Russia and Ukraine

[Anomalocaris]

I am surprised he was actually dumb enough to deliver himself into Putin’s hands.   He was just a brutal thug, but I didn’t think he was actually that stupid.   I would be curious to know what Putin offered to lure him to Moscow, or if in fact he came against his will or came already dead, or he was just resigned to the fact that unless he wanted to eek out a few more month like a rat bolting from hole to hole one step ahead of FSB/KGB assassin squads, he was dead anyway and just wanted to get it over with.

Maybe as Hitler had done with Rommel, Putin offered to not touch his family if he consented to actively collaborated in the death Putin planned  for him.  Given the fact that Putin delivered a backhanded eulogy and a wreath to his family, I suspect that is what happened.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Guess he should have went bang bang back when they were within rocket range of the kremlin.

It was a shit-show from the get-go. Prigozhyn overplayed his hand, trying to intimidate Putin by taking a city of 13 million with a few thousand troops. They would have been crushed no matter what, albeit with much angst and perhaps Putin falling in a few weeks ... after Wagnerites had been exterminated.

When the time came to shit or get off'n the pot, Prig shat himself and then tried to find the commode. Too late, dude, the brown has hit your jeans and everyone can see it. Moral of the story: don't bluff if you can't back it up. It's not like they could guard supply lines or whatnot. Sure, you can gas up at a station, and grab food from stores, but you will run out of ammo.

[Thumpalumpacus]

I am surprised he was actually dumb enough to deliver himself into Putin’s hands.   He was just a brutal thug, but I didn’t think he was actually that stupid.   I would be curious to know what Putin offered to lure him to Moscow, or if in fact he came against his will or came already dead, or he was just resigned to the fact that unless he wanted to eek out a few more month like a rat bolting from hole to hole one step ahead of FSB/KGB assassin squads, he was dead anyway and just wanted to get it over with.

Maybe as Hitler had done with Rommel, Putin offered to not touch his family if he consented to actively collaborated in the death Putin planned  for him.  Given the fact that Putin delivered a backhanded eulogy and a wreath to his family, I suspect that is what happened.

I think Prig thought he might be able to rescue African ops -- and of course the sideline gigs Wagner had there with gold and other extractables -- in order to maintain an income stream that was being cut off by government investigations into Wagner finances. Kremlin funding was down the shitter, but maybe we can smuggle gold or wood or diamonds to keep it all afloat? I mean, a man's gotta eat.

You might be right that he was offered the Family Meal Deal, but was Prigozhin stupid enough to believe that?

In any event, Prig was stupid to trust any Russian airspace -- or promise -- at all.

[The Grand Nudger]

The time between the psuedo coup and the killing suggest that putin or putins handlers were unsure of his position and security. That there was work to do before they could safely dispose of the caterer. In the end, Prigo may have helped putin domestically by exposing the capos who were already eying the ring for themselves or someone else - but none of this is good for russia in ukraine.

[Anomalocaris]

The fact that amongst Prigozhin’s supporters were senior active Russian military officers, who possibly knew of the upcoming coup and may even have directly or indirectly participated in it, means  in the immediate aftermath of the coup Putin could not have been completely certain of his own control over the Russian military, intelligence and internal security.     So putin’s  first priority must have been to make absolutely sure of the loyalty of key state apparatus and purge all suspected officers and officials.    That must take absolute precedence over killing or apprehending Progizhin.

Once Putin and Russian Security services turned their attention to Prigozhin, they must contend with the fact that a man like Prigozhin could never have lived as long as he did without access to extensive, effective and loyal personal security resources.   So if Prigozhin wasn’t actually in Russia where he and his security detail could be surrounded and overwhelmed in a coup de main,  then it would take time and preparation to locate and isolate Prigozhin, narrowing his options, close off his avenue of escape, and deny him his access to his security and financial resources.

An additional complexity is no doubt the fact that the collapse of the coup found Prigozhin in Balerus.    Although Balerus’s dictator Alexander Lukashenko is often portrayed as Putin’s stooge,  in reality he is likely a equally cunning and ruthless autocrat in his own right, and quite as capable of playing the hand he is dealt to a nicety as Putin.   So knowing prigozhin is a most wanted man in Putinland, Lukashenko no doubt protected prigozhin as long as he believed he could continue to raise the asking price for cutting prigozhin loose.     Part of the price he demanded is probably the deployment of Russian nuclear forces to Balerus to,increase his own leverage and bargaining power with respect to Poland and NATO, as well as increase his chances of getting something out of any eventual peace or cease fire in Ukraine.

[Deesse23]

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

I think some people are attributing a level of strategic planning to a thugocracy that has proven - time and time again - that it isn't very good at strategic planning (source: recent events).

Boru

[Thumpalumpacus]

It's a lot simpler. Putin started defunding Wagner, waited until they started drifting away, and then made his move, now assured that Wagner was in no position to respond.

[Anomalocaris]

It has been suggested that assassination may be an GRU initiative.    The GRU is Russian defense ministry’s intelligence arm.    GRU’s scope of responsibilities are broader than typical military intelligence arms around the world, and include operational control over many of Russia’s special forces and chemical warfare units,  and more critically, control of ground and air defenses for critical areas inside Russia, including air defense missile units around Moscow.     GRU has been responsible for many of the assassinations often attributed in the west to the KGB, and the GRU is believed to be responsible for the recent nerve gas assassination attempts against Russian dissident and defectors in the UK and Germany.    GRU is often regarded as more powerful than the KGB/FSB both in the Soviet era and particularly after the fall of the Soviet Union.    The Russian servicemen killed by prigozhin’s men during the coup is said to be from the GRU, not regular Russian military units.

It has also been pointed out that Putin has made it a point to always keep promises he had explicitly made, and that at the end of the coup he had made the promise to protect Prigozhin provided Progizhin lived up to certain conditions.    If in fact the assassination was an independent initiative by the GRU, it would suggest the GRU is in the ascendant in Russia and the former KGB colonel’s control over Russia is circumscribed.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

According to TASS, Russia is withdrawing all T14 tanks from the battlefield. The interesting thing is that the T14 has never been seen on the battlefield.

Boru