 he would have signed the membership treaty the US was waving in his face at the time.

[Anomalocaris]

I'd like to know a thing I can't know for the moment because this information isn't public and will maybe be never published or after my death (I'm 28 years old. If the information is released in 100 years or more I would be dead accorded to medical knowledge of nowadays).

This thing is the next. The president of Russian Federation initially wanted to put Ukraine under pressure (When Russians troops were around the border between the two states) or he did prepared invasion for month or years ?

If Russia invades fully the Ukrainian territory.
Does it means Putin will attack a country member of European Union or / and a NATO member ?

If the President of Russia attack an EU country.
What will do others members of this union ? In this case I hope they will fight (Military or / and non-military) with the party under attack by any means.
EU countries have the legal obligation to assist each others in case of an attack.

If the Russian President choose to attack a state member of NATO. In this case I hope they will fight (Military or / and non-military) with the party under attack by any means.
Think about article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. It can be used. It can maybe finish in a nuclear war.
War isn't fun , war is devastating for all parties involved , war with two sides who have an access to nuclear weapons is terrifying if a faction or both choose to use these.

Full extract of article 5 in English :
"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security"

Link to the treaty on official NATO website : https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/off..._17120.htm
Text is available in 27 languages (Some of them aren't languages of NATO members. The language of some members isn't available) : Albanian , Armenian , Croatian , Czech , Danish , Dutch , English , Estonian , French , Georgian , German , Greek , Hebrew , Hungarian , Icelandic , Italian , Latvian , Lithuanian , Norwegian , Polish , Portuguese , Russian , Slovenian , Spanish , Turkish , Ukrainian.

Full extract of article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations (There are a reference to it in article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty) :
"Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. Measures taken by Members in the exercise of this right of self-defence shall be immediately reported to the Security Council and shall not in any way affect the authority and responsibility of the Security Council under the present Charter to take at any time such action as it deems necessary in order to maintain or restore international peace and security."

Link to the charter on official UN website (Text available in the six official languages of UN that are Arabic , Chinese , English , French , Russian , Spanish) : https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter

Ukraine is neither a part of NATO nor a part of EU.   Clearly Russia is absolutely determined to make 100% certain it never would be part of either.      As to whether in the future Russia would attack a actual NATO country that depends on if NATO/US actions over the next few years confine Russia that having more strategic depth than afforded by Ukraine is indispensable to long term Russia security and position.     As to what NATO will do in reaction, that depends, imho, on precisely which NATO country may be in the cross hair, and how determined the US is to keep China from rising as a Euroasia hegemony, or at least East Asia Hegemon.

If the US is absolutely determined to remain the global hegemon, then it would be more important for the US to prevent China from taking Taiwan than to prevent Russia from taking, say the Baltic republics.     So if the Russians coordinate its attack on the Baltic republic with a Chinese attack on Taiwan,  there is a high chance that the US would elect to focus on protecting Taiwan rather than Baltic republics.     If the US takes large losses defending Taiwan, or loses Taiwan, the. Baltic republics would be goners.    

On the other hand, if Russia strikes at Poland, or Romania, then I think the US might become concerned Russia really is going restore the former Soviet defensive sphere.   In this case it would be harder to say which the US would prioritize, containing China or Russia.

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well, from 2000-2005, Putin did his best to try to accommodate Russia as it existed then with NATO and the US.  

If Putain tried to accomodate Russia with NATO between 2000 and 2005 he would have signed the membership treaty the US was waving in his face at the time.

No, the us waved no such treaty in Russia’s face.  Putin suggested Russia may join NATO on the same terms as Ukraine during a televised interview,   The US laughed it off and called the idea ridiculous.

[brewer]

Can the west create a false flag attack against Poland or Lithuania and then go in and kick the shit out of Belarus and some Russians?

What's good for the goose................. Nothing wrong with playing Putins game.

[Anomalocaris]

Can the west create a false flag attack against Poland or Lithuania and then go in and kick the shit out of Belarus and some Russians?

What's good for the goose................. Nothing wrong with playing Putins game.

4000+ nuclear weapons ought to prompt more reflection.

but even more saliently, there is no deployable force in europe than can take on the russian army at or near its home.   certainly no european country singly or collectively come close.  The fact that US military has shifted from focusing on fighting a peer enemy in a mechanized war to fighting insurgents in the middle east and perspective fighting on islands in the south china sea means even the US army is probably incapable of taking on the russian army inside russian sphere of influence. 

Also, if the US gets embroiled in a land war with Russia, bye bye taiwan.   And the US would probably lose in europe too.

[The Grand Nudger]

One supposes that this is also good advice for a russian leader. Evergreen, really.

[Anomalocaris]

One supposes that this is also good advice for a russian leader.  Evergreen, really.

they don’t need this advice.   the US may use its own 4000 nukes at the risk of placing herself on the receiving end of 4000 russian nukes if the US herself is being attacked.    just as the russians may use her 4000 nukes at risk of placing herself at the risk of receiving 4000 russian nukes.   Neither will risk receiving nuclear warheads for less.  Both know it, 

But let’s cut the bull shit.   what russia had at stake is her immediate safety.  what the us has at stake is the ability to boss around people on a different continent an ocean away, not her immediate safety.

russia does not risk attack from american nuclear weapons by attacking ukraine.   the US does risk attack from russian nuclear weapons if it launches a false flag operation to attach russian neighbors who had been former soviet republics.

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Basically, Russian nuclear arsenal becomes almost useless if Ukraine joins nato.  Basically, trying to incorporate Ukraine into NATO is, from the perspective of Russia’s strategic position and safety, the equivalent of a slow motion nuclear first strike aimed to take out Russian nuclear arsenal without Russia being able to launch a counter strike.

It was a 15 year long insanity for the west to expect the Russians would wait for the strike to land without doing anything that would definitively stop it.

[The Grand Nudger]

What strike? Ukraine is under attack, not russia.

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Additionally, just so I understand, what part of denazification and saving ethnic russians from genocide does that justification for war..against ukraine...fall under?